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The Forty-Day Freeze and the Looming Air Travel Catastrophe

Monday, 10 November 2025 01:01

Summary

The United States federal government shutdown, which began on 1 October 2025, has become the longest in the nation's history, crossing the forty-day mark with no immediate resolution4,8,9. The political deadlock centres on the expiration of enhanced subsidies for health plans under the Affordable Care Act, which Senate Democrats are demanding be addressed before funding the government4,8. The crisis has moved from a political abstraction to a tangible threat to public safety and the economy, most acutely in the aviation sector2,7. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a stark warning that air travel could 'slow to a trickle' as the busy Thanksgiving holiday approaches, a direct consequence of air traffic controllers and other essential personnel working without pay1,2,6. The Federal Aviation Administration has already mandated flight reductions at forty major airports to mitigate safety risks from staffing shortages7,14. As the shutdown's effects deepen, a bipartisan group of senators has been negotiating a tentative deal that would fund the government through January 2026 and guarantee a later vote on the contentious healthcare subsidies, offering a precarious path out of the impasse12,13.

The Longest Impasse in American History

The federal government of the United States entered a partial shutdown at midnight EDT on 1 October 2025, marking the beginning of the 2026 fiscal year without Congress having passed the necessary appropriations legislation8. This failure to fund the government has resulted in the longest shutdown in modern US history, surpassing the previous record and continuing for forty days as of 9 November 20254,8,9. The core of the political deadlock lies in a dispute over healthcare funding, specifically the extension of enhanced subsidies for health plans offered under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace4,8. These subsidies, which were previously extended by the Inflation Reduction Act, are set to expire, and their lapse is projected to cause premiums for those enrolled in ACA exchanges to more than double on average next year4,9. Senate Democrats have consistently opposed the Republican appropriations bill, rejecting the House-passed continuing resolution fourteen times because it does not include the extension of the ACA subsidies8,9. The Republican-led House of Representatives has remained in recess for the majority of the shutdown, while the Senate has held repeated votes on the funding measure8,9. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican, has maintained that the government should be reopened first, with the healthcare issue addressed separately5,9. This political trench warfare has left approximately 900,000 federal employees furloughed, with another two million working without pay, creating a profound human and logistical crisis across the country8,9.

The Airspace Crisis and the Thanksgiving Warning

The most visible and immediately disruptive consequence of the prolonged funding lapse has been the escalating crisis in the nation's air travel system2,7. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) are among the agencies whose essential employees, including air traffic controllers and security screeners, have been forced to work without pay for nearly a month2,14. This financial strain has led to a significant increase in air traffic controllers calling in sick or accelerating their retirements, with reports indicating that up to fifteen or twenty controllers a day are retiring2,14. The National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) has stated that many controllers are working mandatory overtime six days a week without compensation, with some taking second jobs to manage their finances14. The FAA, citing safety concerns due to severe staffing shortages, was compelled to order flight cuts at forty of the nation's busiest airports2,7,14. These reductions began at 4% of daily flights and were scheduled to increase to 10% by 14 November, impacting all commercial airlines2,6,14. The cuts are in effect during peak hours, from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time2. The impact was immediate, with US airlines cancelling 1,460 flights on Saturday, 8 November, the second day of the FAA's order, and over 1,700 flights cancelled on Sunday, 9 November2,14. Staffing issues were reported to have contributed to 71% of total National Airspace System delay minutes on 8 November, the highest of the shutdown, disrupting over four million passengers between 1 October and 7 November10. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy issued a dire warning that the situation would only worsen, predicting that air travel could be 'reduced to a trickle' as the country approaches the busy Thanksgiving holiday travel period1,2,6. Duffy suggested that a 'substantial' number of Americans would be unable to celebrate the holiday with their families if the shutdown persisted1. The Secretary also indicated that additional flight cuts, potentially up to 20%, might be necessary if controllers missed a second straight pay period2,14. The economic impact of the 10% flight reduction directive alone is estimated by Airlines for America (A4A) to be between $285 million and $580 million daily, not including the costs associated with passenger time or reduced bookings10.

