Americans vote in midterm elections seen as a test of Trump and of the institutions around him

Abstract

Voters across the United States went to the polls on 3 November 2026 to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators^[1]. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to win majorities in both chambers, which President Donald Trump's Republican Party currently controls^[1,2]. A Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 31%, the lowest of either of his terms, with 47% of registered voters preferring an unnamed Democrat for Congress and 35% an unnamed Republican^[3]. In midterms from 1946 to 2014, the parties of presidents with approval below 50% lost an average of 37 House seats, against 14 for others^[4]. Republicans had hoped to gain at least 13 seats through mid-decade redistricting, though Al Jazeera reports that the gain could be much smaller^[5]. The Brennan Center counted at least 34 federal district court decisions blocking Trump administration election initiatives, and the Supreme Court rejected the administration's request over about 20,000 disputed California ballots^[2,6,7]. France 24 describes the vote as a referendum on Trump's second term^[2]. The result may take days to establish, and polls differ on the level of Trump's approval, from 31% in the Reuters/Ipsos poll to 38% in the NBC News average^[3,8,9].

Key points

• Democrats need a net gain of three House seats and four Senate seats to win majorities in both chambers^[1].
• In midterms from 1946 to 2014, parties of presidents with approval below 50% lost an average of 37 House seats, against 14 above that level^[4].
• A Reuters/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 31%, and 47% of registered voters favoured an unnamed Democrat against 35% for a Republican^[3].
• Moody's Analytics estimated that the Iran war had cost US consumers about 265 billion dollars, roughly 2,000 dollars for the average household^[10].
• The Brennan Center counted at least 34 federal district court decisions that blocked Trump administration initiatives on elections^[6].
• On 2 November the Supreme Court rejected the administration's request over disputed California ballots, the fourth consecutive court defeat for the effort^[7].

References

1. Al Jazeera Staff. What time do polls open and close in the US midterm elections 2026?. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the seats at stake, the 36 governors' races, the 230 million eligible voters and the net gains Democrats need. ↩
2. France 24. Midterms live: US voters head to polls to determine control of Congress for Trump's remaining term. France 24; 3 Nov 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the referendum framing, the seats needed, the three post-war double flips, Richard Johnson's quote, the 20,000 ballots, the prediction of investigations and the report on Haley Stevens. ↩
3. Reuters. Trump approval falls to record low of 31% as midterms near, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds. GV Wire (Reuters); 19 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the 31% approval figure, the poll's method, sample sizes and margin of error, and the 47% to 35% generic ballot result. ↩
4. Jones JM. Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents. Gallup; 12 Sept 2018. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the average House losses of 37 seats for presidents below 50% approval and 14 for those above, from 1946 to 2014. ↩
5. Stepansky J. US midterms present a test for Republican redistricting in Texas and beyond. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the 35 million voters in redrawn seats, the list of redistricting states, the 13-seat Republican hope and the Houston primary between Al Green and Christian Menefee. ↩
6. Lam J, Steele S. Here's What 34 Courts Have Said About the Trump Administration's Attempts to Take Over Elections. Brennan Center for Justice; 20 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the count of 34 decisions, their breakdown, the judges' appointing presidents and the two executive orders. ↩
7. Associated Press. Supreme Court rejects Trump administration push to set aside thousands of California ballots. 96.5 KRMG (Associated Press); 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the Supreme Court's 2 November rejection with no public dissent, the fourth defeat, the 'fair statement' admission and the Justice Department's position on the list. ↩
8. Melimopoulos E, Associated Press. When will we know the US midterm election results?. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the poll closing times, the states with slower counts, the eight days needed in 2024 and the warning that results may take days. ↩
9. Sharp A. Trump's Closing Midterm Message. Foreign Policy; 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 38% NBC News average, the link to the Iran war and the Canada tariff dispute, and Trump's 'apple pie' and 'jihadist' remarks. ↩
10. Egan M. The Iran war is costing American households $2,000 each, financial research firm estimates. East Idaho News (CNN); 14 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the Moody's Analytics estimates of 265 billion dollars and about 2,000 dollars per household, their breakdown, petrol prices, method and Zandi's quote. ↩

A narrowly divided Congress faces the voters

Voters across the United States went to the polls on Tuesday 3 November 2026 to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 members of the Senate^[1]. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to win majorities in both chambers, which Trump's Republican Party currently controls^[1,2].

