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The Invisible Plumes

Wednesday, 12 November 2025 04:01

Summary

Methane, a greenhouse gas with a warming potential approximately 80 times that of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period, represents the fastest available target for slowing near-term global warming11,17. A revolution in satellite technology has provided the capability to pinpoint the exact location and magnitude of major leaks, known as 'super-emitters,' across the planet5,10. Despite this unprecedented clarity, the vast majority of alerts flagged to governments and energy companies are being ignored3,5. The International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) has reported that only a small fraction of thousands of alerts detected in the oil and gas sector have resulted in confirmed action to plug the leaks5,7. This systemic failure to act on readily available, actionable data undermines international climate commitments, including the Global Methane Pledge, which aims for a 30 per cent reduction in emissions by 203013,15. Furthermore, satellite surveys have exposed major uncertainties in the reported emissions from the waste sector, suggesting that the true scale of the problem from landfills and dumping sites is poorly understood and underestimated2,12. The collective inaction on these visible, yet unaddressed, plumes represents a critical failure in global climate governance, squandering the opportunity for 'easy wins' in the race to limit planetary heating5.

The Potency of the Invisible Gas

The global climate crisis is often framed through the lens of carbon dioxide, yet methane, the primary component of natural gas, plays a disproportionately powerful role in near-term warming17. While carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for centuries, methane is a short-lived climate pollutant, but its potency is staggering11,17. Over a 20-year period, methane has a warming impact approximately 80 times greater than carbon dioxide11,17. This characteristic makes the rapid reduction of methane emissions the single most effective measure available to slow the rate of global temperature increase in the immediate future5,17. Methane is responsible for roughly one-third of the global warming experienced to date1,14. The urgency of addressing this gas led to the creation of the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) in 2021, a voluntary framework signed by over 150 countries, committing them to collectively reduce global human-driven methane emissions by 30 per cent by 2030 from 2020 levels7,13,15. Achieving this goal could eliminate over 0.2 degrees Celsius of warming by 205013. The primary anthropogenic sources of methane are diverse, including agriculture, waste management, coal mining, and the oil and gas sector9,12. The oil and gas industry, in particular, is a major focus for mitigation efforts, as leaks from its infrastructure are often transient, large, and technically straightforward to repair5,17.

The Orbital Watchmen and Super-Emitters

A technological revolution in orbital monitoring has transformed the ability to detect and quantify methane emissions, moving the issue from theoretical models to verifiable, facility-level data5,11. The International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO), an initiative of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), integrates data from over 17 satellites to observe methane plumes5,6. This network includes large-scale public missions and commercial constellations11. Key instruments and missions now in operation include the European Space Agency’s Copernicus satellites, such as Sentinel-5P, Sentinel-3, and Sentinel-2, which are used in a tiered approach to identify methane hotspots8. The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on Sentinel-5P provides daily global coverage, which is then used to ‘tip-and-cue’ higher-resolution instruments for precise source identification9,12. Private companies like Montreal-based GHGSat operate their own constellations, with 12 of their 13 satellites dedicated to methane monitoring5. NASA’s Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) mission, installed on the International Space Station, has also demonstrated a crucial capability in detecting methane, identifying more than 50 'super-emitters' across Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Southwestern United States10. These super-emitters are defined by the Environmental Protection Agency as facilities or infrastructure that emit 100 kilograms or more of methane per hour11. A small number of these sources are responsible for a disproportionately large fraction of total anthropogenic emissions9,12. For example, EMIT detected 12 plumes streaming from oil and gas infrastructure east of Hazar, Turkmenistan, with some plumes stretching for more than 32 kilometres10. The ability to pinpoint these sources with high spatial resolution, sometimes down to 20 metres, has eliminated the industry’s long-standing defence of uncertainty regarding the location and magnitude of leaks8,11.