A Nation on Hold

Beyond the highly publicised aviation crisis, the shutdown has caused widespread disruption to crucial government services and social programmes4,8,9. The furlough of nearly a million federal employees and the unpaid work of two million others have created a ripple effect across the economy and public life8. While certain agencies, such as the Department of Defense and the Transportation Security Administration, continue to operate, others have seen their functions partially or fully suspended8. The National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have been affected, hindering critical public health work8. The shutdown has also threatened food assistance for millions of citizens, with the Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) programme being among those whose operations have been suspended4,8. The emerging Senate deal includes provisions to ensure food stamps are funded through the 2026 fiscal year, highlighting the severity of the threat to vulnerable populations13. The political rhetoric surrounding the impasse has been highly charged, with President Donald Trump pressuring Republican senators to end the shutdown and scrap the filibuster rule to bypass Democratic opposition7,9. Vice President JD Vance publicly supported the call to eliminate the filibuster, though Senate Majority Leader Thune rejected the idea, stating that the Senate is the only place where both sides are forced to negotiate7,9. The President also used the crisis to attack the ACA, calling it 'THE WORST HEALTHCARE FOR THE HIGHEST PRICE'9. The political fallout was compounded by the fact that the shutdown became the longest in US history just after key elections, which saw a Democratic sweep, adding pressure on the Republican-controlled Congress to find a resolution7.

The Precarious Path to Resolution

As the shutdown entered its seventh week, a bipartisan effort in the Senate began to coalesce around a potential resolution12,13,17. Senate Majority Leader Thune, a Republican, and a group of moderate Democrats, including Senators Angus King, Jeanne Shaheen, and Maggie Hassan, were instrumental in sketching out the contours of a deal5,13. The tentative agreement, which emerged on 9 November, would fund the government through 30 January 2026, providing a short-term continuing resolution to allow for further negotiations13. Crucially, the deal is tied to a larger package of three full-year appropriations bills, often referred to as a 'minibus,' which would fully fund the Department of Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, and the Legislative Branch8,13,16. This package includes $203.5 million for enhanced security for members of Congress and $852 million for the US Capitol Police13. The central compromise on the healthcare issue is the agreement to guarantee a separate Senate vote on extending the expiring ACA subsidies at a later, predetermined date, likely in December12,13,16. This concession allows Democrats to claim a victory in securing a vote on their key demand, while Republicans avoid including the extension in the immediate funding bill, which President Trump had opposed13. However, the guaranteed vote does not assure the extension will become law, as House Speaker Mike Johnson has previously indicated he would not hold a vote on a plan to extend the tax credits12. Furthermore, Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats, warned that accepting a mere promise of a vote would be a 'horrific mistake' and a 'policy and political disaster' for Democrats, arguing it would signal a 'green light' for authoritarianism to President Trump9,16. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries echoed this scepticism, stating that the House Democratic caucus was unlikely to support a 'wing and a prayer' promise from those who have been 'devastating the health care of the American people for years'16. Despite the political resistance from the left, the Senate moved toward a procedural vote on the House-passed stopgap bill, with the understanding that it would be amended to include the bipartisan deal12,16. The amended package would still require passage in the House and the President's signature, a process that could take several days12. The deal also reportedly includes a reversal of President Trump's firings of federal employees and provisions to prevent such actions in the future13.

Conclusion

The forty-day federal government shutdown has served as a stark demonstration of the fragility of the US political system, where a dispute over healthcare subsidies has metastasised into a national crisis that threatens to paralyse air travel during one of the busiest periods of the year1,2,4,8. The warnings from the Transportation Secretary about air traffic slowing to a trickle are not hyperbole but a direct consequence of essential workers being forced to operate without pay, a situation the FAA has deemed unsafe without mandated flight reductions2,7,14. The emerging bipartisan Senate deal, which links a short-term funding measure with a package of full-year appropriations and a promise of a future healthcare vote, represents a politically expedient off-ramp rather than a fundamental resolution12,13,16. While it offers a temporary reprieve from the immediate threat of a complete air travel breakdown and the continued suffering of furloughed workers, the core political conflict over the ACA subsidies remains unresolved4,8,13. The success of the deal hinges on the willingness of both the House and the President to accept the compromise, a precarious proposition given the deep partisan divisions and the explicit opposition from key figures on both the progressive and conservative wings of Congress9,12,16. The crisis has exposed the profound vulnerability of critical national infrastructure to political brinkmanship, leaving the American public to face the prospect of a repeat performance when the new funding extension expires in January13.

