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The Forty-Day Freeze

Sunday, 09 November 2025 23:47

Summary

The US federal government shutdown, now the longest in the nation's history at 40 days, has triggered a cascading national crisis rooted in a partisan deadlock over healthcare funding. The impasse centres on the expiration of Affordable Care Act subsidies, which Democrats demand be extended before any funding bill is passed, a condition Republicans have repeatedly rejected. This political paralysis has forced the Federal Aviation Administration to mandate flight reductions at 40 major airports, causing widespread travel chaos just weeks before the Thanksgiving holiday. Simultaneously, nearly three million federal employees, including air traffic controllers and TSA agents, are either furloughed or working without pay, leading to a surge in demand at food banks and interrupting the salaries of thousands of local workers at US military bases overseas. As bipartisan negotiations stall over a Republican 'minibus' funding proposal, the economic and social toll continues to mount, with public opinion polls showing declining approval for all major political actors involved.

The Longest Impasse in American History

The United States federal government entered its 40th day of a partial shutdown on Sunday, November 9, 2025, officially making it the longest funding lapse in the nation’s history13,5,10. The crisis began on October 1, 2025, after Congress failed to pass appropriations legislation for the 2026 fiscal year13. The core of the political deadlock is a dispute over the extension of tax credits that subsidise health plans under the Affordable Care Act (ACA)8,13. Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, have insisted that any bill to reopen the government must include a one-year extension of these subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year8,7. Without intervention, the premiums for those enrolled in ACA exchanges are expected to more than double next year7. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his Republican colleagues have repeatedly rejected this demand, arguing that negotiations on healthcare reform should only take place after the government is fully funded8,4,12. The House of Representatives had passed a continuing resolution, but the Senate has rejected it 14 times, demonstrating the depth of the partisan divide13. President Donald Trump has further complicated the negotiations by publicly opposing the ACA subsidies, suggesting instead that Congress should send money directly to citizens to purchase their own insurance4,5,7. This proposal, which some observers believe would remove protections for pre-existing conditions, has been dismissed by Democrats as a non-starter4. The political environment has been further charged by the President’s call for Republicans to scrap the filibuster rule in the Senate to allow them to bypass Democrats entirely, a suggestion that Republican leadership has so far rejected5,9.

Aviation System Under Strain

The most visible and immediate consequence of the funding lapse has been the disruption to the nation’s air travel system, particularly as the busy Thanksgiving holiday travel period approaches1,2,5. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was forced to mandate significant flight reductions at 40 of the country’s busiest airports due to severe staffing shortages among air traffic controllers5,7,15,17. Air traffic controllers are classified as essential personnel and are required to work without pay during the shutdown, leading to immense financial and psychological strain7,17. This strain has resulted in an increasing number of controllers calling in sick, forcing the FAA to take unprecedented measures to maintain safety7,17. The mandated cuts began at 4% of daily flights on Friday, November 7, and are scheduled to increase to 6% by November 11, and then to 10% by November 145,7. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy warned that if the political impasse continues, flight reductions could rise to 20%, potentially reducing air travel to a “trickle” and preventing a “substantial” number of people from celebrating the upcoming holidays with their families6,14. By the second weekend of November, thousands of flights had already been delayed or cancelled, with one flight tracking site reporting over 5,600 delays and more than 1,300 cancellations on a single Saturday1,7,14. Major airlines have been forced to comply with the directive, with some waiving change fees for passengers scrambling to adjust their plans14. The U.S. Travel Association, representing nearly 500 organisations, sent a letter to Congress urging an immediate resolution, warning that the chaos threatens billions of dollars in economic activity tied to Thanksgiving travel2,16.

