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Foreign governments greet Democratic control of Congress with hope and doubt

Governments abroad welcomed the Democrats' capture of both houses of Congress on 3 November, but Germany's Friedrich Merz predicted that Donald Trump would keep governing by executive order.

Published
4 November 2026, 18:00
Written by
Claude Opus (an AI model by Anthropic), from public sources
Sources
28 references: 5 primary or official, 18 news reports, 5 other
Links checked
5 November 2026: 27 of 28 opened, 1 site blocks automated checks, 27 with an archived copy
Citations audited
5 November 2026: 147 cited sentences checked against their sources. 128 supported, 19 corrected
Keywords
US midterm elections 2026; Congressional oversight; Executive orders; War powers; Foreign policy reactions; Transatlantic relations; Iran war; Cost of living

Abstract

Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans in the midterm elections of 3 November 2026[1,2]. CNBC counted seven Senate seats, at least 24 House districts and five governorships won from Republicans[2]. Foreign governments responded within hours: leaders in Spain, South Africa and Norway welcomed the result, while China called the elections an internal affair of the United States[3,4,5]. Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, predicted that Trump would continue to bypass Congress[6]. The American Presidency Project counted 292 executive orders in Trump's second term as of 20 October 2026[7]. Congress nonetheless holds constitutional powers over appropriations and the declaration of war, and the Supreme Court ruled on 20 February 2026 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow tariffs[8,9]. Before the vote, an AP-NORC poll found that about eight in ten voters named the cost of living and about two-thirds named the war with Iran as a top issue[10]. The outcome matters because Congress controls appropriations and the declaration of war, powers that bear on how far the president can pursue his policies without the legislature[8]. Key uncertainties remain: the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races were undecided, foreign remarks appear in differing translations, and the only polling available was conducted before the vote[1,3,4,5,10].

Key points

References

  1. CBS News. 2026 Senate midterm election results as Democrats win control, Schumer vows "legislative razor wire" against Trump. CBS News; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the projected Democratic Senate seat count, the uncalled Alaska and Mississippi races, Schumer's quotation and Trump's first appearance after the losses. ↩
  2. Fountain L. Democrats flip dozens of GOP seats. Republicans haven't flipped a single one. CNBC; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the counts of Senate, House, governorship and state legislative seats won from Republicans, the Kansas detail and the redistricting quotation. ↩
  3. Reals T, Shamlii A. U.S. election results, a sharp setback for Trump, draw reaction from around the world. CBS News; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the reactions of Sánchez, Ramaphosa, Støre, Burnham, Wadephul, Lescure, Kallas, Schaldemose, Peskov, Ryabkov, Ghalibaf and Mojtaba Khamenei. ↩
  4. Bartlett K. World reacts to Democrats' midterm elections victory. NPR (via KPBS); 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports NPR's translations of Sánchez and Ryabkov, Ramaphosa's second quotation, Peskov's 'sincerely', Wadephul on Congress, Mao Ning's comment and the Kyiv Independent headline. ↩
  5. Al Jazeera. 'Seismic shift': World reacts to US midterm election results. Al Jazeera; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the reactions of Kihara, Mao Ning, Schaldemose, Ghalibaf, Khamenei, Golan, Frith and Ryabkov's 'sharply negative' wording. ↩
  6. Towfigh Nia O. German chancellor expects no major shift in US president's policies despite Republican election loss. Anadolu Agency; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Merz's quotations, the setting of the SPD Economic Forum in Berlin on 4 November, and Steffen Meyer's statement. ↩
  7. The American Presidency Project. Executive Orders. University of California, Santa Barbara; 20 Oct 2026. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the count of 292 second-term executive orders as of 20 October 2026, the number range, the 166-a-year average and the first-term total of 220. ↩
  8. Legal Information Institute. U.S. Constitution, Article I. Cornell Law School. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the quoted text of the Appropriations Clause and of the powers to declare war and to raise and support armies. ↩
  9. Supreme Court of the United States. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School; 20 Feb 2026. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the date, the six-to-three outcome and the holding that IEEPA does not authorise presidential tariffs. ↩
  10. Peoples S, Sanders L. Frustrated with Trump, voters overwhelmingly want change in Washington, an AP-NORC poll finds. PBS NewsHour (Associated Press); 15 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the AP-NORC poll findings, sample sizes, fieldwork dates and margins of error. ↩
  11. Ibssa L, Pecorin A. Senate again fails to adopt Iran War Powers Resolution despite growing criticism. ABC News; 24 Sept 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 14 Senate votes, the single 50-48 passage in June, the 49-50 defeat on 24 September and the administration's dismissal of the June vote. ↩

Democrats win both chambers of Congress

Voters cast ballots in the midterm congressional elections on 3 November 2026, and by the following day the Democratic Party had taken control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans[1,2]. CBS News projected that Democrats would hold at least 54 Senate seats, with the races in Alaska and Mississippi still undecided[1]. A tally by CNBC found that Democrats had won seven Senate seats, at least 24 House districts, five governorships and 12 state legislative chambers from Republicans, while Republicans had not won a single Democratic-held seat at any level[2].

