The Crocodile's Embrace

Introduction

In the intricate and ever-shifting geopolitical landscape of the Indo-Pacific, a significant new chapter has been written. On the 6th of October 2025, the prime ministers of Australia and Papua New Guinea, Anthony Albanese and James Marape, put pen to paper on a historic mutual defence treaty in Canberra ⁶. This agreement, officially elevating the relationship between the two neighbouring countries to that of a formal alliance, is Australia's first of its kind in over seven decades and the first such treaty for Papua New Guinea with any nation ³⁰. The 'Pukpuk' treaty, named after the formidable crocodile of Papua New Guinean lore, signifies a deepening of security ties that extends beyond mere cooperation to a commitment of mutual defence in the face of an armed attack ^{6, 30}.

The treaty's provisions are far-reaching, encompassing not only a mutual defence obligation but also plans for the extensive integration of their respective military forces ⁴². A particularly noteworthy element is the creation of a pathway for up to 10,000 Papua New Guinean citizens to serve in the Australian Defence Force (ADF), a move that addresses Australia's military recruitment challenges while offering opportunities for Papua New Guineans ^{3, 4, 6}. Furthermore, Australia has committed to significant investment in the modernisation of the Papua New Guinea Defence Force (PNGDF), enhancing its capabilities across land, sea, and air domains ^{8, 10}.

While both leaders have emphasised the treaty's origins in their shared history, geography, and enduring friendship, the geopolitical undercurrents are impossible to ignore ⁴³. The signing of the Pukpuk treaty unfolds against a backdrop of intensifying strategic competition in the Pacific, primarily between the United States and its allies, and a more assertive People's Republic of China. China's expanding economic and security footprint in the region, exemplified by its 2022 security pact with the Solomon Islands, has been a source of considerable concern for Canberra and Washington ^{2, 25}. Consequently, the Australia-Papua New Guinea alliance is widely viewed as a strategic manoeuvre to counterbalance Beijing's growing influence and secure Australia's northern approaches ².

The Chinese government has not been silent on this development. While acknowledging Papua New Guinea's sovereign right to enter into bilateral agreements, Beijing has expressed its hope that such treaties will not be exclusive in nature or target the interests of third parties ^{5, 7, 9, 11, 16, 17, 18, 23}. This diplomatic response underscores the delicate balancing act that nations in the Pacific are increasingly forced to perform.

Within Papua New Guinea itself, the treaty has been met with a more complex reception. While the government has championed it as a landmark achievement that will bolster national security, some opposition figures and former military leaders have raised concerns about its potential impact on the nation's sovereignty and its long-held foreign policy of non-alignment ^{6, 26, 36}. The debate highlights the internal challenges and considerations that Pacific nations face as they navigate the pressures of great power competition.

A Shared History Forged in War and Colonialism

The roots of the contemporary relationship between Australia and Papua New Guinea are deeply embedded in a complex history of colonialism, conflict, and cooperation. This shared past provides the essential context for understanding the significance of the Pukpuk treaty. The southern half of eastern New Guinea, the Territory of Papua, came under Australian administration in 1906, following its initial annexation by the British Empire ^{22, 32, 34}. After the First World War, Australia was also granted a League of Nations mandate to govern the former German New Guinea ²². In 1949, these two territories were formally combined into the Territory of Papua and New Guinea, administered from Port Moresby ³².

The Second World War was a pivotal moment in the relationship, forging a powerful and enduring bond between the two peoples. The Kokoda Track campaign, in particular, stands as a testament to this shared experience, where Australian soldiers fought alongside Papua New Guineans to halt the advance of the Japanese Imperial Army ^{24, 25, 34}. This wartime alliance, born of necessity and shared sacrifice, laid a foundation of mutual respect and camaraderie that has resonated through the subsequent decades.

Papua New Guinea remained an external territory of Australia until it achieved independence on the 16th of September 1975 ^{22, 34}. The transition to self-governance was largely peaceful, and the two nations have maintained close ties ever since. Australia has consistently been Papua New Guinea's largest provider of development aid, and the political institutions of the newly independent nation were modelled on the Westminster system, the same as Australia's ²².

