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The White House Pivot: Trump’s Peace Push and the Tomahawk Dilemma

The Mirage of Peace in Gaza's Second Act

Saturday, 18 October 2025 18:33

Abstract

A sudden diplomatic flurry in Washington and Moscow has signalled a potential shift in the trajectory of the war in Ukraine. Following a lengthy conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, US President Donald Trump hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on 17 October 20251,2,3. The meeting, which lasted over two hours4,5, concluded with Mr Trump publicly urging both Kyiv and Moscow to immediately 'declare victory' and agree to a ceasefire along the current battle lines1,6,7. This proposal, coupled with Mr Trump’s clear reluctance to supply Ukraine with the long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles Kyiv desperately sought, has reframed the conflict as a diplomatic challenge for Washington rather than a military one8,9.

Historical Context

Recent Findings

A Call, a Summit, and a New Peace Formula

The high-stakes meeting between President Trump and President Zelenskyy at the White House on Friday, 17 October 20251,2,3, was preceded by a significant diplomatic event: a phone call between Mr Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin10,11. The conversation between the American and Russian leaders took place on Thursday, 16 October 202510,12, and lasted for nearly two and a half hours13,14. Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov described the exchange as ‘very informative, yet at the same time extremely frank and confidential’13,15. Mr Ushakov stated that President Putin provided a ‘detailed assessment of the current situation’ in Ukraine and emphasised Russia’s interest in achieving a ‘peaceful political and diplomatic solution’15. Mr Trump, for his part, repeatedly stressed the imperative of establishing peace in Ukraine at the earliest opportunity15. He also mentioned his recent success in brokering a ceasefire and hostage deal in the Gaza Strip15,16, and his track record of settling eight other regional conflicts15. Following the call, Mr Trump announced that he and President Putin had agreed to meet soon in Budapest, Hungary, to discuss an end to the war1,10,17. The US President suggested the summit could take place ‘within two weeks or so’13. High-level delegations, led by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio13,18, were scheduled to meet the following week to prepare for the presidential summit10,13. The choice of Budapest was notable, as Mr Trump expressed his affinity for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, stating, ‘We like Viktor Orbán. Putin likes him, and I like him too’19. The day after the call with Mr Putin, President Trump hosted President Zelenskyy for a meeting that stretched well beyond its scheduled time5,20. After the talks, Mr Trump took to his Truth Social platform to outline his vision for an immediate end to the conflict1,6. He stated that ‘Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts’6,7. Mr Trump urged both nations to ‘stop where they are’6,7, and ‘Let both claim Victory, let History decide!’1,6,7. This proposal effectively calls for a ceasefire along the current front line, which would leave Russia in control of approximately 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory, including the eastern Donbas region19,21.

The Long-Range Missile Request

The central point of friction during the White House meeting was Kyiv’s long-standing request for the United States to supply Tomahawk cruise missiles1,22. Ukrainian officials view the Tomahawk as a ‘game-changing’ weapon, arguing that its provision would compel President Putin to take peace negotiations seriously2,23. The Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) is a long-range, guided cruise missile24,25. Modern conventional variants of the missile boast an operational range of 995 miles, or 1,600 kilometres24,26,27. Some variants can reach up to 1,550 miles (2,500 kilometres)24,28. This range is significantly greater than the 190-mile reach of the US-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)24,28, or the 155-mile range of the Storm Shadow cruise missile supplied by the UK and France25. The Tomahawk is designed for precision deep-strike missions24,25. It flies at a subsonic speed of approximately 550 miles per hour24 and maintains a low altitude, around 100 feet (30 metres) off the ground, making it difficult for Russian air defence systems to detect and intercept25,29. The missile is also capable of in-flight reprogramming and can loiter over a target before striking30. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that hundreds of Russian military targets would be brought within range of Ukrainian forces if the Tomahawk were supplied24. These targets include military bases, logistics hubs, airfields, and command centres deep inside Russian territory24,25,31. The ability to strike targets such as the Olenya air base in Russia’s Murmansk Oblast, a main launchpad for Russian mass missile attacks, is a key objective for Kyiv31. The missile’s range would also put major Russian cities, including Moscow and St Petersburg, within striking distance31,32. To secure the missiles, President Zelenskyy presented a ‘proposition’ to Mr Trump, offering to provide the United States with advanced Ukrainian-made drones in exchange for the Tomahawk cruise missiles1,3,19. Mr Trump initially expressed openness to the idea of a trade1, acknowledging that Ukraine produces ‘a very good drone’1. However, the US President ultimately signalled a strong reluctance to approve the transfer8,9.