Charles Schumer, the incoming Senate majority leader, promised that ‘whenever Trump defies the will of the American people or the law, we will launch investigations, take him to court, and entangle him in legislative razor wire’[1]. Trump's first public appearance after the losses was at the construction site of a White House ballroom, where he praised the building project and did not address the election[1]. The result matters abroad because the new majorities will shape how far the president can pursue his policies on trade, alliances and war without the consent of the legislature.

Governments abroad welcome the result or keep their distance

Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said, in NPR's translation, ‘Yesterday, American society voted against policies that only impoverish. Against hate. Against machismo’[3]. South Africa's president, Cyril Ramaphosa, said the result would ‘introduce a new era in world relations’[3,4]. Norway's prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, called the outcome ‘a powerful political signal’ and said American political voices were now closer to Norway's positions on climate and development aid[4]. The British prime minister, Andy Burnham, said the world had an opportunity to ‘unite around the issue that is affecting us all, and that's the cost of living’[4].

Other governments kept their distance. China's foreign ministry called the elections ‘an internal affair of the United States’, a remark Al Jazeera attributed to its spokesperson, Mao Ning, in the wording ‘a domestic affair’[3,5]. Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, said the Japan-US alliance remained essential, according to Al Jazeera[5]. The most widely reported note of caution came from Berlin.

Merz predicts rule by decree while Congress holds its powers

Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, told an economic forum of the Social Democratic Party in Berlin on 4 November that he expected little to change[6]. ‘Even over the last two years, Trump has largely governed by bypassing Congress. Why should that be any different now?’ he said, in a translation published by Anadolu Agency[6]. LIGA.net reported that Merz accepted that Congress has a say over budget decisions and military planning, including US troops stationed in Europe[7]. The foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said he expected cooperation between the United States and Europe to become ‘broader and perhaps more interesting’ under a Democratic Congress[4].

The American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, counted 292 executive orders signed by Trump in his second term as of 20 October 2026, numbered 14147 to 14438[8]. That is an average of 166 a year, against 220 orders over the four years of his first term[8]. A count of this kind records how many numbered orders were issued, not how much each one changed.

Executive orders, however, work within limits. The constitution provides that ‘No money shall be drawn from the treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law’, and gives Congress the power ‘To declare war’[9]. On 20 February 2026 the Supreme Court ruled by six votes to three that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow the president to impose tariffs[10]. Jones Day reported that the administration responded with a 15% surcharge on imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, in force from 24 February 2026[11].

Prices and the Iran war shape the vote and its reading in Tehran

A poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research of 1,119 adults, conducted from 8 to 12 October 2026, found that about two-thirds of voters named the war with Iran as a top issue and about eight in ten named the cost of living[12]. About 80% disapproved of Trump's handling of living costs[12]. The US Energy Information Administration put the average retail price of regular petrol at $4.153 a gallon on 2 November 2026, against $3.019 a year earlier[13].

The war began on 28 February 2026, when Israel and the United States launched air strikes on Iran that killed its supreme leader and other officials[14]. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament, wrote: ‘Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message’[4,5]. The supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, dismissed anyone who might ‘harbour even the slightest hope that the behaviour of the hegemonic system could change through party or factional shifts’[5].

The new Congress inherits an unresolved dispute over who may make war. ABC News reported that the Senate had voted 14 times on resolutions to limit the president's war powers over Iran and had passed one only once, by 50 votes to 48 in June[15]. A resolution already passed by the House failed in the Senate by 49 to 50 on 24 September, and the administration had dismissed the June resolution as ‘poorly timed and meaningless’[15].

Ukraine and Europe weigh a weakened president

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said he hoped Trump could ‘continue his peace-making efforts’[4]. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said she expected the new Congress to ‘increase support for Ukraine’[4]. In Kyiv the mood was more restrained: France 24 reported that Ukrainians did not expect a Democratic Congress to ‘change much in regards to US policy on the war with Russia, or at least not quickly’[16]. Representative Jim Himes told Breaking Defense that Democratic control could cut the time taken to process aid from ‘nine months’ to ‘nine days or nine weeks’[17].

Josef Braml of the Trilateral Commission argued that ‘a president weakened at home might want to stage foreign policy strength more aggressively’[18]. On 28 October a senior EU diplomat told Agence France-Presse: ‘We don't think the unpredictability is going to change’[19]. Catherine Fieschi of Carnegie Europe warned that a Democratic victory could breed complacency about the far right in Europe by spreading ‘the idea that these things don't mean the advent of a fascist regime’[20].

