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The Budapest Brinkmanship: Trump's Ultimatum and the Price of Peace in Ukraine

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Monday, 20 October 2025 12:49

Abstract

A new and volatile phase of the war in Ukraine has begun, marked by a proposed summit in Hungary between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This diplomatic manoeuvre follows a contentious White House meeting where President Trump reportedly pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept Moscow's terms, including the ceding of strategically vital territory, under the threat of Ukraine's 'destruction.' The pressure from Washington has forced Kyiv to recalibrate its diplomatic strategy, even as European allies scramble to shore up military and financial support to prevent a collapse on the front lines, where Ukrainian forces face 'new levels of misery.' The focus now shifts to Budapest, a venue chosen for its Kremlin-sympathetic leadership, where the future of the three-and-a-half-year conflict hangs precariously on the balance of American political will and Russian territorial ambition.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

The Volatile White House Encounter

The diplomatic landscape shifted dramatically following the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington on Friday, October 17, 20254,9. Reports from European officials briefed on the encounter described the discussions as volatile, descending multiple times into a 'shouting match'4,7,9. The atmosphere was reportedly so tense that President Trump was heard 'cursing all the time'4,7. The core of the friction centred on the American President’s insistence that Kyiv accept Russia’s conditions for ending the war4,5. President Trump reportedly warned his Ukrainian counterpart that Russian President Vladimir Putin had threatened to 'destroy' Ukraine if it refused to compromise4,5,7,9,11. According to a European official with knowledge of the meeting, President Trump told President Zelenskyy directly, 'If [Putin] wants it, he will destroy you'7,9. The US President’s posture during the meeting was described as highly accommodating to Moscow’s position4,9. He reportedly echoed many of President Putin’s talking points almost verbatim, even when those points contradicted his own recent public statements regarding Russia’s military weaknesses4,9. At one point, President Trump allegedly pushed aside maps detailing the battlefield situation, expressing frustration with the ongoing conflict7,9. He reportedly complained about seeing the frontline map repeatedly, stating, 'This red line, I don't even know where this is. I've never been there'9. The meeting concluded with a significant disappointment for the Ukrainian delegation, which had hoped to secure a commitment for the supply of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles9,20,22,25. President Trump ultimately declined to provide the missiles, a decision he reportedly made following a phone call with President Putin just hours before the meeting with President Zelenskyy20,22,23. The US President later posted on social media that the two sides should 'stop the killing, and make a DEAL!' and that 'property lines' should be 'defined by War and Guts'10,15. President Zelenskyy, in remarks released on Monday, October 20, 2025, described the meeting as 'positive' despite the lack of Tomahawk missiles, noting that President Trump ultimately supported a freeze along the current front line20,22. This diplomatic framing by Kyiv sought to salvage a positive narrative from a deeply fractious encounter22.

The Price of Peace: Putin's Territorial Demand

The pressure applied by the US President was directly linked to a new set of territorial demands communicated by President Putin during their phone call on Thursday, October 16, 202512,15. The Russian President reportedly reiterated his maximalist demand that Ukraine must cede the entirety of the Donetsk Oblast as a prerequisite for ending the war8,10,12,15,16. This demand is not new; President Putin had previously sought the remaining areas of Donetsk Oblast in exchange for a ceasefire in August 20258,12. The new proposal, however, included a purported concession: President Putin suggested he would be willing to 'surrender parts' of the occupied Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in southern Ukraine8,10,12,15,16. The exact parameters of this offer remain unclear, but analysts suggested President Putin may have been referring to Ukrainian-controlled parts of the regions that Moscow had illegally annexed but does not fully occupy8,12. Some White House officials privately viewed this as a 'narrowing' of Russia’s earlier, sweeping demands, which had previously insisted on full control of all four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson)10,16. However, European diplomats were quick to dismiss the proposal as insignificant15. One European official reportedly told The Washington Post that the offer was akin to 'selling them their own leg in exchange for nothing'15. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warned that ceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast would disproportionately favour Russia12. The region is strategically vital for Ukraine’s defence and its defence industrial base (DIB)12. It contains the 'fortress belt,' which has served as Ukraine’s main defensive line since 2014 and has been developed into a significant logistical and defence industrial hub12,15. Russian forces have struggled to penetrate this defensive line, and seizing the region would allow Moscow to avoid a prolonged and bloody struggle12. Furthermore, it would provide Russian forces with new, advantageous positions from which to launch future operations into eastern Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, or the southern Kharkiv region8,12. President Zelenskyy has maintained that Kyiv’s position on territorial integrity remains unchanged, stating, 'We will give nothing to the aggressor'10,23. He explained to President Trump during their meeting that Ukraine’s position regarding a withdrawal from the Donbas region had not changed23.

