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Melissa's Catastrophic Crawl

Jamaica Braces for a Historic Category 5 Storm

Monday, 27 October 2025 10:59

Abstract

Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a powerful Category 5 storm, posing an unprecedented threat to Jamaica and the wider Caribbean. Forecasters predict catastrophic flooding, life-threatening storm surges, and extensive infrastructure damage as the slow-moving system prepares to make landfall. The Jamaican government has issued mandatory evacuation orders for vulnerable coastal communities, including parts of the capital, Kingston, as the nation prepares for what could be the strongest hurricane in its recorded history.

The Unprecedented Scale of the Threat

Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified over the weekend, reaching Category 5 status, the highest classification on the Saffir-Simpson scale, as it tracked toward the northern Caribbean3,6,9,13. The storm is forecast to make landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday, 28 October, with peak sustained winds expected to reach 160 mph (257 km/h)3,11. According to records from the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) dating back to 1850, Jamaica has never recorded a direct landfall from a Category 4 or 5 hurricane10,16. This makes Melissa a potentially historic event, surpassing the intensity of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which was previously the most powerful storm to strike the island directly3,6,11. Gilbert, which made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane, brought gusts of 130 mph and caused immense destruction3,10,11. The lack of recent experience with a storm of Melissa's magnitude means no current resident of the island has lived through a Category 4 or 5 hurricane, raising concerns about public preparedness and the potential for underestimation of the danger16. The storm began as a cluster of thunderstorms off the coast of West Africa, developing into a tropical storm north of Venezuela on 21 October before undergoing a period of extreme rapid intensification3,16. The NHC predicted continued strengthening, with the storm's intensity increasing by 50 knots (57.5 mph) over a 24-hour period16.

A Deluge and a Slow March

The most alarming characteristic of Hurricane Melissa is its exceptionally slow forward speed, which has been averaging barely 5 mph in recent days3,6,14. This sluggish traversal is expected to dramatically exacerbate the impact, causing prolonged exposure to destructive winds and, critically, extremely high rainfall totals3,14. Forecasters have warned that the slow movement will allow the storm to dump excessive amounts of rain over the same areas for several days6,14. Rainfall totals of 200-400mm are likely across Jamaica by Tuesday evening, with some isolated areas potentially receiving up to 1,000mm (40 inches)3,6,9,13,14. To put this into context, the capital city of Kingston typically averages just over 800mm of rain over an entire year3. The NHC Deputy Director, Jamie Rhome, stated that this extreme rainfall potential, owing to the slow motion, would create a catastrophic event for Jamaica14. The mountainous terrain of Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic further increases the flood threat, as the steep slopes force air upward, guaranteeing the risk of devastating mudslides6. Beyond the rainfall, a life-threatening storm surge of up to 13 feet (4 metres) is expected along Jamaica's southern coastline, threatening to inundate low-lying coastal infrastructure9,12,14. The NHC has explicitly warned of the potential for life-threatening flash flooding, storm surges, and landslides across the region3,9.

The National Mobilisation and Evacuation

In response to the escalating threat, the Jamaican government has activated its national disaster response plan and mobilised emergency operations5,7,11. Prime Minister Andrew Holness issued mandatory evacuation orders on Sunday night for several vulnerable areas across the country6,9,13. These mandatory orders included the historic seaside community of Port Royal in the capital, Kingston, and six other high-risk, flood-prone areas, such as Old Harbour Bay in the southern parish of St Catherine6,9,13. Desmond McKenzie, the Minister of Local Government, warned that many communities in low-lying areas of Kingston would not survive the expected flooding9. Authorities have urged residents to seek shelter immediately, with nearly 900 emergency shelters opened around the country to accommodate those displaced6,9. The National Emergency Management Mechanism has been raised to Level 3, signifying a full response phase staffed by all first responders and supporting agencies11. Residents were advised to complete all preparations immediately and be ready to ride out the storm for several days, as conditions were expected to deteriorate rapidly13,14.

Economic and Regional Fallout

The approaching storm has brought Jamaica's vital tourism industry, a critical pillar of the national economy, to a halt5,7. Both of the country's major international air hubs, Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston and Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, were closed by Sunday, leading to the cancellation and delay of dozens of inbound and outbound flights6,7,9,15. Cruise lines have also suspended calls to Jamaican ports, and coastal resorts have activated emergency protocols, relocating guests to inland shelters5,7. The Foreign Office has warned UK holidaymakers in Jamaica of the likelihood of catastrophic flash floods and landslides15. Beyond the immediate tourism shutdown, the NHC has warned of extensive infrastructure damage and long-duration power and communication outages3,9,13. Utility companies on the island have cautioned that restoring power and other utilities after the storm would likely require rebuilding key infrastructure, not merely restoring service12. The storm's impact has already been felt across the wider Caribbean, particularly in Hispaniola9,14. The outer bands of Melissa have been blamed for at least four fatalities across Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with reports of torrential rain, flash flooding, and landslides7,9,14. In Haiti, at least three people died, and a bridge was destroyed due to breached riverbanks in Sainte-Suzanne6. Coastal areas across eastern Cuba are also under alert, with the Cuban government issuing a hurricane watch for several provinces13.