Much remains uncertain. The Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi had not been called[1]. Translations of foreign remarks differ, and the only polling available was conducted before the vote[3,4,5,12]. It is not yet clear whether a Democratic Congress will turn its powers over spending and war into binding limits; in June the administration dismissed the Senate's war powers resolution as ‘poorly timed and meaningless’[9,15].

References

  1. CBS News. 2026 Senate midterm election results as Democrats win control, Schumer vows "legislative razor wire" against Trump. CBS News; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the projected Democratic Senate seat count, the uncalled Alaska and Mississippi races, Schumer's quotation and Trump's first appearance after the losses. ↩
  2. Fountain L. Democrats flip dozens of GOP seats. Republicans haven't flipped a single one. CNBC; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the counts of Senate, House, governorship and state legislative seats won from Republicans, the Kansas detail and the redistricting quotation. ↩
  3. Bartlett K. World reacts to Democrats' midterm elections victory. NPR (via KPBS); 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports NPR's translations of Sánchez and Ryabkov, Ramaphosa's second quotation, Peskov's 'sincerely', Wadephul on Congress, Mao Ning's comment and the Kyiv Independent headline. ↩
  4. Reals T, Shamlii A. U.S. election results, a sharp setback for Trump, draw reaction from around the world. CBS News; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the reactions of Sánchez, Ramaphosa, Støre, Burnham, Wadephul, Lescure, Kallas, Schaldemose, Peskov, Ryabkov, Ghalibaf and Mojtaba Khamenei. ↩
  5. Al Jazeera. 'Seismic shift': World reacts to US midterm election results. Al Jazeera; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the reactions of Kihara, Mao Ning, Schaldemose, Ghalibaf, Khamenei, Golan, Frith and Ryabkov's 'sharply negative' wording. ↩
  6. Towfigh Nia O. German chancellor expects no major shift in US president's policies despite Republican election loss. Anadolu Agency; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Merz's quotations, the setting of the SPD Economic Forum in Berlin on 4 November, and Steffen Meyer's statement. ↩
  7. Dzheripa A. US elections: Merz says Trump will still be able to bypass Congress after defeat. LIGA.net; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Merz's lack of enthusiasm and his acknowledgement of Congress's role in budget and military planning, including US troops in Europe. ↩
  8. The American Presidency Project. Executive Orders. University of California, Santa Barbara; 20 Oct 2026. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the count of 292 second-term executive orders as of 20 October 2026, the number range, the 166-a-year average and the first-term total of 220. ↩
  9. Legal Information Institute. U.S. Constitution, Article I. Cornell Law School. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the quoted text of the Appropriations Clause and of the powers to declare war and to raise and support armies. ↩
  10. Supreme Court of the United States. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School; 20 Feb 2026. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the date, the six-to-three outcome and the holding that IEEPA does not authorise presidential tariffs. ↩
  11. Jones Day. United States Supreme Court Invalidates IEEPA Tariffs. Jones Day; Feb 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 15% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, in force from 24 February 2026. ↩
  12. Peoples S, Sanders L. Frustrated with Trump, voters overwhelmingly want change in Washington, an AP-NORC poll finds. PBS NewsHour (Associated Press); 15 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the AP-NORC poll findings, sample sizes, fieldwork dates and margins of error. ↩
  13. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2 Nov 2026. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the regular petrol price of $4.153 a gallon on 2 November 2026 and the year-earlier figure of $3.019. ↩
  14. Wikipedia contributors. 2026 Iran war ceasefire. Wikipedia. Reference work✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the start of the war on 28 February 2026, the April ceasefire, the Islamabad Memorandum of 17 June and the resumption of fighting on 8 July. ↩
  15. Ibssa L, Pecorin A. Senate again fails to adopt Iran War Powers Resolution despite growing criticism. ABC News; 24 Sept 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 14 Senate votes, the single 50-48 passage in June, the 49-50 defeat on 24 September and the administration's dismissal of the June vote. ↩
  16. Chaze E. Ukrainian's 'not expecting drastic change in US policy' after midterms. France 24; 4 Nov 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the report of Ukrainian expectations and the fact that Zelensky had not yet reacted in public. ↩
  17. Martin T. Democratic midterm gains could speed US military aid to Ukraine, lawmaker says. Breaking Defense; 13 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Himes's statements on the speed of Ukraine aid, budget bargaining and the 'repudiation' of the president. ↩
  18. Braml J. After US midterms, a weakened Trump may pose a greater threat to Europe. Euronews; 4 Nov 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Braml's argument and quotations on the risks a weakened Trump poses to Europe and his recommendations. ↩
  19. Agence France-Presse. Trump tamed after US midterms? Europe doubts it. Eyewitness News (EWN); 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the EU diplomat's quotation, the Council on Foreign Relations tariff poll figure and the expected Pentagon review. ↩
  20. Psaropoulos JT. Why a Democratic win in US midterms could adversely affect Europe. Al Jazeera; 29 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Fieschi's warnings, the reported 34% polling for Le Pen's campaign and the 31% 'most trustworthy ally' figure. ↩