The Reluctance to Escalate

President Trump’s hesitation to supply the Tomahawk missiles was rooted in two primary concerns: US national security and the risk of escalation9,33. He stated that he had an ‘obligation also to make sure that we’re completely stocked up as a country’9, adding, ‘We want Tomahawks, also. We don’t want to be giving away things that we need to protect our country’1,34. The US Navy’s inventory of the missile was estimated at roughly 4,000 in 202335, but this figure predated significant military action against Houthi rebels in Yemen, where at least 135 Tomahawks were launched35,36. Furthermore, the Pentagon’s budget documents showed a low rate of new missile procurement in recent years35,36. The second, and more immediate, concern was the potential for the transfer to derail the nascent peace process1,33. During the phone call on 16 October10, President Putin had explicitly warned Mr Trump that supplying the Tomahawks would ‘not change the situation on the battlefield’ and would harm the ‘prospects for peaceful resolution’13. The Kremlin’s top aide, Yuri Ushakov, had also stated that the Russian leader urged his US counterpart not to supply the missiles, warning that such a move would damage US-Russian relations5,37. Following the White House meeting, President Zelenskyy told reporters that he and Mr Trump had decided not to publicly discuss the long-range weapons1,38. He attributed this decision to the fact that ‘the United States does not want escalation’1,38. The Ukrainian President, however, remained ‘realistic’ about his chances of securing the weapons37, and suggested that the mere threat of Tomahawk delivery had already served a purpose by pushing Mr Putin toward talks39. A significant technical hurdle also complicates the transfer40. Tomahawk missiles are typically launched from naval platforms, such as ships and submarines, which Ukraine does not possess24,36,40. While the US Army has developed a truck-based mobile launch platform, known as the Typhon24,28,41, the launchers are in short supply24. The US Army is known to have only two of these launchers24, and some defence officials have expressed scepticism about the platform’s readiness for deployment36.

The Diplomatic Crossroads

The White House meeting and the subsequent call for a ‘declare victory’ ceasefire marked a clear shift in the US approach to the conflict1,6,10. Mr Trump’s position prioritised an immediate cessation of hostilities over the complete restoration of Ukraine’s internationally recognised borders7,19. By urging both sides to ‘stop at the battle line’7, the US President effectively endorsed a peace settlement that would allow Russia to retain the territory it currently occupies19. This stance contrasts with Mr Trump’s earlier comments in September, when he had expressed greater openness to the idea that Ukraine could win the war and regain all lost territory42. The new diplomatic push, coming immediately after the successful brokering of a Middle East ceasefire15,16, positioned Mr Trump as a global mediator19. The Ukrainian President, while failing to secure the Tomahawk missiles37, acknowledged the ‘momentum’ created by Mr Trump’s diplomatic efforts9,43. Mr Zelenskyy stated that he was ‘confident that with your help, we can stop this war’43, and expressed a willingness to speak in ‘any kind of format — bilateral, trilateral’44. The focus now shifts to the preparatory meetings led by Secretary of State Rubio13,18 and the impending summit in Budapest10,17. The question remains whether the prospect of a Tomahawk transfer, now held in reserve, will be sufficient leverage to bring about a lasting peace that satisfies both Moscow’s territorial demands and Kyiv’s sovereignty claims39.

Conclusion

The White House meeting on 17 October 20251,2,3 concluded a pivotal 48 hours of diplomacy that has fundamentally altered the terms of the Ukraine conflict10,11. President Trump’s public call for both Russia and Ukraine to ‘declare victory’ and halt the fighting along the current front lines6,7 signals a clear preference for a swift, negotiated end to the war, even if it means Kyiv must concede territory19. The decision to withhold the long-range Tomahawk missiles8,9, a weapon capable of striking deep into Russian territory24,31, underscores this shift from military support to diplomatic pressure33. The diplomatic focus now moves to Budapest10,17, where the US and Russian presidents are set to meet13. The outcome of that summit will determine whether Mr Trump’s peace formula can succeed where others have failed, or if the denial of a key weapon will simply solidify the existing battle lines and prolong the conflict19,37.

References

  1. After Zelenskyy meeting, Trump says Ukraine, Russia should declare victory

    Supports the date of the meeting (17 Oct 2025), the location (White House), Trump's 'declare victory' statement, the Tomahawk discussion, Zelenskyy's drone proposition, and the decision not to discuss missiles publicly.

  2. Zelensky fails to secure Tomahawk missiles at talks with Trump

    Confirms the date of the meeting (17 Oct 2025) and the failure to secure Tomahawk missiles, which Ukraine views as a way to compel Putin to negotiate.

