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A War on the Waves

Saturday, 08 November 2025 00:42

Summary

In the waters of the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific, a dramatic and lethal shift in United States foreign policy is unfolding. Since September 2025, a sustained military campaign authorised by the Trump administration has targeted and destroyed at least 18 vessels, resulting in the deaths of more than 70 individuals. Officially, this is a new front in the war on drugs, targeting 'narco-terrorists' before they can deliver their cargo to American shores. The administration has deployed a formidable naval presence, including an aircraft carrier strike group, and claims to be in a 'non-international armed conflict' with designated cartels. However, this campaign has ignited a firestorm of controversy. Regional allies, most notably Colombia, have condemned the strikes as 'murder' and a violation of sovereignty. International bodies, including the United Nations, have labelled the actions 'extrajudicial killings' that contravene established maritime and human rights law. In Washington, the policy has triggered a constitutional clash, with a divided Senate narrowly blocking attempts to reassert congressional war powers. Investigations into the identities of the deceased suggest a more complex reality than the official narrative, revealing fishermen and low-level couriers drawn by economic desperation rather than ideology. Beneath the surface of the counter-narcotics mission, many observers see the clear outlines of a different objective: regime change in Venezuela.

The Fisherman and the Fire

For the family of Alejandro Carranza, he was a fisherman who left the shores of Colombia to find his catch in the open waters of the Caribbean.9 His daily activity was fishing, a struggle to provide for his loved ones.8 In mid-September 2025, however, his vessel was struck by the United States military.4 According to the Colombian government, Carranza's boat was adrift, its engine having failed, with a distress signal active when the attack occurred.8,9 He was killed in the strike, one of dozens of casualties in a new and aggressive American military campaign.3,4 The government of Colombian President Gustavo Petro labelled the killing a 'murder' and a violation of his country's sovereignty, demanding an explanation from Washington.3,7,8 Carranza's family insists he had no connection to the drug trade.9 The incident starkly illustrates the human cost and the diplomatic fury stoked by a radical shift in U.S. counter-narcotics policy.7 For decades, the approach to maritime drug smuggling was one of law enforcement: interdiction, boarding, seizure, and arrest, typically led by the U.S. Coast Guard.35 This new doctrine, however, bypasses due process in favour of lethal force.35

An Escalating Campaign

The campaign began in earnest in early September 2025.36 On 2 September, President Donald Trump announced that on his orders, U.S. military forces had conducted a 'kinetic strike' against a vessel in the southern Caribbean.5,17 The attack killed all eleven people aboard.36 President Trump claimed the vessel contained 'positively identified Tren de Aragua Narcoterrorists' and was transporting illegal narcotics toward the United States.5,17 This strike marked a sharp and public departure from previous policy.35 In the weeks that followed, the administration announced a steady drumbeat of similar attacks.36 The theatre of operations, initially focused on the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, expanded in October to include the Eastern Pacific Ocean.36 By early November 2025, the U.S. had conducted at least 17 strikes on 18 vessels, including a semi-submersible.36 The death toll climbed to at least 70 people.34 Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth became the primary announcer of the strikes, often posting videos of boats exploding in flames on social media with warnings to 'narco-terrorists'.29,34 The administration has consistently claimed the targets are affiliated with Designated Terrorist Organizations (DTOs) and are destroyed in international waters.34 However, it has yet to make public any concrete evidence that the targets were smuggling narcotics or posed a threat to the United States.20 This lack of transparency has fuelled criticism from international observers and U.S. lawmakers alike.29

The Doctrine of Armed Conflict

To legally justify this shift from law enforcement to lethal military action, the Trump administration has constructed a novel and controversial legal framework.18 In February 2025, the administration designated several Latin American groups, including the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, as foreign terrorist organizations.36 Following the first strike in September, President Trump formally notified Congress that the United States was in a 'non-international armed conflict' with these drug cartels, labelling their members 'unlawful combatants'.17,30 This re-framing is critical, as in an armed conflict, a country can lawfully kill enemy fighters even when they pose no immediate threat.36 The legal basis for this assertion is reportedly detailed in a secret, 40-page memo produced by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel (OLC).47,51 The existence of this memo has been confirmed, but its contents remain classified, shielding the administration's reasoning from full public and congressional scrutiny.40,50 Senators who have reviewed the document have criticised its reasoning, with Senator Tim Kaine describing it as having 'logical fallacies'.47 Legal experts and human rights organisations have sharply contested the administration's position.6 The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, called for the U.S. to halt the attacks, stating they could amount to extrajudicial killings.45 UN experts have argued that international law does not permit the unilateral use of force abroad to fight drug trafficking, which remains a law enforcement issue.48 Under international human rights law, lethal force is permissible only as a last resort against an imminent threat to life.45 Critics argue that shipping drugs, while illegal and harmful, does not constitute an 'armed attack' that would trigger the right to self-defence under the UN Charter.41 The administration's argument that a speedboat hundreds of miles from U.S. shores poses an imminent threat is seen by many legal scholars as untenable.35