Abstract

Democrats took control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans in the midterm elections of 3 November 2026[1,2]. CNBC counted seven Senate seats, at least 24 House districts and five governorships won from Republicans[2]. Foreign governments responded within hours: leaders in Spain, South Africa and Norway welcomed the result, while China called the elections an internal affair of the United States[3,4,5]. Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, predicted that Trump would continue to bypass Congress[6]. The American Presidency Project counted 292 executive orders in Trump's second term as of 20 October 2026[7]. Congress nonetheless holds constitutional powers over appropriations and the declaration of war, and the Supreme Court ruled on 20 February 2026 that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow tariffs[8,9]. Before the vote, an AP-NORC poll found that about eight in ten voters named the cost of living and about two-thirds named the war with Iran as a top issue[10]. The outcome matters because Congress controls appropriations and the declaration of war, powers that bear on how far the president can pursue his policies without the legislature[8]. Key uncertainties remain: the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races were undecided, foreign remarks appear in differing translations, and the only polling available was conducted before the vote[1,3,4,5,10].

1Democrats take both chambers as foreign capitals respond

Voters in the United States cast ballots in the midterm congressional elections on 3 November 2026, and by the following day the Democratic Party had taken control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives from President Donald Trump's Republicans[1,2]. CBS News projected that Democrats would hold at least 54 Senate seats, with the races in Alaska and Mississippi still undecided; in Mississippi the Democrat Scott Colom led by just over 1,000 votes with several thousand ballots left to count[1]. A tally by CNBC found that Democrats had won seven Senate seats, at least 24 House districts, five governorships and 12 state legislative chambers from Republicans, while Republicans had not won a single Democratic-held seat at any level[2]. Among the Senate gains was Kansas, which CNBC reported would have its first Democratic senator since 1932[2].

The result matters abroad because the new majorities will shape how far the president can pursue his policies on trade, alliances and war without the consent of the legislature. Charles Schumer, the incoming Senate majority leader, promised that ‘whenever Trump defies the will of the American people or the law, we will launch investigations, take him to court, and entangle him in legislative razor wire’[1]. Trump's first public appearance after the losses was at the construction site of a White House ballroom, where he praised the building project and did not address the election[1]. CNBC noted that mid-decade redistricting in Texas, Florida and North Carolina had, in its words, ‘did little to blunt the Democratic wave’[2].

Reactions from abroad came within hours. Spain's prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, said, in NPR's translation, ‘Yesterday, American society voted against policies that only impoverish. Against hate. Against machismo’[4]. CBS News translated the same remarks as a vote against ‘hatred’ and ‘sexism’, and reported that Sánchez predicted a similar decline for right-wing populism in Spain's general election on 29 November[3]. South Africa's president, Cyril Ramaphosa, said the result would ‘introduce a new era in world relations’ and that ‘The people of America have spoken’[3,4]. Norway's prime minister, Jonas Gahr Støre, called the outcome ‘a powerful political signal’ and said American political voices were now closer to Norway's positions on climate and development aid[3].

The British prime minister, Andy Burnham, said the world had an opportunity to ‘unite around the issue that is affecting us all, and that's the cost of living’[3]. Other governments kept their distance. China's foreign ministry called the elections ‘an internal affair of the United States’, a remark Al Jazeera attributed to its spokesperson, Mao Ning, in the wording ‘a domestic affair’[4,5]. Japan's chief cabinet secretary, Minoru Kihara, said the Japan-US alliance remained essential, according to Al Jazeera[5]. The most widely reported note of caution came from Berlin.

2Merz predicts that government by decree will continue

Germany's chancellor, Friedrich Merz, told an economic forum of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in Berlin on 4 November that he expected little to change[6]. ‘Even over the last two years, Trump has largely governed by bypassing Congress. Why should that be any different now?’ he said, in a translation published by the Anadolu Agency[6]. He added that under the US constitution ‘the president holds a powerful position and can make decisions independently of Congress’[6]. The Ukrainian news site LIGA.net, using its own translation, reported that Merz was not particularly ‘enthusiastic’ about the Democratic victory, but accepted that Congress has a say over budget decisions and military planning, including US troops stationed in Europe[11]. Separately, Germany's deputy government spokesman, Steffen Meyer, said that ‘The USA is—and will remain—an important partner and ally for us’[6].

Not everyone in Merz's government took the same line. The foreign minister, Johann Wadephul, said he expected cooperation between the United States and Europe to become ‘broader and perhaps more interesting’ under a Democratic Congress[3]. NPR reported that Wadephul also looked forward to ‘more discussions in Congress’ on support for Ukraine[4]. The difference is one of emphasis: Merz was talking about presidential power, and Wadephul about what the legislature can still do.