Conclusion

Hurricane Melissa represents a profound and potentially catastrophic challenge for Jamaica, threatening to deliver a level of destruction not witnessed in modern history10,16. The combination of its Category 5 intensity, the unprecedented rainfall totals from its slow movement, and the expected 13-foot storm surge creates a scenario of extreme peril for the island's infrastructure and population3,12,14. The immediate focus remains on the national mobilisation effort, ensuring the safety of residents and tourists through the extensive shelter system and mandatory evacuations5,9. However, the long-term consequences for the national economy, particularly the vital tourism sector, and the immense task of rebuilding critical infrastructure, will define the recovery period7,12. As the storm approaches, the region is bracing for a severe test of its disaster preparedness and resilience11.

References

  1. Weather tracker: Jamaica braces for its most powerful hurricane as Melissa nears category 5

    Supports facts on Category 5 status, expected wind speed (160mph), landfall timing (Tuesday), slow movement (5mph), rainfall totals (200-400mm, up to 1000mm), comparison to Kingston's annual rain, historical context (Gilbert 1988), and NHC warnings on infrastructure damage.

  2. Jamaica Shuts Airports as Hurricane Melissa Approaches, Affecting Tourism in The Caribbean: What You Need to Know

    Supports information on the closure of major international airports, the impact on the tourism sector, and the activation of emergency operations and contingency plans.

  3. Hurricane Melissa LIVE Tracker: Melissa now a Category 5 hurricane; at least 3 dead in Haiti, communities cut off by rising waters as Jamaica braces for landfall - The Indian Express

    Supports facts on Category 5 status, wind speed (160 mph), landfall timing (Monday night/Tuesday morning), mandatory evacuations (Port Royal, six other areas), number of shelters (nearly 900), airport closures, slow movement, rainfall totals (40 inches/1m), and regional impact (3 deaths in Haiti, flooding, destroyed bridge).

  4. Hurricane Melissa Jamaica Updates: Tourism Shutdowns and Economic Fallout Loom as Category 4 Storm Nears Landfall | IBTimes UK

    Supports information on the halt of the tourism industry, closure of Kingston and Montego Bay airports, cruise line suspensions, comparison to Hurricane Gilbert (1988), and regional impact (4 fatalities in Haiti/Dominican Republic).

  5. Jamaica orders evacuations amid warning of 'catastrophic' floods - Sky News

    Supports facts on Category 5 potential, NHC warnings of catastrophic floods/landslides/storm surges, 900 shelters, mandatory evacuations (Port Royal, six other areas), Minister McKenzie's warning about Kingston flooding, airport closures, rainfall totals (30-40 inches), and regional impact (4 deaths in Haiti/Dominican Republic).

  6. Jamaica has a rich hurricane history but has avoided most powerful storms - AccuWeather

    Supports historical context that no Category 4 or 5 hurricane has made direct landfall on Jamaica since NHC records began in 1850, and that Gilbert (1988) was a Category 3 landfall.

  7. Jamaica braces for Hurricane Melissa. Category 5 expected - EarthSky

    Supports facts on Category 5 status, expected wind speed (160 mph), comparison to Gilbert (1988), and the activation of the National Emergency Management Mechanism at Level 3.

  8. Hurricane Melissa Explodes in Strength, Poses Peril for Jamaica - Energy Connects

    Supports facts on the expected storm surge (up to 13 feet) and the warning from utility companies that restoring power would likely require rebuilding key infrastructure.

  9. Hurricane Melissa live updates: storm strengthens to category 5 and threatens catastrophic flooding in Jamaica - The Guardian

    Supports facts on Category 5 status, expected landfall on Tuesday, path to Cuba/Bahamas, mandatory evacuation orders (Port Royal, six other areas), rainfall totals (30-40 inches), and NHC warnings on infrastructure damage.

  10. Powerful Hurricane Melissa strengthens as it heads for Jamaica; may intensify into Category 5 storm - The New Indian Express

    Supports facts on Category 4/5 status, wind speed (145 mph), slow movement (5 mph), rainfall totals (40 inches/1m), NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome's quote on catastrophic event, storm surge (13 feet), and regional impact (4 deaths in Haiti/Dominican Republic).

  11. Hurricane Melissa: UK travellers hit by flight delays and cancellations ahead of storm landfall - Yahoo News Canada

    Supports facts on the Foreign Office warning to UK travellers, expected rainfall (700mm), storm surge (4 metres), and the closure of Kingston and Montego Bay airports.

  12. Hurricane Melissa Approaches Rare Category 5 — Four Things To Know - Forbes

    Supports facts on Category 5 certainty, rapid intensification (50 knots in 24 hours), historical context that no current resident has experienced a Category 4 or 5 storm, and the storm's slow movement/dwell time.