The Hungarian Nexus and Kyiv's Reluctant Acceptance

The diplomatic focus has now shifted to Budapest, the proposed venue for the upcoming summit between President Trump and President Putin13,14. The meeting is expected to take place in the Hungarian capital in the coming weeks13,17. The Kremlin confirmed that Budapest was chosen because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán maintains 'warm ties' with President Trump and 'constructive ties' with President Putin13. This choice of venue immediately drew criticism from Kyiv17,19. President Zelenskyy expressed his disappointment, stating that he did not believe Budapest was the 'best venue' for the talks19. He pointedly criticised Prime Minister Orbán, who is widely seen as the most Kremlin-sympathetic member of the European Union13,17. President Zelenskyy argued that a prime minister who 'blocks Ukraine everywhere' could not provide a 'balanced contribution' to mediation13,19. He also noted that the Hungarian Prime Minister is among those 'constantly promoting the idea of Russia's supposed unconditional advantages in this war'19. Despite his reservations about the location and the mediator, President Zelenskyy confirmed on Monday, October 20, 2025, that he would be ready to join the summit if he were invited13,14,17,18. He specified that he would participate if the invitation was in a format where the three leaders met together, or through 'shuttle diplomacy,' where President Trump would meet separately with President Putin and then with him13,14,17. This willingness to engage, despite the immense pressure and the unfavourable setting, underscores the gravity of the diplomatic moment for Kyiv21. The Ukrainian President’s decision to accept the possibility of a 'freeze' along the current front line, a position publicly endorsed by President Trump after their meeting, represents a significant diplomatic pivot5,10,21,22. While President Zelenskyy maintained that Ukraine would not surrender 'additional' territory, the acceptance of a ceasefire on the current battle line moves the diplomatic goalposts away from Kyiv’s long-held position of restoring the 1991 borders10. The proposed summit in Budapest would mark President Putin’s first appearance in the capital of an EU member state since the start of the full-scale war in February 202216,19.

The Battlefield's Shadow and the Air Defence Crisis

The diplomatic wrangling in Washington and the prospect of a summit in Budapest are unfolding against a backdrop of intensifying military pressure on the front lines6. Reports indicate that Ukrainian soldiers are facing 'new levels of misery' as the conflict enters its fourth winter6. The Russian Defence Ministry claimed on Monday, October 20, 2025, that its troops had taken control of the village of Molodetske in the eastern Donetsk region, highlighting the continued, grinding Russian advance13. The air war has also escalated rapidly, placing immense strain on Ukraine’s defensive capabilities6. In response to this threat, President Zelenskyy has made an urgent and specific request for additional air defence systems6,20,21. He called for the delivery of an additional 25 US Patriot anti-missile batteries6,20,21,22,23. The Ukrainian President stated that the country is preparing a contract for the purchase of these 25 Patriot systems, which are considered the most effective defence against Russian ballistic missiles21,23. He noted that the systems would be supplied over a number of years and that Kyiv would seek assistance from European partners to jump the long production queues20,21,22. The need for these systems is critical, as the existing Patriot interceptors are insufficient to protect most of Ukraine’s major cities and its energy infrastructure, which has once again come under heavy Russian attack as the winter season approaches6. The failure to secure the long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles during the White House meeting was a major blow, as these weapons would have provided a significant boost to Kyiv’s ability to strike deep into Russian-held territory9,20,22,25. The US President’s decision to withhold the Tomahawks, reportedly influenced by his conversation with President Putin, signals a clear reluctance to risk further escalation ahead of the Budapest talks20,22,23. This reluctance has placed the onus of providing advanced weaponry and financial support squarely back onto Europe25.

Europe's Anxious Response and Security Guarantees

The tense diplomatic developments in Washington prompted a rapid and coordinated response from European capitals25. Following the disappointing White House meetings, European leaders renewed calls for a comprehensive peace plan and increased support for Kyiv25. Several European leaders, including NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, held a conference call with President Zelenskyy25. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose new government has backed former Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech with hundreds of billions of euros in military spending, stated that Europe must 'step up aid' for Ukraine24,27. The discussions focused not only on immediate military aid but also on long-term security and financial mechanisms25,26. A significant development is the commitment from twenty-six countries to deploy troops to secure postwar Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia28. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking alongside President Zelenskyy at the Elysee Palace in Paris, confirmed that these troops would be present on land, sea, or in the air as a form of reassurance28. The security guarantees primarily involve commitments to rebuild and bolster Ukraine’s armed forces28. German officials, however, indicated that their military commitment would only be decided once the conditions were clear, particularly the extent of US involvement in the security guarantees28. On the financial front, European Union countries are actively working on a plan to leverage frozen Russian sovereign assets to provide a reparations loan to Ukraine26. EU finance ministers discussed the issue on October 10, 2025, with the Danish economic affairs minister, Stephanie Lose, stating that 'not finding new financing for Ukraine is definitely not an option'26. The proposed mechanism, supported by Chancellor Merz, involves Euroclear lending an equivalent amount to the immobilised assets, estimated at approximately €180 billion, to a European entity26. This entity would then reimburse the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) loans to Ukraine, which totalled $50 billion and were raised by the EU, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Canada in December 202426. The remaining funds, estimated at about €135 billion, would be lent to Ukraine26. This ingenious scheme is designed to provide substantial financial support without directly confiscating the Russian assets, thereby avoiding potential disruption to the international monetary order26. The EU leaders are scheduled to discuss the reparations loan further at a summit on October 23-24, 202526.