A Divided Capitol

The campaign has provoked a constitutional confrontation in Washington over the power to wage war.29 Alarmed by the escalating strikes and the potential for a wider conflict with Venezuela, a bipartisan coalition of senators led by Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Rand Paul has sought to curb the president's authority.19,23 They have forced multiple votes on a War Powers Resolution, a 1973 law designed to reassert Congress's role in authorising military action.24 A resolution aimed at stopping strikes against boats in international waters failed by a narrow 48-51 vote in October 2025.51 A subsequent, more narrowly tailored resolution that would have required congressional approval for strikes specifically against Venezuela was also defeated on 6 November 2025, by a 49-51 margin.19 Only two Republican senators, Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski, crossed party lines to support the measure.19 Supporters of the resolutions argue that the executive branch does not have the authority to kill people at will on the high seas and that the military buildup signals an intent to start an unauthorised war.30,43 They contend that if the administration believes war is necessary, it must seek an Authorization for the Use of Military Force from Congress.15 Conversely, many Republicans have defended the president's actions.24 Senator Jim Risch, the Republican chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, stated that President Trump has taken 'decisive action to protect thousands of Americans from lethal narcotics'.49 Senator Lindsey Graham argued that Congress should not interfere with the commander-in-chief's ability to target 'narco-terrorist organizations' that pose a threat to the country.24

The View from Bogotá and Beyond

The lethal strikes have severely strained relations with key regional partners, most notably Colombia, a cornerstone of U.S. security policy in South America for decades.18 The two nations have a long history of counter-narcotics cooperation, codified in initiatives like Plan Colombia.18,26 This partnership, however, has been upended by the new U.S. policy.18 Colombian President Gustavo Petro has been one of the most outspoken critics, calling the strikes 'murder' and urging the U.S. to respect international law.31 Following the killing of Colombian fisherman Alejandro Carranza, Petro accused the U.S. of violating Colombian sovereignty.7 In response to the criticism, President Trump labelled Petro an 'illegal drug leader' and threatened to cut U.S. assistance to the country.8 The condemnation extends beyond Colombia.33 Leaders from Caribbean nations, such as Barbados's Prime Minister Mia Mottley, have voiced alarm, calling for the region to remain a 'zone of peace' and rejecting the notion of extrajudicial killings.33 Even as regional governments express outrage, the U.S. has continued to build up its military forces.29 The deployment includes at least six Navy ships, F-35 stealth jets repositioned to Puerto Rico, and, most significantly, the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group.20 This constitutes the largest U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean in decades, a force far exceeding what would be necessary to target small speedboats.29,43

The Faces of the Dead

While Washington frames the conflict in terms of 'narco-terrorists', investigations on the ground in Venezuela paint a more nuanced picture of the individuals being killed.16 An investigation by the Associated Press identified several of the men slain in the strikes, tracing their origins to impoverished villages on Venezuela's Paria Peninsula.16,23 According to relatives and local residents, the men were indeed involved in running drugs, but they were not cartel leaders or ideologically driven terrorists.16,27 They were labourers, a down-on-his-luck bus driver, and fishermen who were crewing the boats for the first or second time, lured by payments of at least $500 per trip in a country gripped by economic collapse.16 One of the men killed in the first strike on 2 September was a well-known local crime boss who smuggled both drugs and people, but relatives disputed the U.S. claim that he was a member of the Tren de Aragua gang.16 The Venezuelan government has also denied that those killed in the initial strike were gang members.20 This ground-level reality contrasts sharply with the administration's rhetoric, suggesting that the targets of this high-tech military campaign are often the most desperate and expendable players in the narcotics trade.16 The families of the deceased are often left without answers, receiving no official information about the fate of their loved ones from either the U.S. or Venezuelan governments.16

