A Glimmer of Hope in the Gaza Rubble

The Path to Sharm El-Sheikh: A War of Attrition

The current negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh are the culmination of a brutal and protracted conflict that began on 7 October 2023. ^{13, 20} On that day, Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups launched a surprise attack on Israel, resulting in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people, the majority of whom were civilians, and the abduction of 251 individuals to the Gaza Strip. ^{6, 20} Israel's response was a swift and extensive military campaign in Gaza, encompassing aerial bombardments and a ground invasion. ^{18, 20}

The ensuing war has had a catastrophic impact on the Gaza Strip. As of early October 2025, the Palestinian death toll has surpassed 67,000, with over 169,000 injured. ¹¹ The conflict has also triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, with the United Nations reporting that nearly 1.9 million people, over 70% of Gaza's population, are internally displaced and facing extreme exposure to climate hazards with no functioning infrastructure. ²⁶ Famine has been confirmed in the Gaza governorate, and the entire population is facing critical levels of food insecurity. ²⁷ The humanitarian situation has been exacerbated by the destruction of essential infrastructure, including hospitals and water facilities, and the challenges in delivering aid. ^{15, 17}

Throughout the conflict, there have been several attempts to broker a ceasefire. A temporary truce in November 2023 saw the release of some hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. ^{20, 21} However, this and subsequent ceasefire efforts in early 2025 ultimately collapsed, leading to a resumption of hostilities. ^{13, 20} The international community, including the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, has been actively involved in mediation efforts. ^{19, 30, 42} These efforts have been complicated by the deeply entrenched positions of both Israel and Hamas. Israel has maintained its goal of dismantling Hamas's military and governing capabilities, while Hamas has sought a permanent end to the war and the lifting of the blockade on Gaza. ³⁸

The Trump Administration's Renewed Push for Peace

The latest diplomatic initiative gained significant momentum with the unveiling of a 20-point peace plan by US President Donald Trump in late September 2025. ²⁴ This proposal, presented at the White House alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, outlines a phased approach to ending the conflict. ²⁴ The plan calls for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages within 72 hours, and a reciprocal release of Palestinian prisoners. ²⁴ It also addresses the longer-term issues of the demilitarisation of Gaza, the establishment of a transitional governing body of Palestinian technocrats under international supervision, and a pathway to large-scale reconstruction. ^{7, 24}

President Trump has taken a direct and assertive role in promoting this plan, urging both parties to "move fast" and warning of "complete obliteration" for Hamas if it insists on remaining in power. ^{22, 35} The proposal has received broad international support, with many countries viewing it as a crucial opportunity to end the bloodshed. ^{24, 36} Hamas, under pressure from regional powers such as Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, has conditionally accepted key aspects of the plan, including the release of hostages and relinquishing governing power in Gaza. ^{7, 12} However, the group has not agreed to disarm and has called for further negotiations on the details of Gaza's future governance. ^{12, 34}

The Intricacies of the Indirect Talks

The negotiations in Sharm El-Sheikh are being conducted indirectly, with Egyptian and Qatari mediators shuttling between the Israeli and Hamas delegations. ⁵ The Hamas delegation is led by Khalil al-Hayya, who recently survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Qatar. ^{5, 11} The talks are expected to be complex and potentially lengthy, with the initial focus on the logistical details of the first phase of the US-proposed plan. ^{5, 7}

A central component of this first phase is the exchange of hostages for prisoners. It is estimated that 48 Israeli and foreign nationals remain captive in Gaza, with about 20 believed to be alive. ^{6, 9, 22} In return, Israel is expected to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including some serving life sentences. ^{22, 23} The successful implementation of this exchange is seen as a critical first step towards building trust and paving the way for discussions on more contentious issues. ²⁵

Another key element of the initial phase is the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. ¹⁰ The specifics of this withdrawal, including the timeline and the extent of the redeployment, are likely to be a major point of contention. ¹² Israel is expected to seek security guarantees to prevent a resurgence of Hamas's military capabilities, while Hamas will push for a significant reduction of the Israeli military presence in the enclave. ³⁸