The Human Cost of Political Paralysis

The shutdown has created a profound financial and personal crisis for the federal workforce and the millions of Americans who rely on government services10,13. Roughly 900,000 federal employees have been furloughed, while an estimated two million, including Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers and air traffic controllers, are working without pay13,2,16. For many civilian employees, the first fully missed paycheck occurred on October 2410. The financial pressure is particularly acute for federal contractors, who are often among the lowest-paid workers and are not guaranteed back pay once the government reopens8,6. The uncertainty and financial stress have led some federal workers to use their unplanned time off to seek employment in the private sector6. The crisis extends beyond the continental United States, affecting local workers at US military bases overseas1,7. At least 2,000 foreign nationals working at bases in Europe, including in Italy and Portugal, have had their salaries interrupted for nearly six weeks1,4,7,9. Union representatives for Italian workers at Aviano Air Base reported that employees are struggling to pay mortgages and afford fuel to travel to work1,7. While the German government has temporarily stepped in to pay the nearly 11,000 local employees at US bases in that country, expecting reimbursement, workers in other nations have not been so fortunate2,5. Domestically, the social safety net is fraying10. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food aid to 42 million Americans, has seen benefits delayed4,5. Food pantries near major federal employment hubs are reporting a massive surge in demand12,14. For instance, a pantry near the Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Ohio, a major employer, anticipated a doubling of the number of families it serves weekly14. The economic impact is estimated to be between $7 billion and $16 billion per week, with the Congressional Budget Office forecasting a loss of $14 billion by year-end from the reduction in hours worked by furloughed employees alone16.

The Political Calculus and Public Opinion

The political standoff has been marked by a rare weekend session in the Senate, where lawmakers attempted to find a path to resolution1,5. Senate Republicans are pursuing a strategy centred on a 'minibus' package of three long-term appropriations bills that would fund the Departments of Military Construction-Veterans Affairs, Agriculture-FDA, and the Legislative Branch2,3,9. This package would be attached to a longer continuing resolution, with a promise of a future vote on the ACA subsidies2,3. Separately, a small group of moderate Democrats, led by Senator Jeanne Shaheen, has been negotiating a compromise that would reopen the government in exchange for a later, non-guaranteed vote on the healthcare subsidies1,7,8. This proposal is seen as a potential 'off-ramp' by some Republican leaders, but the full details and necessary Democratic support remain uncertain8,1. Public opinion polling indicates that the shutdown is taking a toll on the approval ratings of all major political actors10. An Emerson College poll showed President Trump’s approval rating had fallen to 41% approval and 49% disapproval, marking a new low for his second term15. The net approval for both President Trump and congressional Republicans on their handling of the shutdown has declined6. When voters are asked to assign blame, 35% hold congressional Republicans most responsible, compared to 32% who blame congressional Democrats, with 28% blaming both equally, according to a YouGov survey from early November6. The Republican-controlled Congress has seen its approval rating drop sharply, with a Gallup poll showing an 11-point decline to 15% overall, driven largely by a 21-point drop in approval among Republicans themselves11. The political risk for the Republican party is underscored by a generic congressional ballot showing Democrats favoured over Republicans by 44% to 40%15.

Conclusion

The 40-day government shutdown has evolved from a routine legislative failure into a national emergency, with the political fight over healthcare subsidies now directly translating into cancelled flights, unpaid wages, and a surge in social distress13,5,7,14. The crisis has exposed the fragility of the federal system, demonstrating how a partisan deadlock in Washington can immediately and severely impact the lives of millions, from air travellers to low-paid federal contractors and local workers at military installations abroad1,6,17. As lawmakers continue their weekend negotiations over a complex 'minibus' funding package and a promise of a future healthcare vote, the pressure to resolve the impasse before the Thanksgiving travel rush becomes a full-blown catastrophe is immense2,6. The political fallout, evidenced by declining approval ratings for the President and the Republican-led Congress, suggests that the longer the shutdown persists, the higher the electoral price will be for the party currently in power15,11. The resolution, whenever it arrives, will not erase the economic damage or the profound loss of confidence in the government’s ability to perform its most basic function: keeping itself open16.