  3. Reluctant to sell Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine: Trump to Zelenskyy | World News

    Confirms the date of the meeting (Friday, 17 Oct 2025), Trump's reluctance, and Zelenskyy's drone-for-Tomahawk proposition.

  4. Trump downplays hopes he will supply Ukraine with US missiles after meeting with Zelenskyy

    Supports the duration of the meeting (more than two hours) and Trump's cool reception to supplying Tomahawk missiles.

  5. Trump-Zelenskyy lunch: balancing missiles, mediation, and mutual understanding - EUalive

    Confirms the meeting lasted well beyond its scheduled hour (over two hours) and the date (17 October).

  6. Trump calls for ending war in Ukraine and declaring victory

    Provides the direct quotes from Trump's Truth Social post: 'Enough blood has been shed, with property lines being defined by War and Guts,' and 'Let both claim Victory, let History decide!'

  7. After Zelenskyy meeting, Trump calls on Ukraine and Russia to 'stop where they are' and end the war | Iowa Public Radio

    Supports Trump's call for Kyiv and Moscow to 'stop where they are' and his statement to reporters: 'You stop at the battle line wherever it is — otherwise it’s too complicated.'

  8. Trump urges Russia, Ukraine to 'stop where they are' to end conflict - Xinhua

    Confirms Trump's post-meeting call for a deal and his action of playing down prospects of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv.

  9. Trump says he's reluctant to sell Ukraine Tomahawk missiles in talks with Zelenskyy - CBC

    Supports Trump's reluctance to sell Tomahawks, his quote about national security: 'I have an obligation also to make sure that we’re completely stocked up as a country,' and his hope that the war would be over without them.

  10. Trump to discuss Tomahawk missiles with Zelenskyy, hopes Ukraine 'won't need them'

    Confirms the Trump-Putin phone call took place on Thursday (16 Oct 2025) and the plan for a meeting in Hungary.

  11. Trump says he plans to meet Putin in Budapest as Zelenskyy prepares to make missiles case at White House | Ukraine | The Guardian

    Confirms the Trump-Putin call preceded the Zelenskyy meeting and the plan for a Budapest summit.

  12. Trump Says He Will Meet Putin in Budapest After 'Great' Call - The Moscow Times

    Confirms the Trump-Putin call date (Thursday, 16 Oct 2025), the duration (two and a half hours), and Putin's warning that Tomahawks would harm 'prospects for peaceful resolution.'

  13. Trump, Putin to meet in Budapest for new Ukraine peace push - The Kyiv Independent

    Confirms the call lasted two and a half hours, the plan for a Budapest meeting 'within two weeks or so,' and that Secretary of State Marco Rubio would lead initial meetings.

  14. Commentary by Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Donald Trump

    Provides direct quotes from Yuri Ushakov on the call's nature ('very open and frank exchange'), Putin's assessment of the situation, and Trump's mention of his success in settling eight other regional conflicts.

  15. Trump says he and Putin will meet in Budapest to discuss end to Russia-Ukraine war

    Supports the date of the Trump-Putin call (Thursday, 16 Oct 2025), the duration (nearly two and a half hours), Ushakov's description of the call, and Trump's mention of First Lady Melania Trump's involvement with Ukrainian children.

  16. President Donald Trump Urges Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine War

    Supports Trump leveraging the momentum from the Gaza war ceasefire negotiations.

  17. Trump says he plans to meet Putin in Budapest as Zelenskyy prepares to make missiles case at White House

    Confirms the plan for a Trump-Putin summit in Budapest.

  18. Trump Backs Off Suggestion to Give Tomahawks to Ukraine, Again Deferring to Putin

    Confirms Secretary of State Marco Rubio will lead the initial US meetings.

  19. President Donald Trump Urges Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine War

    Supports the fact that Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian territory, Trump's quote about liking Viktor Orbán, and the overall context of Trump positioning himself as a mediator.

  20. Trump-Zelenskyy lunch: balancing missiles, mediation, and mutual understanding - EUalive

    Confirms the meeting stretched well beyond its scheduled hour.

  21. President Donald Trump Urges Ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine War

    Supports the figure that Russia controls 20% of Ukrainian territory.

  22. Zelenskyy expected to press Trump for increased long-range weapons, targeting help

    Confirms Tomahawk missiles were a key request for Kyiv.

  23. What are Tomahawk missiles and why does Ukraine want them? - The Guardian

    Supports the argument that Tomahawks would compel Putin to take negotiations more seriously.

