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The Deluge and the Dread

Saturday, 08 November 2025 00:21

Summary

A powerful late-season typhoon, named Kalmaegi, has carved a path of destruction across Southeast Asia, leaving a devastating human toll in its wake. The storm first unleashed unprecedented flooding and landslides in the central Philippines, overwhelming communities still recovering from a recent earthquake. As the Philippines grappled with a death toll rising into the hundreds and hundreds of thousands displaced, the typhoon crossed the South China Sea to strike Vietnam. It made landfall in central Vietnamese provinces already saturated by record-breaking rainfall, compounding an existing crisis. The combined impact has stretched emergency services to their limits in both nations. Now, as recovery efforts begin amidst the wreckage, a new and potentially more powerful storm is gathering strength in the Pacific, threatening to strike the Philippines in a matter of days. This looming threat of a second major disaster highlights the profound vulnerability of the region to increasingly intense weather events.

A Late Season Fury

In the final days of October 2025, an area of convection began to coalesce over the Pacific Ocean14. By 31 October, it had organised into a tropical depression14. Meteorological agencies watched as the system steadily gained strength in an environment highly favourable for intensification14. The Japan Meteorological Agency designated it a tropical storm on 1 November, assigning it the name Kalmaegi14. As it tracked westwards, it entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 2 November, where the local weather bureau, PAGASA, gave it the name Tino14. The storm continued to strengthen, being upgraded to a severe tropical storm and then, on 3 November, to a typhoon14. Forecasters noted the potential for rapid intensification, with some scenarios not ruling out the possibility of it reaching super typhoon category21. As it approached the Philippines, it was the twentieth tropical cyclone to enter the country's jurisdiction in 20256. PAGASA began issuing Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals on 2 November, initially for provinces in the Visayas and Mindanao14. By 3 November, the warnings were escalated, with the highest alert, Signal No. 4, eventually being raised over several islands, indicating that winds between 118 and 184 kilometres per hour were expected within 12 hours14,26.

The First Landfall

In the first hour of 4 November, Typhoon Kalmaegi made its initial landfall near the town of Silago in Southern Leyte, with maximum sustained winds of about 130 kilometres per hour6,14. This was just the beginning of its destructive journey across the central Philippines11. The typhoon made four subsequent landfalls that day: in Borbon, Cebu; Sagay, Negros Occidental; San Lorenzo, Guimaras; and finally, Iloilo City11,14. Each landfall, a brutal interaction with the terrain, chipped away at the storm's structure but also unleashed torrential rain and destructive winds across a wide swathe of the Visayas region11,14. The province of Cebu, a populous and economically significant island, found itself directly in the typhoon's path3. The island was already in a precarious state, still recovering from a magnitude 6.9 earthquake that had struck on 30 September, killing at least 79 people and displacing thousands whose homes had been damaged or destroyed9. Many of these displaced residents were in flimsy, temporary shelters when the warnings for Kalmaegi were raised9. The rains that fell were described as 1.5 times the amount that would typically fall in Cebu for the entire month of November, an event meteorologists termed a once-in-20-years occurrence10. The consequences were catastrophic. Rivers and waterways swelled, bursting their banks and sending floodwaters described as unprecedented through towns and cities4,7. The sheer volume and speed of the water engulfed residential communities, forcing desperate residents to climb onto their roofs to await rescue3,9. The deluge was powerful enough to sweep away cars, piling them on top of one another, and even dislodge and carry away massive shipping containers4,7.

A Nation in Calamity

The human cost of Kalmaegi's passage through the Philippines quickly became apparent and continued to climb in the days that followed. By 7 November, the official death toll had risen to at least 188, with another 127 to 135 people still reported as missing5,19. The majority of the fatalities were due to drowning in the flash floods that tore through Cebu3,10. The province alone recorded at least 139 deaths6. In the town of Liloan, near Cebu City, residents witnessed cars stacked by the floodwaters and roofs torn from buildings as they began the grim task of digging out of the mud4. The typhoon's impact was felt by nearly two million people across the country3. More than 560,000 people were displaced from their homes, with nearly 450,000 seeking refuge in emergency evacuation centres3,5. The disaster was compounded by a separate tragedy when a Philippine Air Force helicopter on a humanitarian mission to typhoon-battered provinces crashed in Agusan del Sur on 4 November, killing the six military personnel on board3,9. In response to the escalating crisis, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a state of national calamity on 6 November3,4. This declaration allows for the faster disbursement of emergency funds and helps to control the prices of basic necessities3. The government stated that it had sufficient funds to manage the immediate response and was not yet making a formal call for foreign financial assistance22. However, offers of support from the international community began to arrive. The United States pledged $1 million in immediate life-saving assistance20. Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom, among others, expressed their readiness to help with recovery efforts22,24. In a notable gesture of regional solidarity, Timor-Leste, the newest member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), pledged to send 120 engineers and firefighters to assist in cleanup and rehabilitation23. Numerous non-governmental organisations, including Oxfam, Americares, and the Philippine Red Cross, mobilised their teams to deliver aid, facing immense challenges due to impassable roads and bridges13,17,27.