The Silence After the Alarm

Despite the precision and volume of data now available, the response from the entities responsible for the leaks—governments and oil and gas companies—has been overwhelmingly inadequate4,6. The core finding from recent UN reports is that most major methane leak alerts are being ignored3. The IMEO’s Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) remotely detects the colourless gas and flags the emissions to the relevant authorities5. From 3,500 alerts detected across the oil and gas sector, the IMEO received only a 12 per cent response rate5,6. This figure represents a limited improvement from the previous year, when only one per cent of alerts resulted in action to prevent the leaks5,6. In a more specific analysis, the UN Environment Programme notified governments and companies of more than 1,200 methane leaks in the oil and gas sector detected by satellite data, yet action was taken or promised in only 15 of these cases4,7. This means that almost 99 per cent of the UN reports on methane emissions were effectively ignored by the responsible parties4. The executive director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, expressed disillusionment, noting that actions remain too slow and that fixing leaks from venting and flaring are 'rather easy wins' that cannot be ignored5. The failure to act is not merely a matter of oversight; it is a systemic accountability deficit14. A report by the Carbon Tracker think tank highlighted that many oil and gas companies’ targets to reduce methane emissions are incomplete4. These targets often exclude joint ventures, which can account for a large proportion of a company’s emissions, as well as pipelines and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) tankers4. Furthermore, many companies rely on estimation models for their emissions instead of more costly but accurate direct measurements, leading to a scepticism regarding the credibility of their stated reduction goals4.

The Hidden Emissions of the Waste Sector

While the oil and gas sector is a major focus for mitigation, the waste sector, primarily landfills and dumping sites, is another significant source of anthropogenic methane, accounting for about 10 per cent of the global total2,12. The same satellite technology that monitors fossil fuel infrastructure has been deployed to survey waste disposal sites, revealing a profound uncertainty in current emission estimates2,12. A global satellite survey of 151 individual waste disposal sites across six continents used high-resolution observations to detect localised methane emissions2,12. The results of this survey, published in November 2025, showed that the satellite-based estimates generally had no correlation with the reported or modelled emission estimates at the facility scale2,12. This lack of correlation exposes major uncertainties in the current understanding of methane emissions from solid waste, suggesting that the true scale of the problem is likely underestimated by traditional 'bottom-up' inventory methods2,12. The study also provided actionable insights, observing that managed landfills showed lower emissions per area compared to unmanaged dumping sites2,12. Detected emission sources often aligned with the open, non-covered parts of the facility where new waste is added2,12. This finding underscores the potential for high-resolution satellite data to not only monitor but also to guide more effective mitigation strategies in the waste sector globally2,12. Examples of waste-related super-emitters have been identified, including a methane plume detected by NASA’s EMIT mission south of Tehran, Iran, originating from a major waste-processing complex10. In the overall breakdown of super-emitter plumes detected by TROPOMI in 2021, urban areas and landfills accounted for the largest share at 35 per cent, followed by gas infrastructure at 24 per cent, oil infrastructure at 21 per cent, and coal mines at 20 per cent9,12.

The Accountability Deficit in Global Pledges

The Global Methane Pledge, while a significant political commitment, is currently struggling to translate ambition into enforceable action14,15. The pledge is a voluntary framework, and its success is threatened by a lack of robust oversight and inadequate funding for implementation13,14. The Environmental Investigation Agency (EIA) has pointed out that the pledge’s success relies on three pillars: monitoring, reporting, and verification; mitigation with concrete targets; and financial and technical assistance14. The failure of governments and companies to respond to satellite alerts demonstrates a critical breakdown in the first pillar, rendering the monitoring efforts largely academic5,14. Ahead of the COP30 climate talks, Brazil urged nations to fulfil existing promises rather than making new ones, citing the methane pledge as a key example of a commitment that remains off-track15. In response to the policy vacuum, non-state actors and philanthropists have begun to step in15. Michael Bloomberg, for instance, announced a $100 million investment to enhance global satellite monitoring of methane leaks, specifically to support policy enforcement in countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia, Mexico, Australia, and US states like California and New Mexico15. At the COP29 conference, an accountability framework was launched by the IMEO, the International Energy Agency, and the Environmental Defense Fund to assess the progress of the oil and gas industry towards targets set out in the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter16. This move signals a growing recognition that voluntary commitments must be backed by transparent, verifiable, and enforced standards16. The lack of acknowledgement for nearly 90 per cent of satellite-detected leaks, however, suggests that the political will to enforce these standards is lagging far behind the technological capability to measure the problem6.

Conclusion

The convergence of advanced satellite technology and the existential threat of climate change has created a unique, time-sensitive opportunity to address one of the most potent drivers of near-term global warming11,17. The orbital watchmen have delivered on their promise, providing irrefutable, granular evidence of methane super-emitters across the planet, from the oil fields of Turkmenistan to the waste sites of Casablanca10,12. Yet, the data reveals a profound and alarming disconnect: the world’s governments and energy companies are, in the vast majority of cases, choosing to ignore the alarm4,6. This systemic inaction on known, fixable leaks is not only a failure of corporate and governmental responsibility but a direct sabotage of the Global Methane Pledge and the broader effort to keep global warming below critical thresholds14,15. The ‘easy wins’ of methane mitigation are being squandered, forcing the planet to absorb the warming impact of millions of tonnes of gas that could have been captured5. Until the political and regulatory frameworks evolve to mandate and enforce immediate action on every satellite-detected plume, the invisible plumes will continue to rise, and the window for rapidly slowing global warming will continue to close14,15.