  24. What are Tomahawk missiles and why does Ukraine want them? - The Guardian

    Provides technical specifications: long-range, guided cruise missile; modern range of 995 miles (1,600km); older variant range of 1,550 miles (2,500km); flies low to the ground; cost of $1.3 million; would allow strikes deep inside Russia; hundreds of targets in range; typical launch from ships/submarines; mentions the Typhon land-launched variant and its scarcity (US Army has two); compares range to ATACMS and Storm Shadow.

  25. TOMAHAWK MISSILES TO UKRAINE? | Range, Power & Global Impact Explained | 4K

    Supports the description of the Tomahawk as a long-range cruise missile for precision deep strike missions, its range of 1,600 km, and its ability to navigate heavily defended airspace.

  26. How Tomahawk missiles could change the war between Russia and Ukraine | CBC News

    Supports the range of at least 1,600 kilometres and the low-flying trajectory.

  27. A look at the Tomahawk, a US cruise missile that could come into play in the Ukraine war

    Supports the range of around 1,000 miles (1,600 km) and the low-flying altitude (around 100 feet/30 metres).

  28. Would Tomahawk cruise missiles be a game changer for Ukraine? - The Washington Post

    Supports the range of 1,550 miles for some variants, the comparison to ATACMS (186 miles), and the use of the Typhon truck-hauled launcher.

  29. A look at the Tomahawk, a US cruise missile that could come into play in the Ukraine war

    Supports the low-flying altitude (around 100 feet) making it harder to detect.

  30. As US mulls Tomahawks for Ukraine, here's how they could be used against Russia

    Supports the Tomahawk's ability to be reprogrammed mid-flight and loiter over a target.

  31. As US mulls Tomahawks for Ukraine, here's how they could be used against Russia

    Supports the strategic targets: military bases, logistics hubs, airfields, command centres, Moscow, St Petersburg, and the Olenya air base.

  32. American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe - Foreign Policy Research Institute

    Supports the Tomahawk's range being sufficient to target Moscow and much of European Russia.

  33. Trump meets with Zelenskyy, says he'd rather broker peace than send Tomahawks to Ukraine

    Supports Trump's preference to broker peace over sending Tomahawks, indicating a shift in priority.

  34. Trump downplays hopes he will supply Ukraine with US missiles after meeting with Zelenskyy

    Supports Trump's quote: 'We want Tomahawks, also. We don’t want to be giving away things that we need to protect our country.'

  35. A look at the Tomahawk, a US cruise missile that could come into play in the Ukraine war

    Supports the 2023 inventory estimate (4,000), the use of 135 Tomahawks against Houthi rebels, and the low rate of new missile procurement (68 in 2023, 22 in 2024).

  36. How Tomahawk missiles could change the war between Russia and Ukraine | CBC News

    Supports the dwindling supply, the use of 135 Tomahawks against Houthi rebels, the low procurement rate, the naval launch platform issue, and the lack of a ground-launch capability.

  37. Zelensky fails to secure Tomahawk missiles at talks with Trump - Yahoo News Canada

    Supports the Kremlin aide's warning that supplying Tomahawks would damage US-Russian relations and Zelenskyy's 'realistic' comment about his chances of getting them.

  38. 'No comment' on Tomahawk missiles after Trump-Zelenskyy meeting | ITV News

    Supports Zelenskyy's statement that they decided not to make public statements about the missiles because 'the United States does not want an escalation.'

  39. Reluctant to sell Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine: Trump to Zelenskyy | World News

    Supports the Ukrainian Foreign Minister's view that the talk of Tomahawks had already served a purpose by pushing Putin into talks.

  40. Tomahawks For Ukraine: A Destabilizing Move That Leaves Russia No Choice But To Respond; How Can Putin Hit Back? - EurAsian Times

    Supports the technical hurdle of Tomahawks typically being launched from ships or aircraft, which Ukraine lacks.

  41. American Missiles and Russian Dachas: Tomahawk and the Future of Stability and Deterrence in Europe - Foreign Policy Research Institute

    Supports the US Army's Typhon missile system as a ground-launched platform for the Tomahawk.

  42. Trump, Putin to meet in Budapest for new Ukraine peace push - The Kyiv Independent

    Supports Trump's earlier position in September that Ukraine could win the war and regain all lost territory.

  43. Trump meets with Zelenskyy, says he'd rather broker peace than send Tomahawks to Ukraine

    Supports Zelenskyy's quote about being 'confident that with your help, we can stop this war.'

  44. Trump to discuss Tomahawk missiles with Zelenskyy, hopes Ukraine 'won't need them'

    Supports Zelenskyy's quote about being ready to speak in 'any kind of format — bilateral, trilateral.'