The Second Strike

After exiting the Philippines on 5 November, Kalmaegi tracked west-northwest across the South China Sea, regaining strength over the warm waters6,21. It reached its peak intensity on 6 November, with maximum sustained winds of 183 kilometres per hour and gusts of up to 205 kilometres per hour6. Its next target was Vietnam, a country whose central provinces were already reeling from days of flooding caused by record-breaking rainfall that had claimed 47 lives4,12. Vietnamese authorities, bracing for the 13th storm to affect the country in 2025, issued urgent warnings and organised large-scale evacuations4,6. More than 260,000 people were moved from vulnerable coastal communities in provinces such as Gia Lai and Quang Ngai6. Kalmaegi made landfall in central Vietnam on the afternoon of 6 November, lashing the region with fierce winds and torrential rain4,6. The storm was expected to dump more than 600 millimetres (24 inches) of additional rain in some areas, raising fears of further deadly landslides and flash floods4,30. The impact was immediate and severe. By 7 November, authorities reported at least five people had been killed in Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces, with several others injured or missing8,19,30. Widespread damage was reported across the central region. At least 52 houses collapsed completely, and nearly 2,600 others were damaged or lost their roofs, the vast majority of them in Gia Lai province8,30. The storm uprooted trees, downed power lines, and caused large-scale power outages that affected more than 1.6 million households19,33. As the storm weakened and moved inland towards Cambodia and Thailand, residents in coastal cities like Quy Nhon emerged to find streets littered with debris and corrugated metal roofing19,32,33.

Dread of the Next Deluge

Even as the Philippines and Vietnam began to assess the full scale of the devastation, a new threat was already gathering in the east4. Weather agencies began tracking another tropical cyclone, designated Fung-wong, which was forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and be given the local name Uwan11,13. The forecasts were deeply alarming. Meteorologists predicted that Fung-wong would undergo rapid intensification, potentially reaching the status of a super typhoon by 8 or 9 November, with winds possibly exceeding 212 kilometres per hour16,29,31. The storm's projected path aimed it towards Northern or Central Luzon, with a potential landfall on 9 or 10 November11,18. The sheer size of the approaching storm was a major concern, with forecasters suggesting its diameter could swell to 1,400 kilometres, wide enough to affect almost the entire country11,27. The prospect of a second major disaster striking a nation with its emergency response capacity already stretched to the limit created a palpable sense of dread13. President Marcos Jr. acknowledged the new threat during a briefing on the aftermath of Kalmaegi4. Humanitarian organisations like the Philippine Red Cross, already engaged in difficult relief operations in the Visayas, began preparing their teams in the north for another major impact27. The back-to-back storms serve as a stark illustration of the region's vulnerability. Scientists have pointed to exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and South China Sea as a key factor in Kalmaegi's power, a trend clearly linked to human-caused global warming34. The increasing frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events pose a formidable challenge to the resilience of communities caught in their path34.

Conclusion

Typhoon Kalmaegi has left an indelible scar on both the Philippines and Vietnam, a brutal reminder of the power of nature in a warming world. The storm, notable for its late-season intensity, did not just cause damage; it exploited existing vulnerabilities, striking a region in the Philippines still fragile from an earthquake and a part of Vietnam already saturated by floods9,12. The rising death toll, the vast numbers of displaced families, and the widespread destruction of homes and livelihoods represent a profound human tragedy5,19. The response has been massive, with national governments declaring states of calamity and mobilising resources, while the international community and aid organisations have stepped in to assist3,17,20. Yet, the recovery will be long and arduous. The most immediate challenge, however, is the storm that follows. The forecast of a potential super typhoon, Uwan, bearing down on the Philippines underscores a terrifying new reality for the region: the era of compound disasters, where there is no time to recover from one blow before the next one lands13,29. The cycle of destruction and recovery is accelerating, testing the limits of human endurance and the capacity of governments to protect their citizens.

References

  1. Current time information in Asia/Manila

    Used to establish the local time context for events described in the Philippines.