Agence France-Presse reported that a record 54 million people had voted before polling day and that the contests had drawn about 11 billion US dollars in advertising^[3]. France 24 describes the vote as a referendum on Trump's second term, and notes that since the Second World War control of both chambers has changed hands in the same midterm election only three times, in 1946, 1994 and 2006^[2]. The result may not be known quickly: Alaska, California, Arizona, Nevada, Maine and Washington need extra time, and in 2024 it took eight days to establish which party controlled the House^[4].

An unpopular president and the historical pattern

John Woolley of the American Presidency Project calculated that between 1934 and 2014 the president's party lost an average of 27 House seats and four Senate seats at midterms^[5]. Gallup's Jeffrey Jones showed that in midterms from 1946 to 2014 the parties of presidents with job approval below 50% lost an average of 37 House seats, against 14 for presidents above that level^[6].

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 1,679 adults conducted to 19 October put Trump's approval at 31%, the lowest of either of his terms^[7]. Among 1,279 registered voters in that poll, 47% said they would vote for an unnamed Democrat for Congress and 35% for an unnamed Republican, the widest gap of the election cycle^[7]. A Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll put his approval at 33%^[8]. NBC News's polling average stood at 38%^[9]. Decision Desk HQ projected Democrats winning the Senate by 52 seats to 48 and the House by 241 seats to 194^[3].

War and prices have shaped the mood. The United States and Israel launched a war on Iran on 28 February 2026, and the share of Americans who disapprove of Trump has grown steadily since then as petrol and diesel prices rose^[8]. Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics estimated that the war had cost US consumers about 265 billion dollars, roughly 2,000 dollars for the average household, with petrol averaging 4.34 dollars a gallon against 2.98 dollars before the conflict^[10]. Trump's own closing argument focused mostly on his building projects in the capital rather than on prices or the war^[3,11].

Redrawn districts and a narrower Voting Rights Act

Many voters are choosing representatives in districts drawn since the last election. In Texas, Trump pushed the state to redraw its congressional map, with the aim of adding as many as five Republican seats, and on 27 April 2026 the Supreme Court allowed the map to be used, over three dissents^[12]. California voters approved Proposition 50 in November 2025, allowing a map that could give Democrats five more seats, and on 4 February 2026 the Supreme Court declined to block it^[13]. In Virginia, the state Supreme Court voided, by four votes to three, a redistricting amendment that voters had approved by 52% to 48%^[14]. Al Jazeera estimates that about 35 million voters are casting ballots in newly redistricted seats, and that Republicans had hoped to gain at least 13 seats nationally, though the actual gain could be much smaller^[15].

The law also changed. On 29 April 2026 the Supreme Court decided Louisiana v. Callais, with Justice Samuel Alito writing for the majority^[16]. The Court held that Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is violated 'only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race'^[17]. The Congressional Research Service notes that challengers must now prove present-day intentional discrimination and that Congress could respond by legislation^[17].

Federal pressure on state election officials meets the courts

A second dispute concerns how the vote is run. In a review dated 20 October, the Brennan Center for Justice counted at least 34 federal district court decisions that had temporarily or permanently blocked Trump administration initiatives on elections^[18].

California became the main test. On 15 October the Justice Department told state officials to segregate mail-in ballots until their status could be determined, and not to provide a ballot to anyone who had not yet received it, for people the federal government believed were likely non-citizens^[19]. The dispute concerned about 20,000 postal ballots^[2,20]. An analysis by the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights, a plaintiff in the litigation, and UCLA's Voting Rights Project found that more than 40% of the names did not appear in California's voter file^[21]. In court a federal prosecutor conceded that 'there may be errors on the list'^[22]. The Justice Department flagged the people on its list as likely non-citizens, and a federal prosecutor expressed high confidence that they were not entitled to vote^[20]. On 2 November Chief Judge James Boasberg found that the Executive Branch had likely violated the Constitution's Elections Clause, and the same day the Supreme Court rejected the administration's emergency request without explanation and without public dissent, the fourth consecutive court defeat for the effort^[20,22].

Rival readings of the stakes and what remains uncertain

In Texas, a Quantus Insights poll of 1,221 likely voters gave the Republican Ken Paxton 48.7% and the Democrat James Talarico 47.6%, a gap inside the poll's margin of error of 3.2 points^[23]. AFP noted that winning only the House would give Democrats voting power over the federal budget and control of committees able to investigate alleged corruption under Trump, while a Democratic Senate could block his lifetime appointments to the courts^[3]. Trump told a podcast: 'If we didn't win, I veto everything'^[3]. Said Arikat, writing in Al Jazeera, argues that the election tests whether constitutional checks can restrain a president, whether election officials can withstand political pressure and whether the government will respect the voters' verdict^[24].