Conclusion

The diplomatic path to ending the war in Ukraine has narrowed to a single, high-stakes negotiation, framed by an American ultimatum and a Russian demand for strategically vital territory. President Trump’s public pressure on President Zelenskyy to accept terms that include ceding the entire Donetsk Oblast, under the threat of Ukraine’s 'destruction'4,5,12, has fundamentally altered Kyiv’s diplomatic calculus, forcing a reluctant openness to a ceasefire along the current front line10,21. The proposed summit in Budapest, a venue chosen for its political convenience to Moscow and Washington, now represents the focal point of the conflict’s future13,19. For Kyiv, the willingness to attend, even under the shadow of Prime Minister Orbán’s pro-Kremlin stance17,19, is a pragmatic acknowledgement of the shifting geopolitical reality and the immediate need to secure air defence systems, such as the requested 25 Patriot batteries6,23. The European response, characterised by a renewed push for a peace plan and the commitment of twenty-six nations to provide postwar security troops25,28, underscores a growing continental determination to act independently of a volatile American foreign policy25. The financial mechanism to leverage €180 billion in frozen Russian assets for a reparations loan further solidifies Europe’s long-term commitment to Ukraine’s survival and reconstruction26. The coming weeks will determine whether the Budapest talks lead to a negotiated 'freeze' that merely postpones a future conflict, or if the price of peace, defined by the surrender of the Donetsk fortress belt12,15, proves too high for Kyiv to bear, risking the 'destruction' President Trump warned against4,7.

References

  1. Trump urged Zelenskyy to accept Putin's terms, saying Russia could 'destroy' Ukraine, FT reports | Ukrainska Pravda

    Supports the details of the volatile White House meeting, Trump's warning to Zelenskyy to accept terms or face 'destruction,' and the description of the meeting as a 'shouting match' with Trump 'cursing all the time.'

  2. Trump urged Zelenskyy to cut a deal with Putin or risk facing destruction | World News

    Confirms Trump's urging of Zelenskyy to accept Russia's terms and the warning that Putin threatened to 'destroy' Ukraine.

  3. Zelenskyy calls for more US Patriot air defences after Trump again sides with Putin | Ukraine

    Supports the fact that Zelenskyy called for an additional 25 US Patriot anti-missile batteries, the context of the rapidly escalating air war, and the need to protect cities and energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

  4. 'Putin said he'll destroy you': Trump asks Zelenskyy to accept war terms - Business Standard

    Provides the direct quote of Trump's warning ('If Putin wants it, he will destroy you') and confirms the tense nature of the meeting, including Trump echoing Putin's points and tossing aside maps.

  5. ISW: Putin demands Ukraine cede Donetsk in exchange for peace - ФАКТИ.БГ

    Details Putin's reported terms (ceding entire Donetsk Oblast for parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia), the date of the offer (October 16), and the ISW analysis on the strategic risk and the importance of the 'fortress belt' in Donetsk.

  6. 'Putin will destroy you': Maps tossed, tempers flared — how Trump-Zelenskyy's tense White House meeting unfolded - The Times of India

    Confirms the 'shouting match' and 'cursing' during the meeting, Trump's warning of 'destruction,' the detail about him tossing aside battlefield maps, and the failure to secure Tomahawk missiles.

  7. 'He's going to take something' — Trump says Putin has 'won' territory in Ukraine

    Supports the details of Putin's offer (full Donetsk for parts of Kherson/Zaporizhzhia), Trump's public comments on social media about 'property lines being defined by war and guts,' and Zelenskyy's counter-statement that Kyiv will not surrender 'additional' territory.

  8. Trump told Zelenskyy to cut a deal with Putin or face 'destruction': FT | Daily Sabah

    Reiterates Trump's urging of Zelenskyy to accept Russia's conditions and the warning of 'destruction.'