The Venezuelan Endgame

The sheer scale of the military deployment, combined with the administration's rhetoric, has led many analysts and lawmakers to conclude that the counter-narcotics campaign is a prelude to, or a cover for, a larger strategic objective: regime change in Venezuela.5,11,15 The Trump administration has long pursued the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whom the U.S. indicted on drug charges during Trump's first term and for whose arrest it has offered a $50 million reward.36 Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been a driving force behind a hard-line policy toward Venezuela.5 The administration has reportedly developed a range of options for military action inside Venezuela and has considered striking land-based targets such as ports and airstrips allegedly used for trafficking.5 Further escalating matters, President Trump confirmed in October 2025 that he had authorised the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct 'covert action' in Venezuela.5,37 This could encompass a range of activities, from propaganda to paramilitary raids aimed at destabilising the Maduro government.37 While the administration has claimed its focus is on drugs, the intense focus on Venezuela is telling, as security experts note that only a small portion of cocaine and almost none of the fentanyl entering the U.S. transits through the country.37 The campaign's true goal, many believe, is to apply sufficient military and political pressure to force Maduro and his allies from power.5,11

Conclusion

The campaign of lethal strikes in the waters off South America represents a profound departure in American foreign and military policy. It has replaced a decades-long, law-enforcement-led consensus on counter-narcotics with unilateral military action, justified by a contested legal theory of armed conflict against designated terrorist groups. This new doctrine has created significant friction with regional allies, drawn condemnation from international legal bodies, and sparked a constitutional debate within the United States over presidential war powers. While the stated goal is to protect American lives by stopping the flow of drugs, the evidence suggests the campaign's impact on the vast narcotics trade is minimal, instead killing low-level operatives and civilians caught in the crossfire. The massive military buildup and the authorisation of covert action point toward a broader, more ambitious and potentially destabilising objective focused on Venezuela. The long-term consequences of this policy remain uncertain. What is clear is that in the name of fighting 'narco-terrorists', Washington has embarked on a course that challenges established international norms, alienates partners, and risks embroiling the United States in a wider, more unpredictable conflict.

References

  1. Current time information in Pijino Del Carmen, CO

    Provides location context for events related to Colombia.

  2. Current time information in Bogota, CO

    Provides location context for events related to Colombia's capital.

  3. US strike in Caribbean kills Colombian fisherman, stoking sovereignty row

    Reports on the killing of Colombian fisherman Alejandro Carranza and President Petro's accusation of murder and violation of sovereignty.

  4. Colombian president accuses US of 'murdering' fisherman in boat strike

    Details President Petro's accusation that the U.S. 'murdered' a Colombian fisherman, Alejandro Carranza, in a strike on September 15.

  5. Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela | International Crisis Group

    Provides analysis on the U.S. military buildup and strikes as part of a potential regime change strategy against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, and notes the authorisation of CIA covert action.

  6. The Use of Deadly Force Against Drug Smuggling Vessels: A Legal Analysis

    Offers a detailed legal analysis of the strikes under international maritime law, concluding they are unlawful except in narrow cases of self-defence.

  7. Colombia accuses US of sovereignty violation after fisherman killed in anti-drug strike

    Covers Colombia's accusation of sovereignty violation and murder following the killing of a fisherman, and notes the lack of evidence provided by the U.S.

  8. President of Colombia says US strike killed fisherman; Trump says he will cut aid

    Reports President Petro's claim that fisherman Alejandro Carranza was killed while his boat was adrift with a distress signal, and President Trump's retaliatory threat to cut aid.

  9. Colombian killed in U.S. strike was on a fishing trip, wife claims: 'Why did they just take his life like that?'

    Provides personal details about Alejandro Carranza from his family, who state he was a fisherman with no links to drug trafficking.

  10. What a reporter found when she investigated US military strikes on Venezuelan drug boats

    Summarizes the findings of an Associated Press investigation into the identities of those killed, noting they were running drugs but were not 'narco-terrorists'.

  11. The Strategic Costs of US Strikes Against Venezuela - Stimson Center

    Analyzes the strategic options and repercussions of the U.S. campaign, including the possibility of regime change in Venezuela.