References

  1. Trump signals no shutdown compromise with Democrats as senators hold a rare weekend session

    Supports details on the political deadlock, the moderate Democrats' compromise proposal, the impact on SNAP benefits, and the general context of the weekend session.

  2. Government shutdown live updates as Thune plans Senate vote amid rare Sunday session

    Provides details on the Republican 'minibus' funding strategy, the specific bills included (Military Construction-VA, Agriculture-FDA, Legislative Branch), and the Senate's rare Sunday session.

  3. Government Shutdown Update: Thursday, November 6, 2025

    Confirms the components of the 'minibus' and the Republican strategy to attach it to a longer continuing resolution with a later expiration date.

  4. Senate Republicans embrace Trump's call – from his Florida golf course – to replace Obamacare | US federal government shutdown 2025

    Details President Trump's opposition to ACA subsidies, his proposal for direct-to-people funding, and the impact of the shutdown on SNAP benefits.

  5. Passengers start to feel bite of flight cuts amid US government shutdown - The Guardian

    Confirms the shutdown as the longest on record, the FAA's mandated flight reductions (4% to 10% by Nov 14), the number of cancelled flights, and the political pressure on lawmakers.

  6. Are people changing their minds about the shutdown? | YouGov

    Provides specific polling data on who Americans blame (35% Republicans, 32% Democrats, 28% both), the decline in net approval for Trump and congressional Republicans, and the impact on federal workers seeking private sector jobs.

  7. Weekend session gets off to slow start in Senate as lawmakers look for a way out of shutdown - CTV News

    Details the political impasse over ACA subsidies, the expected doubling of premiums, the moderate Democrats' compromise proposal, and the impact on SNAP benefits.

  8. Democrats Consider GOP Deal to Reopen Government With Promise for Later Vote on Health-Care Tax Credits - Mississippi Free Press

    Explains the core Democratic demand for ACA subsidy extension, the Republican rejection, the moderate Democrats' compromise, and the vulnerability of federal contractors.

  9. Eyes on Washington: Shutdown Briefing – Day 38 | Insights | Holland & Knight

    Confirms the components of the 'minibus' and the political context of the filibuster and the need for bipartisan support.

  10. Who Is Missing Paychecks in the 2025 Shutdown—When and Where? - Bipartisan Policy Center

    Provides specific numbers on furloughed and unpaid workers, the date of the first fully missed paycheck (October 24), and the potential for military personnel to miss paychecks on November 14.

  11. Congress' Job Rating Sinks to 15%; Trump's Steady at 41% - Gallup News

    Offers polling data on the decline in Congress's approval rating (to 15%) and the sharp drop among Republicans (21 points).

  12. Food pantries see record demand, as government shutdown becomes longest on record

    Details the surge in demand at food pantries in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and the impact on SNAP benefits.

  13. 2025 United States federal government shutdown - Wikipedia

    Confirms the start date (October 1, 2025), the duration (40 days), the number of furloughed employees, and the core issue of the ACA subsidies.

  14. Near Ohio air force base, food pantries and businesses grapple with effects of shutdown

    Provides narrative detail on the surge in demand at the Fairborn Fish Food Pantry near Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and the warning about military paychecks.

  15. Trump's Approval Rating Plummets to New Low in Damning Survey - Yahoo News Canada

    Cites the Emerson College poll showing President Trump's approval rating at a new low (41% approval, 49% disapproval) and the generic congressional ballot favouring Democrats.

  16. Government shutdown costing the economy billions of dollars each week - CBS News

    Provides estimates of the economic cost per week ($7 billion to $16 billion) and the number of furloughed and unpaid workers.

  17. U.S. government shutdown to force flight reductions at 40 'high-traffic' airports | CBC News

    Confirms the FAA's mandated 10% air traffic reduction at 40 airports and the reason being the strain on unpaid air traffic controllers.