However, the post-independence relationship has not been without its complexities. For many years, the dynamic was often characterised as one of dependence, with Papua New Guinea relying heavily on Australia for economic support, education, and skilled labour ²⁹. This dependence, a legacy of the colonial era, at times constrained Papua New Guinea's ability to forge an independent foreign policy ²⁹. Over time, Papua New Guinea has sought to diversify its international partnerships, particularly in the economic sphere, with nations in Southeast and Northeast Asia becoming increasingly important trading partners ²⁹. This has led to a gradual evolution of the relationship with Australia, moving towards a more balanced and equal partnership.

A series of agreements have marked the progression of this relationship. The "Agreement on Trade and Commercial Relations between the Government of Australia and the Government of Papua New Guinea (PATCRA)" in 1977 established a free trade area between the two nations ²². This was followed by the "Joint Declaration of Principles Guiding Relations Between Australia and Papua New Guinea" in 1987 and an expanded trade agreement, PATCRA II, in 1991 ²². More recently, the "Papua New Guinea-Australia Comprehensive Strategic and Economic Partnership (CSEP)" was signed in 2020, setting the stage for even closer ties and paving the way for the development of a bilateral security treaty ^{22, 24, 37}.

The Geopolitical Chessboard of the Pacific

The signing of the Pukpuk treaty cannot be fully understood without appreciating the broader geopolitical context of the Pacific Islands region. In recent years, this vast expanse of ocean, once considered a relative backwater in global affairs, has become a focal point of strategic competition between major world powers. The primary driver of this shift has been the rise of China and its increasingly assertive foreign policy under President Xi Jinping.

China's engagement in the Pacific has been multifaceted, encompassing economic, diplomatic, and, more recently, security dimensions. Through its Belt and Road Initiative and other development assistance programs, Beijing has invested billions of dollars in infrastructure projects across the region, including roads, ports, and government buildings ¹⁶. This economic largesse has been welcomed by many Pacific Island nations, which face significant development challenges. However, it has also raised concerns among Western powers about the potential for "debt-trap diplomacy" and the strategic leverage that such investments might afford Beijing.

Diplomatically, China has been successful in persuading several Pacific nations to switch their diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the People's Republic of China, further isolating Taipei on the international stage ¹⁶. This has been a key objective of Chinese foreign policy and has been achieved through a combination of economic incentives and diplomatic pressure.

The most significant development in China's Pacific engagement, and the one that has caused the most alarm in Canberra and Washington, has been its foray into the security sphere. The signing of a security agreement between China and the Solomon Islands in 2022 was a watershed moment ^{2, 25}. The pact, the details of which have not been fully publicised, raised the prospect of a Chinese naval base being established in the South Pacific, a scenario that would fundamentally alter the strategic balance in the region and directly challenge the security interests of Australia and the United States ²³.

In response to China's growing influence, the United States and its allies, particularly Australia, have significantly stepped up their own engagement with the Pacific Islands. This has involved increased development aid, high-level diplomatic visits, and a renewed focus on security cooperation. The United States has reopened embassies in the region and has sought to strengthen its alliances and partnerships.

Australia, given its geographical proximity and historical ties, has been at the forefront of these efforts. Canberra has long considered the Pacific to be its primary sphere of influence and has viewed China's encroachment with considerable unease. The "Pacific Step-up" policy, initiated by the previous Australian government and continued under the current administration, has aimed to deepen Australia's engagement with the region across all sectors.

It is within this context of heightened geopolitical competition that the Australia-Papua New Guinea defence treaty has been forged. For Australia, securing a formal alliance with its nearest neighbour is a crucial strategic imperative. Papua New Guinea's geographic location is of immense importance. It sits at a critical juncture between Asia and the Pacific, and its northern coastline provides a strategic buffer for the Australian mainland ^{2, 8}. A strong and stable Papua New Guinea, closely aligned with Australia's security interests, is seen as essential for the defence of Australia.