  12. Colombia and the United States--The Partnership: But What Is the Endgame?

    Provides historical context on the U.S.-Colombia counter-narcotics partnership, including the use of 'decertification' as a political tool.

  13. U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela | Global Conflict Tracker

    Details the context of U.S.-Venezuela tensions, including the U.S. designation of cartels as FTOs and the initiation of the military campaign.

  14. Trump Wants Venezuela's Maduro Out. Will He Pull the Trigger? | TIME

    Discusses the significant U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean and the possibility of strikes inside Venezuela as part of a regime change strategy.

  15. The expert conversation: What's Trump's endgame in Venezuela?

    Provides expert analysis on the unclear U.S. strategy, weighing the goals of counter-narcotics against the objective of removing Nicolás Maduro from power.

  16. Trump has accused boat strike targets of being narco-terrorists. The truth is more nuanced, AP investigation finds

    Provides the detailed findings of the Associated Press investigation, identifying victims as low-level drug runners motivated by economic hardship, not as cartel leaders or terrorists.

  17. Assessing the Facts and Legal Questions About the U.S. Strikes on Alleged Drug Boats

    Summarizes the key facts of the campaign, including the death toll, the administration's 'armed conflict' justification, and the lack of public evidence.

  18. Colombia: Background and U.S. Relations - Congress.gov

    Provides a comprehensive overview of the U.S.-Colombia relationship, including the history of security and counter-narcotics cooperation and recent tensions under the Petro government.

  19. Senate GOP Kills Bill That Would Block Trump Boat Bombings and War on Venezuela

    Reports on the Senate's rejection of the War Powers Resolution on November 6, 2025, detailing the 51-49 vote and identifying the two Republicans who voted in favour.

  20. Venezuela says 11 killed in US boat strike were not gang members amid reports vessel was returning to shore

    Reports the Venezuelan government's denial that the victims of the first strike were gang members and notes the lack of evidence provided by the U.S.

  21. Amphibious Warship Returning To Caribbean, Report Claims U.S. Planning Strikes On Mexican Cartels

    Mentions the potential use of Joint Special Operations Command and CIA officers for drone strikes, highlighting the advanced military and intelligence assets involved.

  22. U.S.-Colombia Relations

    Provides a historical timeline of U.S.-Colombia relations, focusing on the evolution of counternarcotics cooperation.

  23. What a Reporter Found When She Investigated US Military Strikes on Venezuelan Drug Boats

    Details the on-the-ground reporting by the Associated Press that identified victims and found they were involved in drug running but were not cartel leaders.

  24. U.S. Senate Republicans veto legislation to limit Trump's ability to attack Venezuela

    Reports on the failed Senate vote on the War Powers Resolution and quotes Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's justification for supporting the president's actions.

  25. Hegseth and Rubio Share Classified Details on Boat Strikes with Congressional Leaders

    Reports on a classified briefing for senators and notes that Democrats felt they needed more information and legal justification for the strikes.

  26. An Overview of the Effectiveness of U.S. Counternarcotics Efforts in Colombia, 2000-Present, and Recommendations for the Future

    Provides a detailed history and analysis of Plan Colombia and the evolution of U.S.-Colombian counter-narcotics strategy, focusing on eradication and interdiction.

  27. Called narco-terrorists by Trump administration, men 'executed' in Venezuela are mourned by loved ones

    Corroborates the Associated Press investigation, providing details on the identities and backgrounds of the men killed in the U.S. strikes.

  28. Hegseth announces another deadly US strike on alleged drug boat

    Reports on a specific strike announced by the Defense Secretary, contributing to the overall death toll and timeline of the campaign.

  29. US strikes alleged drug-carrying boat in the Pacific, killing 4 | AP News

    Details a specific strike in the Pacific, the rising death toll, and the administration's justification of being in an 'armed conflict' with cartels.

  30. Rand Paul: Senate Will Get Another Chance to Limit Trump's Venezuela Strikes

    Quotes Senator Rand Paul on his opposition to the strikes, which he calls 'extrajudicial killings', and his efforts to use the War Powers Resolution to stop them.

  31. Operation Martillo - SouthCom

    Provides official information on Operation Martillo, clarifying that the traditional U.S. military role was detection and monitoring, while interdictions were led by law enforcement.