  2. Current time information in Mang Yang, VN

    Used to establish the local time context for events described in Vietnam.

  3. Philippines declares state of emergency after typhoon Kalmaegi death toll passes 100

    Provides key figures on deaths, missing persons, and displaced populations in the Philippines. Details the declaration of a state of emergency by President Marcos Jr. and describes the flooding in Cebu province. Also mentions the helicopter crash and the threat of the next cyclone.

  4. Typhoon Kalmaegi slams into Vietnam after killing more than 140 people in the Philippines

    Details Kalmaegi's landfall in Vietnam, the pre-existing flooding situation there, and the number of fatalities. It provides updated death tolls for the Philippines, describes the 'unprecedented' flooding in Cebu, and mentions the approaching storm, Fung-wong.

  5. Philippine death toll from devastating typhoon nears 200

    Provides the updated death toll in the Philippines as of November 7, reaching nearly 200. Confirms the number of missing and displaced residents and notes the typhoon's landfall in Vietnam.

  6. Typhoon Kalmaegi | Tino, Philippines, Vietnam, Path, Cambodia, Laos, & Thailand | Britannica

    Offers a comprehensive timeline of the typhoon's development, landfalls, and meteorological specifics like wind speed and pressure. It details the impact on both the Philippines (especially Cebu) and Vietnam, including casualty figures and evacuation numbers.

  7. Typhoon Kalmaegi: Death toll tops 100 as Philippines digs out after typhoon

    Describes the 'unprecedented' flooding in Cebu province, including details of cars and shipping containers being swept away. Provides early casualty figures for Cebu and Negros Island.

  8. Typhoon Kalmaegi causes 11 casualties, widespread damage in central region

    Reports on the specific impact in Vietnam, providing figures for deaths, injuries, and property damage (collapsed and damaged houses) from the Vietnam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority.

  9. Typhoon Kalmaegi: death toll rises to 66 as widespread flooding hits central Philippines

    Provides early details on the death toll in the Philippines. Crucially, it connects the disaster in Cebu to the province's recovery from the recent September 30 earthquake and confirms the military helicopter crash.

  10. Philippine president declares state of emergency after Typhoon Kalmaegi death toll tops 140

    Confirms the declaration of a state of emergency and provides casualty figures for Cebu. Includes a meteorological assessment that the rainfall was 1.5 times the monthly average for Cebu.

  11. Philippines: Tropical Cyclones Kalmaegi/Tino and Fung-Wong/Uwan (As of 07 November, 9 p.m. local time)

    Provides a detailed timeline of Kalmaegi's (Tino) landfalls across the Philippines. It also gives information on the developing cyclone Fung-Wong (Uwan) and its potential impact on northern Luzon.

  12. Flash Update: No. 02 – Tropical Cyclone Kalmaegi and 32W Philippines, Vietnam– 05 November 2025

    Details the forecast path of Kalmaegi towards Vietnam and notes the existing widespread flooding and casualties in central Vietnam before Kalmaegi's arrival. Also provides meteorological data on the storm's strength and the monitoring of the next cyclone (32W/Fung-wong).

  13. Oxfam Philippines responds to Typhoon Kalmaegi, as country braces for another potential super Typhoon

    Provides context from an aid organisation on the ground, describing the humanitarian emergency, the challenges to relief efforts, and the immense strain caused by the looming threat of a second, potentially more powerful typhoon.

  14. Typhoon Kalmaegi (2025) - Wikipedia

    Provides a detailed meteorological history of the storm's formation, intensification, and naming. It also lists the specific locations and times of the five landfalls in the Philippines and the timeline of PAGASA's wind signal warnings.

  15. Weather Alert – Storm Conditions in Central Vietnam Due to Typhoon Kalmaegi (November 5, 2025)

    Provides official warnings issued ahead of the storm's landfall in Vietnam, including predicted wind speeds, wave heights, and the specific provinces expected to be affected.

  16. Severe Weather Bulletin - PAGASA

    Provides the official forecast from the Philippine weather agency (PAGASA) for the incoming Typhoon Uwan (Fung-wong), including its projected path, rapid intensification to super typhoon category, and warnings of a life-threatening storm surge.

  17. Responding 2026 Philippines: Typhoon Kalmaegi (Tino) - Americares

    Details the response of an international aid organisation, confirming the number of displaced people and the deployment of an emergency team to distribute critical supplies. It highlights the compound nature of the disaster.