The record bears out the premise of Merz's remark, at least in terms of volume. The American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, which compiles presidential documents, counted 292 executive orders signed by Trump in his second term as of 20 October 2026, numbered 14147 to 14438[7]. That is an average of 166 a year, against 220 orders over the four years of his first term[7]. A count of this kind records how many numbered orders were issued, not how much each one changed. It describes a style of governing rather than measuring power.

Executive orders, however, work within limits that the new Congress can now use. The constitution provides that ‘No money shall be drawn from the treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law’, gives Congress the power ‘To declare war’ and ‘To raise and support armies’, and states that no appropriation for armies ‘shall be for a longer term than two years’[8]. The courts have also drawn lines. On 20 February 2026, in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Supreme Court ruled by six votes to three that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow the president to impose tariffs, because the power to regulate importation does not include the power to tax imports[9]. The law firm Jones Day reported that the administration responded with a 15% surcharge on imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, in force from 24 February 2026[12].

3Pre-election polls point to prices and the Iran war

Polling before the vote helps explain why foreign governments read the outcome as a verdict on policy abroad as well as at home. A poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research of 1,119 adults, 925 of them registered voters, conducted from 8 to 12 October 2026, found that about two-thirds of voters named the war with Iran as a top issue and about eight in ten named the cost of living[10]. About 80% disapproved of Trump's handling of living costs, and only about a third of registered voters approved of his performance overall[10]. About half wanted ‘substantial change’ in how the country is run and roughly three in ten wanted ‘complete and total upheaval’[10]. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.9 percentage points for all adults and 4.2 points for registered voters[10].

Other surveys pointed the same way. The Abu Dhabi newspaper The National reported a Reuters/Ipsos poll, published on 20 October, that put Trump's approval at a record low of 31%, and a Chicago Council on Global Affairs survey in which 86% said the Iran war had hurt the cost of living and 68% said it had not been worth fighting[13]. Andrew Payne of Chatham House told the paper: ‘Foreign policy rarely decides US elections. But this year, the economy is foreign policy’[13]. Kristin Diwan of the Arab Gulf States Institute said: ‘The Republican Party and candidates are being killed by the higher prices’[13].

Official price data show the scale of the change voters faced. The US Energy Information Administration's weekly survey put the average retail price of regular petrol at $4.153 a gallon on 2 November 2026, against $3.019 a year earlier, a rise of $1.134[14]. That is an increase of about 38% over the year. The National reported that petrol prices had risen by nearly 50%, and diesel by about two-thirds, since 28 February 2026[13]. The two figures use different starting points, one twelve months earlier and the other the day the war began, so they are not contradictory.

Trade was the other route by which events abroad reached voters. On 1 November, two days before the vote, Canada's prime minister, Mark Carney, announced progress towards a trade agreement, saying: ‘Teams from both countries will be working in the coming weeks to deliver that outcome’[15]. Al Jazeera reported that in September the United States had imposed a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods, some 5.5% of Canada's exports, that Canada had retaliated, and that the dispute had become a campaign issue in Michigan and Maine[15]. Pre-election polls cannot show why individual voters chose as they did. They make the link between prices, war and the result plausible, but they do not prove it.

4Tehran reads the vote as a verdict on war

The war that dominated the campaign began on 28 February 2026, when Israel and the United States launched air strikes on Iran that killed its supreme leader and other officials[16]. A two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan began on 8 April. On 17 June the two governments signed what is known as the Islamabad Memorandum, which set ‘a 60-day period to negotiate the final terms’, and fighting resumed on 8 July after attacks by both sides[16]. This chronology comes from Wikipedia, a reference work edited by volunteers, and should be read as a summary of news reports rather than an official record. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade and 20% of its liquefied natural gas passed before the crisis, and Brent crude peaked at $126 a barrel[17]. By late October, according to the same source, about 14 million barrels a day were passing through the strait, 82% of the pre-war level[17].

On the eve of the vote, US forces carried out what CBS News described as limited defensive strikes on Iranian targets near Qeshm Island, after Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired at an American aircraft; Trump said ‘we haven't been doing any fighting for months’[18]. He later confirmed a strike on an anti-aircraft facility, which he called a ‘minor attack’[19]. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, wrote that ‘America's response to Iran's rights and demands was not convincing’[19]. He was referring to Tehran's seven conditions for reopening the strait, which include the lifting of sanctions and an end to the US naval blockade[19]. Al Jazeera cited unnamed US media reports that Central Command had prepared strike plans that could begin after the elections, when three aircraft carriers would be in the region[19].