References

  1. Most major methane leak alerts ignored despite climate threat | United Nations

    Supports the core finding that most major methane leak alerts are ignored and provides context on methane's contribution to global warming.

  2. Global satellite survey reveals uncertainty in landfill methane emissions

    Supports the section on landfill emissions, specifically the finding that satellite estimates show no correlation with modelled estimates, revealing major uncertainties in the waste sector.

  3. Most major methane leak alerts ignored despite climate threat | United Nations

    Supports the core finding that companies and governments are acting on only around 12 per cent of alerts.

  4. Methane emissions: How governments and companies are ignoring the UN - Table.Briefings

    Provides the specific data point that almost 99 per cent of UN reports were ignored, the 1,200 leaks/15 actions data, and the Carbon Tracker analysis on incomplete corporate targets (joint ventures, estimation vs. measurement).

  5. UN says methane monitoring technology has progressed rapidly; efforts to plug leaks not so much - CBC

    Provides the 12 per cent response rate from 3,500 alerts, the limited progress from the previous 1 per cent rate, the IMEO's integration of 17+ satellites, the Inger Andersen quote on 'easy wins,' and details on GHGSat.

  6. Oil and Gas Firms, Governments Silent on Methane Leaks, UN Says - Asia Financial

    Confirms the 90% not acknowledged figure, the 12% response rate from 3,500 alerts, and the context of the COP30 climate talks.

  7. Countries and companies ignore most of the UN reports on methane emissions

    Confirms the 1,200 leaks/15 responses data and the context of the Global Methane Pledge commitment at COP28.

  8. Satellite supergroup spots methane super-emitters with “staggering” accuracy - IO

    Details the tiered approach using Copernicus satellites (Sentinel-5P, -3, -2) and the role of TROPOMI and GHGSat in identifying super-emitters.

  9. Automated detection and monitoring of methane super-emitters using satellite data - ACP

    Provides the breakdown of super-emitter sources detected in 2021 (landfills/urban, gas, oil, coal) and the general context of super-emitters being a disproportionately large fraction of emissions.

  10. Methane 'Super-Emitters' Mapped by NASA's New Earth Space Mission

    Details the NASA EMIT mission's capability, the detection of over 50 super-emitters, and specific examples in Turkmenistan, Tehran (waste), and the Permian Basin.

  11. Out-of-This-World Methane Detection: Using Satellites to Track Super Emitters | Article

    Provides the methane potency (80x CO2 over 20 years), the number of active satellites (25+), the EPA's super-emitter definition (100 kg/hr), and the role of GHGSat and Carbon Mapper.

  12. (PDF) Automated detection and monitoring of methane super-emitters using satellite data

    Confirms the breakdown of super-emitter sources (landfills/urban, gas, oil, coal) and the use of TROPOMI to 'tip-and-cue' high-resolution instruments.

  13. Global Methane Pledge | Climate & Clean Air Coalition

    Provides details on the Global Methane Pledge (GMP), including its voluntary nature, the 30% reduction goal by 2030, and the number of country participants (155+).

  14. Gaps in Global Methane Pledge Threaten its Success, New Analysis Reveals

    Supports the analysis of the GMP's shortcomings, citing the EIA report on lack of robust oversight, inadequate funding, and the three pillars of success.

  15. Leaders Gather in Amazon as Climate Unity Falters Ahead of COP30 - Modern Diplomacy

    Provides the context that the GMP is off-track, the call from Brazil to fulfil existing promises, and the announcement of Michael Bloomberg's $100 million investment for enhanced monitoring and enforcement.

  16. Highlights from the COP 29 Global Methane Pledge Ministerial - State Department

    Mentions the launch of the accountability framework at COP29 by IMEO, IEA, and EDF to assess the oil and gas industry's progress.

  17. Global Methane Pledge – Clean Air Task Force

    Reinforces methane's potency (80x CO2) and the focus on the oil and gas sector as the quickest, most impactful mitigation strategy.