  9. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2025 - Institute for the Study of War

    Provides the date of Putin's offer to Trump (October 16), the specific demand (ceding all of Donetsk Oblast for parts of Kherson/Zaporizhzhia), and the ISW analysis on the strategic importance of Donetsk and the 'fortress belt.'

  10. Zelenskyy says he would join Trump-Putin summit in Hungary if invited – Europe live

    Confirms Zelenskyy's willingness to join the summit in Hungary if invited, the proposed 'shuttle diplomacy' format, the reason for Budapest (Orbán's ties), Zelenskyy's criticism of Orbán, and the Russian claim of taking Molodetske.

  11. Zelensky Ready to Join Putin, Trump in Budapest If Invited - The Moscow Times

    Confirms Zelenskyy's readiness to join the summit in Hungary and the proposed formats (trilateral or shuttle diplomacy).

  12. 'Make a deal': Putin demands Ukraine's Donetsk in war-end offer to Trump; Kyiv calls it 'selling them their own leg' - The Times of India

    Supports the detail of Putin's demand for full Donetsk, the offer of parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the European diplomat's quote ('selling them their own leg'), and Trump's social media post urging a deal.

  13. Putin reportedly demands full control over Ukraine's Donetsk region in phone call with Trump — Novaya Gazeta Europe

    Confirms Putin's demand for full Donetsk, the offer of parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the date of the call (Thursday), and the view of some White House officials that the demand was a 'narrowing.'

  14. Zelenskyy eyes invite to Trump-Putin talks in Budapest - Al Jazeera

    Confirms Zelenskyy's willingness to join the summit, the proposed 'shuttle diplomacy' format, the lack of a set date, and his wariness of Budapest due to Orbán's relations with Moscow.

  15. Zelenskyy open to Budapest invitation to join Trump-Putin summit - Daily Sabah

    Confirms Zelenskyy's openness to joining the summit in Budapest.

  16. Zelenskyy disappointed that Trump and Putin choose Budapest as meeting venue

    Supports Zelenskyy's disappointment with Budapest as the venue, his criticism of Prime Minister Orbán for blocking Ukraine and promoting Russia's advantages, and the fact that the summit would be Putin's first in an EU capital since the war began.

  17. Zelenskyy says his meeting with Trump was 'positive' though he didn't get the Tomahawk missiles

    Supports Zelenskyy's diplomatic framing of the meeting as 'positive,' the failure to secure Tomahawk missiles, the request for 25 Patriot systems, and the detail that Trump reneged on the missiles after his call with Putin.

  18. Zelensky says Ukraine preparing contract to buy 25 Patriot systems - Dubai Eye 103.8

    Confirms the preparation of a contract for 25 Patriot systems, the need to jump production queues, Zelenskyy's willingness to join the Budapest summit, and his acceptance of a freeze along the current front lines.

  19. Zelensky says meeting with Trump was 'positive' despite no Tomahawk missiles

    Reiterates Zelenskyy's 'positive' assessment of the meeting, the failure to secure Tomahawk missiles, the request for 25 Patriot systems, and the detail that Trump supported a freeze along the current front line.

  20. Ready to join Putin and Trump at Budapest summit if invited: Zelenskyy - TRT World

    Confirms Zelenskyy's readiness to join the summit, the contract for 25 Patriot systems, and his explanation to Trump that Kyiv's position on Donbas has not changed.

  21. Putin will not dare to escalate the situation under several conditions, says General Wolski

    Supports the general European call for continued support for Ukraine and the statement by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz that Europe must step up aid.

  22. European leaders push for Ukraine peace plan after disappointing Washington meetings

    Details the European reaction to the disappointing Washington meetings, the call for a peace plan, the conference call between Zelenskyy and European leaders (Rutte, von der Leyen, Starmer, Meloni), and the failure to secure Tomahawk missiles.

  23. An EU reparations loan is the right way to help Ukraine - Bruegel

    Provides extensive detail on the EU's plan for a reparations loan using frozen Russian assets, including the €180 billion Euroclear mechanism, the $50 billion ERA loans from December 2024, and the date of the EU finance ministers' discussion (October 10, 2025).

  24. Forget conscription: Germany must make a career in service more attractive - Monocle

    Supports the context of German military spending under Chancellor Merz's new government, referencing the 'Zeitenwende' speech and the hundreds of billions of euros in spending.

  25. European leaders plan to send troops to secure postwar Ukraine in the event of peace deal with Russia | The Nightly

    Confirms the commitment of twenty-six countries to deploy troops to secure postwar Ukraine, the nature of the security guarantees (rebuild and bolster armed forces), and the conditional nature of Germany's involvement based on US participation.