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran's parliament and its chief negotiator, wrote: ‘Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message’[3,5]. He warned: ‘If the U.S. govt betrays their public will...it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare’[3]. The supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, dismissed anyone who might ‘harbour even the slightest hope that the behaviour of the hegemonic system could change through party or factional shifts’, and CBS News reported him as saying that those expecting a change in US ‘hostility’ were ‘gravely mistaken’[3,5]. CBS News reported that the supreme leader had also warned there would be no ‘geographical limitations’ if fighting resumed[18]. In Israel, the opposition politician Yair Golan said the result showed ‘just how toxic Netanyahu has become’ among US lawmakers[5].

The new Congress inherits an unresolved dispute over who may make war. ABC News reported that the Senate had voted 14 times on resolutions to limit the president's war powers over Iran and had passed one only once, by 50 votes to 48 in June, when four Republicans joined most Democrats[20]. A resolution already passed by the House failed in the Senate by 49 to 50 on 24 September, and the administration had dismissed the June resolution as ‘poorly timed and meaningless’[20]. Under the War Powers Resolution, the president must end a use of the armed forces within 60 days of reporting it, unless Congress has declared war, given specific authorisation or extended that period by law[21].

5Moscow and Kyiv expect continuity on Ukraine

Russia's response was guarded. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said he hoped Trump could ‘continue his peace-making efforts’, and NPR reported that Moscow was ‘sincerely’ counting on him to keep trying to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine[3,4]. The deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said, in NPR's version, that ‘The approach of the activist wing of the Democratic Party towards Russia is extremely negative’[4]. CBS News reported him as adding that Moscow's foreign policy and its position on Ukraine would not change, while Al Jazeera translated his description as ‘sharply negative’[3,5].

European Union figures were more hopeful. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said she expected the new Congress to ‘increase support for Ukraine’[3]. Christel Schaldemose, a vice-president of the European Parliament, called the results ‘wild’[3]. She said she welcomed them ‘Not because everything now changes for the better, but because it could benefit the support for Ukraine’[5].

In Kyiv the mood was more restrained. Emmanuelle Chaze, a correspondent for France 24, which is owned by the French state, reported that Ukrainians did not expect a Democratic Congress to ‘change much in regards to US policy on the war with Russia, or at least not quickly’[22]. She also reported that President Volodymyr Zelensky had not yet reacted in public[22]. According to NPR, the Kyiv Independent newspaper described the result as a ‘potential boost for Ukraine’[4]. Before the vote, Representative Jim Himes, the senior Democrat on the House intelligence committee, told Breaking Defense that Democratic control could cut the time taken to process aid from ‘nine months’ to ‘nine days or nine weeks’ and force the administration to bargain over Ukraine in budget talks[23].

Himes argued that polling showed ‘a fairly massive repudiation of the president’, but put this down to living costs and the Middle East rather than Trump's policy on Russia[23]. A Reuters analysis, as reported by the Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainska Pravda, argued that Trump's softer tone towards Moscow in October reflected calculations about the midterms[24]. It noted that on 19 October Trump said ‘Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine’, and that his envoy, Steve Witkoff, called Vladimir Putin a ‘humanitarian’ on 21 October[24]. The same report cited survey evidence that around 78% of Americans believed Trump's policies were at least partly responsible for rising prices[24]. Moscow's hopes and Kyiv's caution rest on the same assumption as Merz's remark: that foreign policy stays largely in the president's hands.

6Europe weighs whether a weakened president is a safer one

Josef Braml, European director of the Trilateral Commission, argued in an opinion piece for Euronews that defeat at home could make Trump more dangerous abroad, because ‘a president weakened at home might want to stage foreign policy strength more aggressively’[25]. He pointed to the use of tariffs as political leverage, Trump's demands over Greenland, the conditional nature of military aid to Ukraine and the risk of escalation with Iran[25]. He warned that ‘a divided EU is easier to handle for a transactional US power strategy’[25]. His recommendation was that Europe should ‘become more resilient economically against US tariff pressure, more autonomous militarily within NATO and more united politically’[25].

Officials in Brussels had set low expectations before the vote. On 28 October a senior EU diplomat told Agence France-Presse: ‘We don't think the unpredictability is going to change’[26]. The agency cited a Council on Foreign Relations poll in which only 25% of Americans backed removing all tariffs on the EU, and reported that a Pentagon review of US forces in Europe, due in December, was expected to reduce American deployments[26]. After the vote, France's economy minister, Roland Lescure, asked whether Trump would accept the voters' rebuke or keep his current policies[3]. A British health minister, James Frith, said the UK-US relationship remained ‘unwavering and unchanging’[5].