References

  1. 'Going to get worse': US transport secretary's 'Thanksgiving' warning over air travel amid govt shutdown

    Supports the Transportation Secretary's warning about air travel slowing to a trickle by Thanksgiving and the blame placed on Democrats.

  2. Thanksgiving air traffic could 'slow to a trickle' if shutdown persists, transport secretary says

    Provides details on the FAA's ordered flight cuts (4% to 10% by Nov 14), the number of cancellations (over 1,700 on Sunday), and the reason (unpaid air traffic controllers stopping work/retiring).

  3. US government shutdown enters 40th day as senators work through the weekend to find breakthrough

    Confirms the shutdown reached its 40th day, mentions the impasse over healthcare funding (ACA subsidies), the threat to food assistance, and the impact on federal workers.

  4. Duffy: 'It's going to be rough' for travelers if shutdown lasts through Thanksgiving

    Supports the Transportation Secretary's warning about the impact on travelers and the political stance of Republicans to pass a stopgap first.

  5. Thanksgiving air traffic could 'slow to a trickle' if shutdown goes on, transport secretary says

    Reinforces the 'slow to a trickle' warning, the FAA's flight cuts, and the reason being unpaid air traffic controllers.

  6. Government shutdown prompts FAA to float flight cancellations as Senate talks continue

    Details the FAA's plan to slash airline capacity by 10% at 40 high-volume markets, the pressure from President Trump to end the shutdown, and the political context of the filibuster.

  7. 2025 United States federal government shutdown - Wikipedia

    Provides foundational facts: the start date (Oct 1, 2025), the 40-day duration, the cause (ACA subsidies), the number of furloughed/unpaid employees, the 14 failed votes, and the agencies affected (NIH, CDC, WIC).

  8. Government Shutdown Reaches its 40th Day as Senators Work Through a Crucial Weekend

    Confirms the 40-day mark, the ACA subsidy issue, the expected doubling of premiums, Senator Sanders' opposition to caving, and President Trump's rhetoric against the ACA.

  9. Latest Data Shows Huge Impact of the Government Shutdown on Airlines and Our Customers

    Provides specific data on the air travel impact: 71% of NAS delay minutes due to staffing, over 4M passengers disrupted, and the estimated daily economic impact of the 10% flight reduction ($285M-$580M).

  10. US Senate takes steps toward vote to end historic federal shutdown

    Confirms the Senate's move toward a vote, the plan to amend the House bill with a short-term funding measure and appropriations package, the guaranteed vote on ACA subsidies, and the scepticism from Senator Blumenthal and House Speaker Johnson's previous stance.

  11. Senate reaches deal to extend government funding in major sign shutdown is poised to end

    Provides specific details of the bipartisan deal: funding through 30 January, the three full-year appropriations bills ('minibus'), the guaranteed ACA vote, funding for food stamps, and the reversal of federal employee firings.

  12. Nearly 1500 flights canceled on second day of cuts tied to government shutdown

    Confirms the number of cancellations (1,460 on Saturday), the number of unpaid air traffic controllers and security screeners (13,000 and 50,000), and the mandatory overtime/second jobs.

  13. Government shutdown live updates as Thune plans Senate vote amid rare Sunday session

    Details the Senate's plan to vote on Sunday, the 'minibus' package, Senator Sanders' strong opposition to the deal, and House Minority Leader Jeffries' scepticism about the ACA vote promise.

  14. Eyes on Washington: Shutdown Briefing – Day 38 | Insights | Holland & Knight

    Provides context on the Democratic leadership's proposal, including the CR, one-year ACA extension, and three-bill appropriations package, and the ongoing bipartisan talks.