The Pukpuk treaty, therefore, can be seen as a key component of a broader strategy to consolidate a network of alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific to counter China's influence. It is a clear signal to Beijing that Australia is determined to maintain its position as the primary security partner for nations in its immediate neighbourhood.

The 'Pukpuk' Treaty: A Deeper Dive into the Provisions

The 'Pukpuk' treaty represents a significant evolution in the security relationship between Australia and Papua New Guinea, moving beyond cooperation to a formal alliance with binding commitments. The centrepiece of the agreement is its mutual defence clause, which commits both nations to come to each other's aid in the event of an armed attack ^{6, 30}. This provision elevates the partnership to a level comparable to Australia's long-standing alliances with the United States and New Zealand under the ANZUS treaty ^{4, 17, 18, 26, 35}.

A key and innovative aspect of the treaty is the provision for up to 10,000 Papua New Guinean citizens to serve in the Australian Defence Force (ADF) ^{3, 4, 6}. This arrangement is intended to be mutually beneficial. For Australia, it offers a potential solution to its ongoing challenges with military recruitment, which has seen the ADF fall short of its personnel targets ^{15, 19, 39, 42}. For Papua New Guinea, it provides significant employment and training opportunities for its youthful population, with the added prospect of a pathway to Australian citizenship ^{8, 13, 28, 35, 42}. However, this provision has also raised some concerns within Papua New Guinea about a potential "brain drain" from its own defence force, an issue that both governments have acknowledged will need to be carefully managed ^{8, 42}.

The treaty also commits Australia to a substantial investment in the modernisation of the Papua New Guinea Defence Force (PNGDF) ^{4, 8, 10}. This will involve the provision of new military hardware and equipment, as well as enhanced training and capacity-building programs ^{8, 10}. The aim is to improve the interoperability of the two forces, enabling them to work together more effectively in a range of scenarios, from humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to joint combat operations ^{2, 19, 30, 35}. The modernisation efforts will span all branches of the PNGDF, including its navy, air wing, and infantry battalions ¹⁰. There are also plans to develop a national reserve force of 3,000 volunteers in Papua New Guinea ⁴.

Another important provision of the treaty is the agreement that neither nation will undertake any activities or enter into any agreements with third parties that would compromise the implementation of the treaty ^{3, 17, 18, 23}. This clause is widely seen as being directed at China, effectively giving Australia a degree of influence over Papua New Guinea's future security partnerships ⁶. While Papua New Guinean Prime Minister James Marape has insisted that the treaty does not preclude cooperation with other nations, this provision is likely to be a point of contention for Beijing ⁶.

The treaty also addresses a range of non-traditional security threats, including climate change, cybersecurity, and transnational crime ³⁷. This reflects a broader understanding of security in the 21st century and acknowledges the multifaceted challenges facing the Pacific region.

The legal and constitutional implications of the treaty have also been a subject of discussion. In Papua New Guinea, for a treaty to enter into force, it must be ratified by the parliament and given effect through domestic law ^{21, 37}. Prime Minister Marape has stated that the treaty is consistent with the country's constitution, which allows for the PNGDF to work in synergy with visiting defence forces ^{10, 26}. However, some legal experts and opposition figures have questioned this interpretation, suggesting that the treaty's provisions could be challenged in court ^{12, 26}.

The View from Beijing: A Cautious Response

China's reaction to the Australia-Papua New Guinea defence treaty has been carefully calibrated, reflecting a desire to express its concerns without unduly alienating Port Moresby. The Chinese government has consistently stated that it respects Papua New Guinea's sovereign right to enter into bilateral agreements with other countries ^{5, 7}. However, it has also made it clear that it believes such agreements should not be exclusive in nature or target the interests of third parties ^{5, 7, 9, 11, 16, 17, 18, 23}.