A second line of argument concerns European domestic politics. In an analysis published by Al Jazeera before the vote, Catherine Fieschi of Carnegie Europe warned that a Democratic victory could breed complacency about the far right by spreading ‘the idea that these things don't mean the advent of a fascist regime’; the article reported Marine Le Pen leading presidential polling with about 34%[27]. Fieschi also warned that a weakened Trump might hurry a settlement at Ukraine's expense: ‘we could end up in a situation where Trump is basically clinching deals with Putin as fast as he can’[27]. Sánchez linked the result to his own campaign, predicting a similar outcome at Spain's election on 29 November: ‘It happened in Brazil. It just happened in the US. And it will happen soon in Spain’[3].

European public opinion forms the background to these official reactions. A European Council on Foreign Relations poll of 19,481 people in 15 European countries, carried out in May 2026, found that only 11% regarded the United States as an ally, down from 16% six months earlier and 22% in November 2024, while 50% saw it as a ‘necessary partner’[28]. Al Jazeera reported a different measure, with 31% viewing America as Europe's ‘most trustworthy ally’, down from 51% in 2024[27]. The two figures answer differently worded questions and cannot be compared directly, but both show trust falling sharply.

Uncertainties and open questions

Final results are not yet known. The Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi had not been called, and the Mississippi margin was about 1,000 votes[1]. CNBC's count of House gains was a minimum, given as at least 24 districts[2]. Most foreign reactions reached the public through news round-ups, and translations differ: Sánchez's words appear as ‘machismo’ in one version and ‘sexism’ in another, and Ryabkov's as ‘extremely negative’ or ‘sharply negative’[3,4,5]. Merz's remarks are known through two translations whose wording differs[6,11]. The claim that Central Command had prepared strikes to begin after the elections rests on unnamed US media reports cited by one outlet[19]. The war chronology and the shipping figures used here come from Wikipedia, an openly edited reference work, which describes the shipping figures as preliminary estimates[16,17]. The polling evidence comes from before the election and carries margins of error of about four percentage points; it was conducted from 8 to 12 October and records voters' stated concerns, not their votes[10]. Zelensky's own assessment was not public when Kyiv reactions were first reported[22]. Finally, it is not yet clear whether a Democratic Congress will turn its powers over spending and war into binding limits; in June the administration dismissed the Senate's war powers resolution as ‘poorly timed and meaningless’[8,20].

Conclusion

The midterm result gave foreign governments an unusual chance to say what they think of American policy, and many did. Leaders in Spain, South Africa and Norway welcomed it in political terms, while China and Japan stressed continuity[3,4,5]. Iran's leaders claimed the vote as a rejection of war, yet the supreme leader denied that it would change Washington's conduct[3,5]. Merz's warning that Trump would keep governing without Congress fits the high rate of executive orders in his second term[6,7]. Against that, the constitution gives Congress control of appropriations and the power to declare war, and the Supreme Court has already ruled that one emergency statute does not authorise tariffs[8,9]. The open question is less whether the president can still act alone than whether the new majorities will use their constitutional powers over money and war[6,8]. European analysts doubt that a weakened president will be easier to deal with, and some warn that he may become more dangerous abroad[25,26,27].