The provision of humanitarian aid is also a priority in the current talks. ⁷ The humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire, and a significant increase in the flow of food, water, medicine, and other essential supplies is urgently needed. ^{17, 29} Mediators will be working to establish a mechanism to ensure the safe and unimpeded delivery of aid to all parts of the Gaza Strip. ⁵

The Sticking Points: Disarmament and Governance

While the initial phase of the negotiations focuses on more immediate issues, the long-term success of any peace agreement will depend on resolving the fundamental disagreements between Israel and Hamas. The disarmament of Hamas remains a key Israeli demand and a major stumbling block in the negotiations. ⁶ Israel views Hamas's military capabilities as an existential threat and is unlikely to agree to a permanent ceasefire without concrete steps towards demilitarisation. ³⁸ Hamas, on the other hand, has so far rejected calls to lay down its arms, viewing its arsenal as a necessary tool of resistance against Israeli occupation. ³⁴

The future governance of Gaza is another highly contentious issue. ⁶ The Trump administration's plan proposes the formation of a committee of Palestinian technocrats to manage the day-to-day affairs of the enclave under international supervision. ⁷ Hamas has indicated a willingness to hand over administrative control but seeks a role in a unified Palestinian movement, a prospect that Israel is likely to oppose. ¹² The involvement of the West Bank-based Palestinian Authority in the future governance of Gaza is also a complex issue, given the long-standing rivalry between Fatah and Hamas. ^{8, 14}

The Role of Regional and International Actors

The current negotiations are not taking place in a vacuum. A number of regional and international actors are playing crucial roles in shaping the diplomatic landscape. Egypt has a long history of mediating between Israel and Palestinian factions and its geographical proximity to Gaza gives it a unique position of influence. ^{8, 14, 16} Cairo has a vested interest in ensuring stability on its border and has been actively engaged in efforts to de-escalate the conflict and facilitate humanitarian aid. ^{19, 28}

Qatar, which hosts Hamas's political leadership, has also been a key player in the mediation process. ⁴² Its financial support for Gaza and its diplomatic channels with Hamas have enabled it to exert significant influence over the group's decision-making. ⁴² The United States, under the Trump administration, has taken a more hands-on approach to the conflict, leveraging its relationship with Israel and its diplomatic weight in the region to push for a comprehensive peace deal. ³⁰ The presence of US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the talks underscores the high priority the White House has placed on achieving a breakthrough. ⁶

The Human Cost and the Cautious Hopes for Peace

The nearly two-year-long war has inflicted immense suffering on the people of Gaza. ¹⁷ The daily reality for many is one of displacement, hunger, and fear. ²⁶ The psychological trauma of the conflict, particularly on children, will have long-lasting consequences. ²⁹ In Israel, the families of the hostages have endured an agonising wait for the return of their loved ones. ⁶ The constant threat of rocket fire from Gaza has also taken a toll on Israeli communities near the border.

Despite the immense challenges and the deep-seated mistrust between the two sides, the current talks in Egypt offer a glimmer of hope. ^{11, 22} The fact that both Israel and Hamas are engaged in indirect negotiations, facilitated by key regional and international partners, is a positive development. ⁵ The international pressure for a ceasefire is mounting, and both sides are facing internal pressures to find a way out of the conflict. ^{25, 38}

The path to a lasting peace will be long and arduous. ^{37, 44} The issues at the heart of the conflict are complex and deeply rooted in history. ⁴³ However, the current diplomatic efforts represent a critical opportunity to end the current cycle of violence and to begin to address the underlying causes of the conflict. ³⁶ The success of these talks will depend on the willingness of both Israel and Hamas to make difficult compromises and to prioritise the well-being of their people over their political objectives. ³⁹ The international community has a vital role to play in supporting the mediation efforts and in helping to create the conditions for a just and lasting peace. ²³