  32. Multinational Operation Targets Transnational Organized Crime - DVIDS

    Describes the multinational, law-enforcement-focused nature of Operation Martillo, providing a clear contrast to the current unilateral military campaign.

  33. Caribbean Leaders Call for Unified Latin American Resistance to US Attacks | Truthout

    Reports on the regional backlash to the U.S. strikes, quoting leaders like Barbados's Mia Mottley who oppose extrajudicial killings and call for the region to be a 'zone of peace'.

  34. Trump Killing Spree Continues as Murder Count Rises to At Least 70 People

    Reports the death toll reaching 70 and quotes a human rights expert calling for the prosecution of U.S. officials for the illegal campaign.

  35. Drug Boats: Where Questions of Lethality and Legality Meet - U.S. Naval Institute

    Provides a detailed analysis of the sharp departure from the traditional law enforcement model of interdiction to the new policy of lethal strikes, and questions its legality.

  36. 2025 United States military strikes on alleged drug traffickers - Wikipedia

    Provides a comprehensive timeline and summary of the strikes, including the start date, death toll, locations, and the administration's official justification.

  37. Intelligence Committees and the CIA Covert Action in Venezuela - Just Security

    Confirms President Trump's authorization of CIA covert action in Venezuela and analyzes its questionable rationale and potential objectives, including regime change.

  38. Rights Groups Demand Legal Memo on Caribbean Boat Strikes | American Civil Liberties Union

    Reports on the FOIA request filed by rights groups for the secret OLC memo that justifies the strikes, which they label as 'murder'.

  39. Operation Martillo Still Hammering Away at Illicit Trafficking - Department of War

    Provides statistics on the results of Operation Martillo, showing its focus on seizures, detentions, and arrests, contrasting with the current lethal strikes.

  40. The Secretive Office Approving Trump's Boat Strikes - | Knight First Amendment Institute

    Discusses the role of the secretive Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) in providing a legal justification for the strikes, drawing parallels to its controversial post-9/11 memos.

  41. Attacks on 'drug boats' are pushing the US away from the consensus on the rules of international law | Chatham House

    Provides expert legal analysis arguing that the U.S. justifications for the strikes, including self-defence, are not convincing under international law.

  42. U.S. Narcotics Control Initiatives in Colombia - state.gov

    Outlines the historical U.S. policy goals in Colombia, focusing on strengthening institutions, eradication, and interdiction, providing a baseline for comparison with the new policy.

  43. A coalition of senators will renew their push to curb Trump's war powers | Connecticut Public

    Reports on the Senate debate over the War Powers Resolution, quoting both opponents who question the need for an aircraft carrier and supporters like Lindsey Graham.

  44. Trump Authorizes CIA And Military Escalation Against Maduro - Grand Pinnacle Tribune

    Confirms President Trump's authorization of a CIA mandate in Venezuela and his comments about stopping drugs by land as well as by sea.

  45. U.N. human rights chief says U.S. 'must halt' strikes on alleged drug boats to prevent 'extrajudicial killing'

    Reports the UN Human Rights chief's statement that the strikes are 'extrajudicial killings' and that drug trafficking is a law enforcement matter, not an armed conflict.

  46. Rep. Crow leads bipartisan call for transparency in Trump's war on drug cartels

    Confirms President Trump's authorization of CIA covert operations inside Venezuela and his consideration of land-based strikes.

  47. Hegseth and Rubio share classified details on boat strikes with congressional leaders

    Reports that senators have been able to review the secret 40-page OLC memo and quotes Senator Kaine's criticism of its legal rationale.

  48. US war on “narco-terrorists” violates the right to life, warn UN experts after deadly vessel strike | OHCHR

    Provides the official statement from UN experts condemning the strikes as extrajudicial executions and violations of international law and sovereignty.

  49. Senate votes down measure to limit Trump's ability to strike Venezuela

    Reports on the failed Senate vote and quotes Republican Senator Jim Risch's support for the President's 'decisive action'.

  50. The Venezuela Boat Strikes and the Justice Department's Golden Shield

    Explains the significance of the secret OLC memo, describing it as a 'golden shield' that provides legal immunity for officials carrying out the strikes, even if the legal reasoning is flawed.

  51. Senate blocks Democrats' bid to check Trump power over Venezuela strikes

    Reports on the failed Senate War Powers Resolution vote and notes that congressional leaders were briefed that the administration is relying on the OLC memo for legal justification.