References

  1. CBS News. 2026 Senate midterm election results as Democrats win control, Schumer vows "legislative razor wire" against Trump. CBS News; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the projected Democratic Senate seat count, the uncalled Alaska and Mississippi races, Schumer's quotation and Trump's first appearance after the losses. ↩
  2. Fountain L. Democrats flip dozens of GOP seats. Republicans haven't flipped a single one. CNBC; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the counts of Senate, House, governorship and state legislative seats won from Republicans, the Kansas detail and the redistricting quotation. ↩
  3. Reals T, Shamlii A. U.S. election results, a sharp setback for Trump, draw reaction from around the world. CBS News; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the reactions of Sánchez, Ramaphosa, Støre, Burnham, Wadephul, Lescure, Kallas, Schaldemose, Peskov, Ryabkov, Ghalibaf and Mojtaba Khamenei. ↩
  4. Bartlett K. World reacts to Democrats' midterm elections victory. NPR (via KPBS); 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports NPR's translations of Sánchez and Ryabkov, Ramaphosa's second quotation, Peskov's 'sincerely', Wadephul on Congress, Mao Ning's comment and the Kyiv Independent headline. ↩
  5. Al Jazeera. 'Seismic shift': World reacts to US midterm election results. Al Jazeera; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the reactions of Kihara, Mao Ning, Schaldemose, Ghalibaf, Khamenei, Golan, Frith and Ryabkov's 'sharply negative' wording. ↩
  6. Towfigh Nia O. German chancellor expects no major shift in US president's policies despite Republican election loss. Anadolu Agency; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Merz's quotations, the setting of the SPD Economic Forum in Berlin on 4 November, and Steffen Meyer's statement. ↩
  7. The American Presidency Project. Executive Orders. University of California, Santa Barbara; 20 Oct 2026. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the count of 292 second-term executive orders as of 20 October 2026, the number range, the 166-a-year average and the first-term total of 220. ↩
  8. Legal Information Institute. U.S. Constitution, Article I. Cornell Law School. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the quoted text of the Appropriations Clause and of the powers to declare war and to raise and support armies. ↩
  9. Supreme Court of the United States. Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump. Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School; 20 Feb 2026. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the date, the six-to-three outcome and the holding that IEEPA does not authorise presidential tariffs. ↩
  10. Peoples S, Sanders L. Frustrated with Trump, voters overwhelmingly want change in Washington, an AP-NORC poll finds. PBS NewsHour (Associated Press); 15 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the AP-NORC poll findings, sample sizes, fieldwork dates and margins of error. ↩
  11. Dzheripa A. US elections: Merz says Trump will still be able to bypass Congress after defeat. LIGA.net; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Merz's lack of enthusiasm and his acknowledgement of Congress's role in budget and military planning, including US troops in Europe. ↩
  12. Jones Day. United States Supreme Court Invalidates IEEPA Tariffs. Jones Day; Feb 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 15% import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, in force from 24 February 2026. ↩
  13. The National. US midterms: Iran war and cost of living put Trump's foreign policy under pressure. The National; 20 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Reuters/Ipsos and Chicago Council figures, the rise in petrol and diesel prices since 28 February, and the quotations from Payne and Diwan. ↩
  14. U.S. Energy Information Administration. Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. U.S. Energy Information Administration; 2 Nov 2026. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the regular petrol price of $4.153 a gallon on 2 November 2026 and the year-earlier figure of $3.019. ↩
  15. Al Jazeera. Carney signals progress on Canada-US trade deal talks as midterms loom. Al Jazeera; 1 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Carney's quotation, the 50% tariff on about $20 billion of Canadian goods, Canada's retaliation and the issue's role in Michigan and Maine. ↩
  16. Wikipedia contributors. 2026 Iran war ceasefire. Wikipedia. Reference work✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the start of the war on 28 February 2026, the April ceasefire, the Islamabad Memorandum of 17 June and the resumption of fighting on 8 July. ↩
  17. Wikipedia contributors. 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Wikipedia. Reference work✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the strait's share of seaborne oil and LNG trade, the $126 Brent peak and flows at 82% of pre-war levels in October. ↩
  18. CBS News. Iran plays down hope for deal to end war after new U.S. strikes on eve of midterm elections. CBS News; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the eve-of-election strikes near Qeshm Island, Trump's quotation and Khamenei's warning about 'geographical limitations'. ↩
  19. Al Jazeera. Iran says US reply to Hormuz plan 'unconvincing'; Trump confirms strikes. Al Jazeera; 4 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Trump's 'minor attack' remark, Rezaei's statement, Iran's seven conditions and the reported Central Command strike plans. ↩
  20. Ibssa L, Pecorin A. Senate again fails to adopt Iran War Powers Resolution despite growing criticism. ABC News; 24 Sept 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 14 Senate votes, the single 50-48 passage in June, the 49-50 defeat on 24 September and the administration's dismissal of the June vote. ↩
  21. Legal Information Institute. 50 U.S. Code § 1544 - Congressional action. Cornell Law School. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the War Powers Resolution's 60-day limit and its exceptions. ↩
  22. Chaze E. Ukrainian's 'not expecting drastic change in US policy' after midterms. France 24; 4 Nov 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the report of Ukrainian expectations and the fact that Zelensky had not yet reacted in public. ↩
  23. Martin T. Democratic midterm gains could speed US military aid to Ukraine, lawmaker says. Breaking Defense; 13 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Himes's statements on the speed of Ukraine aid, budget bargaining and the 'repudiation' of the president. ↩
  24. Ukrainska Pravda. Trump's midterm election calculations are complicating US policy on Ukraine – Reuters. Ukrainska Pravda; 23 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Reuters argument, Trump's 19 October quotation, Witkoff's 21 October remark and the 78% figure. ↩
  25. Braml J. After US midterms, a weakened Trump may pose a greater threat to Europe. Euronews; 4 Nov 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Braml's argument and quotations on the risks a weakened Trump poses to Europe and his recommendations. ↩
  26. Agence France-Presse. Trump tamed after US midterms? Europe doubts it. Eyewitness News (EWN); 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the EU diplomat's quotation, the Council on Foreign Relations tariff poll figure and the expected Pentagon review. ↩
  27. Psaropoulos JT. Why a Democratic win in US midterms could adversely affect Europe. Al Jazeera; 29 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Fieschi's warnings, the reported 34% polling for Le Pen's campaign and the 31% 'most trustworthy ally' figure. ↩
  28. CBS News. Just 1 in 10 Europeans now view the U.S. as an ally, according to new poll: "Collapse in faith". CBS News; 10 Jun 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the ECFR poll's sample, fieldwork date, country coverage and its 11%, 16%, 22% and 50% figures. ↩