In a statement released by the Chinese embassy in Port Moresby, Beijing urged Papua New Guinea to "uphold independence and self-reliance" and to "properly handle issues bearing on its sovereignty and long-term interests" ^{5, 7}. This language can be interpreted as a subtle warning to Port Moresby not to become too closely aligned with Australia and, by extension, the United States.

The Chinese government has also sought to portray Australia's actions in the Pacific as part of a broader strategy to contain China's rise. A pro-China narrative suggests that Australia is pursuing a "two-faced policy" of seeking economic benefits from its relationship with China while simultaneously building military alliances against it ⁹. This, it is argued, is escalating tensions in the region ⁹.

Despite these concerns, China has been careful to maintain a positive relationship with Papua New Guinea. Prime Minister James Marape has stated that he has been transparent with Beijing about the defence treaty with Australia and that China understands that Australia is Papua New Guinea's "security partner of choice" ^{13, 17}. He has also emphasised that the treaty is not intended to create enemies and that Papua New Guinea will continue to maintain friendly relations with all nations, including China ^{6, 17}. To this end, Marape has indicated that his defence minister will travel to China to explain the treaty and reassure Beijing of Papua New Guinea's intentions ¹⁶.

The Pukpuk treaty places China in a delicate diplomatic position. On the one hand, it represents a setback to its ambitions of expanding its security influence in the Pacific. On the other hand, a heavy-handed response could risk pushing Papua New Guinea and other Pacific nations further into the arms of the West. Beijing's cautious and measured response to date suggests that it is aware of this dilemma and is seeking to navigate it with care.

Domestic Debates in Papua New Guinea: Sovereignty and Strategy

The signing of the Pukpuk treaty has not been without controversy within Papua New Guinea. While the government of Prime Minister James Marape has hailed it as a historic achievement that will enhance the nation's security and provide valuable opportunities for its citizens, some prominent figures have raised serious concerns about its implications for the country's sovereignty and its long-standing foreign policy of non-alignment.

A key point of contention is the potential for the treaty to draw Papua New Guinea into conflicts that are not of its own making. Critics, including former military leaders, have warned that by aligning itself so closely with Australia, Papua New Guinea risks becoming entangled in the broader geopolitical competition between the United States and China ^{36, 38}. They argue that the treaty could make Papua New Guinea a target in any future conflict between the major powers ²⁶.

The treaty has also been criticised for potentially undermining Papua New Guinea's foreign policy of being "friends to all, enemies to none" ^{5, 12, 13, 26}. This policy, which has been a cornerstone of the country's international relations since independence, is seen by some as being compromised by the establishment of a formal military alliance with Australia. They argue that the treaty effectively forces Papua New Guinea to choose sides in the great power rivalry, a position that could have negative consequences for its relationships with other important partners, particularly China.

Concerns have also been raised about the lack of public consultation and debate surrounding the treaty ^{12, 26}. Some opposition figures have argued that such a significant agreement, with far-reaching implications for the nation's future, should have been subject to a more thorough and transparent process of public scrutiny ^{6, 12}. The fact that the treaty was negotiated largely behind closed doors has fuelled suspicions that the government may have conceded too much to Australia.

The provision allowing Papua New Guinean citizens to serve in the Australian Defence Force has also been a subject of debate. While it is seen by many as a positive development that will create jobs and opportunities, some have expressed concern that it could lead to a "brain drain" from the PNGDF, with the most talented and experienced personnel being lured away by the higher pay and better conditions offered by the ADF ^{8, 39, 42}. This, it is argued, could weaken Papua New Guinea's own military capabilities in the long run ^{20, 39}.

In response to these criticisms, the Marape government has mounted a strong defence of the treaty. The Prime Minister has insisted that the agreement does not compromise Papua New Guinea's sovereignty and that the country will retain its independent foreign policy ^{6, 17}. He has also argued that the treaty is essential for addressing the country's pressing security challenges, such as illegal fishing, drug trafficking, and transnational crime ¹². The government has also emphasised the economic benefits of the treaty, particularly the employment opportunities that will be created for young Papua New Guineans.