  18. Weather Alert: Preparing for Typhoon Uwan (Fung-wong) - U.S. Embassy in the Philippines

    Provides an official alert regarding the incoming Typhoon Uwan, confirming its forecast as a potential category five storm and detailing the specific areas in the Philippines expected to receive intense rainfall.

  19. Typhoon Kalmaegi kills 5 people in Vietnam as the Philippines prepares for new storm

    Reports on the casualties and damage in Vietnam, including the number of houses damaged and the extent of power outages. It also provides updated casualty and displacement figures for the Philippines and details on the approaching Typhoon Fung-wong.

  20. United States Provides Emergency Disaster Assistance for Victims of Typhoon Kalmaegi (Tino), Successive Storms, and the Cebu Earthquake

    Official statement from the U.S. government confirming the provision of $1 million in immediate aid to the Philippines for the response to Typhoon Kalmaegi.

  21. Flash Update: No. 01 – Tropical Cyclone Kalmaegi – Sunday, 2 November 2025 1800 HRS UTC +7

    Provides early forecast information on Kalmaegi's path and intensity, noting the likelihood of it reaching typhoon category and the possibility of rapid intensification before its first landfall.

  22. Palace: PH not yet calling for foreign help to aid victims of Tino

    Reports the official position of the Philippine government that it is not currently seeking international financial assistance, as it has sufficient domestic funds for the disaster response.

  23. Timor-Leste to send over 100 people to help Philippines clean up after 'Tino'

    Details the specific offer of assistance from Timor-Leste to send 120 engineers and firefighters to the Philippines, highlighting regional cooperation.

  24. US, Canada, Australia ready to support relief in 'Tino'-hit areas

    Confirms that the governments of the United States, Canada, and Australia have officially stated their readiness to provide assistance for the typhoon relief efforts in the Philippines.

  25. Typhoon Kalmaegi - Catholic Relief Services

    Provides information from a major aid agency on the ground, confirming the number of people affected and displaced, and detailing their coordination efforts with local partners in the Philippines.

  26. World Vision Philippines Responds to Typhoon Kalmaegi

    Details the response of another major NGO, confirming the storm's wind speeds and the raising of Signal No. 4. It also outlines their preparedness and response efforts in both the Philippines and Vietnam.

  27. Philippine Red Cross prepares for yet another powerful typhoon after Kalmaegi

    Provides insight from the Philippine Red Cross on the immense challenge of responding to Kalmaegi while simultaneously preparing for the even larger approaching storm, Fung-wong (Uwan).

  28. Uwan, still outside PAR, is now a typhoon, says Pagasa

    Reports the official upgrade of the incoming storm Uwan (Fung-wong) to typhoon category by PAGASA on the evening of November 7, providing its wind speed and movement.

  29. JTWC: Potential super typhoon Uwan may reach peak intensity off Bicol

    Provides forecast details from the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) on Typhoon Uwan, predicting its intensification into a potential super typhoon with specific wind speed estimates and a projected landfall area in Luzon.

  30. Typhoon Kalmaegi kills five people in Vietnam as the Philippines prepares for a new storm

    Corroborates the death toll and damage in Vietnam. It also confirms the number of evacuees in Vietnam and the forecast for heavy rainfall as the storm moves inland.

  31. PAGASA: 'Uwan' further intensifies, may reach super typhoon strength before Isabela-Aurora landfall

    Provides the official PAGASA bulletin from the morning of November 8, confirming that Typhoon Uwan is continuing to intensify and could reach super typhoon category within 24 hours before its projected landfall.

  32. Typhoon Kalmaegi brings rain and destruction to Vietnam as death toll nears 190 in Philippines

    Confirms the death tolls in both Vietnam (five) and the Philippines (188). It describes the damage in Vietnam, including power outages and destruction to a shrimp farm, and mentions President Marcos Jr.'s visit to evacuation centres in Cebu.

  33. Deadly Typhoon Kalmaegi ravages Vietnam after killing 188 in the Philippines

    Provides eyewitness accounts from Vietnam and details on the damage, including the number of houses collapsed or damaged and the number of clients who lost electricity. It reiterates the death toll in the Philippines and the pre-existing flood situation in Vietnam.

  34. As Typhoon Kalmaegi wreaks havoc in Southeast Asia, scientists say rising temperatures are to blame

    Provides the crucial climate change context for the article, quoting scientists who link the typhoon's intensity to exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures caused by human-caused global warming.

  35. Remnant Low Kalmaegi LIVE Tracker, Updates & Forecast

    Used to confirm the storm's path and eventual dissipation over Thailand after crossing Vietnam, providing a conclusion to its lifecycle.