The domestic debate over the Pukpuk treaty highlights the complex challenges facing Papua New Guinea as it seeks to navigate the increasingly turbulent waters of the Pacific. The treaty offers the promise of enhanced security and economic opportunity, but it also raises fundamental questions about the nation's identity, its place in the world, and its ability to maintain its independence in an era of great power competition.

The Broader Implications for the Pacific and Beyond

The Australia-Papua New Guinea defence treaty has implications that extend far beyond the bilateral relationship. It is a significant development in the evolving security architecture of the Indo-Pacific and is likely to have a ripple effect across the region.

For the other island nations of the Pacific, the treaty serves as a powerful reminder of the intensifying geopolitical competition in their region. It may prompt them to reassess their own security arrangements and to consider more formalised partnerships with either the Western powers or China. The treaty could also encourage greater security cooperation among the Pacific Island nations themselves, as they seek to assert their collective agency and avoid being pawns in a great power game.

The United States is likely to view the Pukpuk treaty as a positive development that strengthens the network of alliances and partnerships it is seeking to build in the Indo-Pacific to counter China. The treaty complements the United States' own security agreement with Papua New Guinea, which was signed in May 2023 and grants US forces access to key military facilities in the country ^{2, 40, 41}. The closer integration of the Australian and Papua New Guinean defence forces will enhance the overall capabilities of the Western alliance in the region.

For other regional powers, such as Japan and Indonesia, the treaty is likely to be viewed with a mixture of interest and caution. Japan, which shares concerns about China's growing assertiveness, may see the treaty as a positive step towards greater regional stability. Indonesia, which shares a land border with Papua New Guinea, will be watching closely to see how the treaty affects the security dynamics in its immediate neighbourhood.

The Pukpuk treaty also has broader implications for the nature of security partnerships in the 21st century. The inclusion of provisions to address non-traditional security threats, such as climate change and cybersecurity, reflects a more holistic understanding of security that is becoming increasingly prevalent. The innovative approach to military recruitment, with the pathway for Papua New Guinean citizens to serve in the ADF, could also serve as a model for other countries facing similar demographic and recruitment challenges.

However, the treaty also carries risks. It could lead to an escalation of tensions between the Western powers and China in the Pacific, with the region becoming increasingly militarised. It could also exacerbate internal divisions within Pacific Island nations, as they are pressured to choose sides in the great power rivalry. The success of the Pukpuk treaty will ultimately depend on whether it can contribute to a more stable and secure Pacific, or whether it will simply add another layer of complexity to an already fraught geopolitical landscape.

Conclusion

The signing of the Pukpuk treaty marks a pivotal moment in the history of the Australia-Papua New Guinea relationship and in the broader geopolitics of the Pacific. It is a bold and ambitious agreement that seeks to address the security challenges of the 21st century through a combination of traditional military alliance and innovative forms of cooperation.

For Australia, the treaty is a significant strategic victory, securing its northern flank and consolidating its position as the primary security partner for its nearest neighbour. For Papua New Guinea, it offers the promise of a more secure future and valuable opportunities for its people, but it also presents significant challenges to its sovereignty and its long-held policy of non-alignment.

The treaty is a clear response to the growing influence of China in the Pacific, and it is likely to be seen as a key move in the great power chess game that is being played out across the region. The cautious but concerned reaction from Beijing underscores the delicate diplomatic balancing act that all parties will now have to perform.

The ultimate success of the Pukpuk treaty will depend on its implementation. The ambitious plans for military integration and modernisation will require sustained commitment and investment from both sides. The concerns of the Papua New Guinean people about sovereignty and entanglement will need to be addressed through transparency and open dialogue. And the broader geopolitical implications will need to be managed with care and diplomacy to avoid an escalation of tensions in the region.

The crocodile's embrace is a powerful one, but it is also a complex and potentially perilous one. The Pukpuk treaty has the potential to be a force for stability and prosperity in the Pacific, but it could also become a source of conflict and division. The path that Australia and Papua New Guinea now choose to take will have profound consequences not only for their own futures but for the future of the entire Indo-Pacific region.