Much remains uncertain. Counting may take days in several states^[4]. Reuters/Ipsos put Trump's approval at 31%, while the NBC News average stood at 38%^[7,9]. The estimate of the war's cost to households comes from Moody's Analytics, as reported by CNN^[10]. The accuracy of the Justice Department's list remains disputed^[20,21]. Republicans hoped to gain at least 13 seats through redistricting, but Al Jazeera suggests the gain may be far smaller^[15].

References

1. Al Jazeera Staff. What time do polls open and close in the US midterm elections 2026?. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the seats at stake, the 36 governors' races, the 230 million eligible voters and the net gains Democrats need. ↩
2. France 24. Midterms live: US voters head to polls to determine control of Congress for Trump's remaining term. France 24; 3 Nov 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the referendum framing, the seats needed, the three post-war double flips, Richard Johnson's quote, the 20,000 ballots, the prediction of investigations and the report on Haley Stevens. ↩
3. Kemp D, Taggart F. Trump makes final US midterm pitch at troubled Reflecting Pool. RNZ (Agence France-Presse); 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 54 million early votes, the 11 billion dollar advertising figure, Musk's donations, Warnock's quote, the Decision Desk HQ forecast, Trump's 'most important midterm' and veto remarks, and the consequences of Democratic control. ↩
4. Melimopoulos E, Associated Press. When will we know the US midterm election results?. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the poll closing times, the states with slower counts, the eight days needed in 2024 and the warning that results may take days. ↩
5. Woolley JT. Presidents and Midterm Elections: What Historical Data Suggest about 2018. The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara; 2018. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the average midterm losses of 27 House and four Senate seats from 1934 to 2014. ↩
6. Jones JM. Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents. Gallup; 12 Sept 2018. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the average House losses of 37 seats for presidents below 50% approval and 14 for those above, from 1946 to 2014. ↩
7. Reuters. Trump approval falls to record low of 31% as midterms near, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds. GV Wire (Reuters); 19 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the 31% approval figure, the poll's method, sample sizes and margin of error, and the 47% to 35% generic ballot result. ↩
8. Al Jazeera Staff, Reuters. Trump approval hits record-low 31 percent, polls show Republican struggles. Al Jazeera; 19 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos 33% figure, the NBC 'wrong track' finding and the 28 February start of the Iran war and its effect on fuel prices. ↩
9. Sharp A. Trump's Closing Midterm Message. Foreign Policy; 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 38% NBC News average, the link to the Iran war and the Canada tariff dispute, and Trump's 'apple pie' and 'jihadist' remarks. ↩
10. Egan M. The Iran war is costing American households $2,000 each, financial research firm estimates. East Idaho News (CNN); 14 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the Moody's Analytics estimates of 265 billion dollars and about 2,000 dollars per household, their breakdown, petrol prices, method and Zandi's quote. ↩
11. Price ML, Kim SM. Trump spends the day before midterm Election Day promoting his Reflecting Pool makeover. ABC7 New York (Associated Press); 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the focus of Trump's closing remarks on the Reflecting Pool and Vance's economic campaigning in New York and Ohio. ↩
12. Klibanoff E. U.S. Supreme Court upholds Texas' newly redrawn congressional map. KLTV (The Texas Tribune); 27 Apr 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Trump's push for the Texas redraw, the aim of five Republican seats, Judge Brown's finding and the Supreme Court ruling of 27 April 2026 with three dissents. ↩
13. Quinn M. Supreme Court lets California use new congressional map in midterms, rejecting bid to block it. CBS News; 4 Feb 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Proposition 50 vote, the five-seat expectation, Judge Staton's quote and the Supreme Court's refusal on 4 February 2026 to block the map. ↩
14. Kaplow L. Court rejects Virginia redistricting in a blow to Democrats' counter to Trump, GOP. WAMC (NPR); 8 May 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the description of a mid-decade redistricting race, the 52% to 48% Virginia vote, the 4-3 ruling of 8 May, the order to keep the 2022 to 2024 map and the potential four-seat Democratic gain. ↩
15. Stepansky J. US midterms present a test for Republican redistricting in Texas and beyond. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the 35 million voters in redrawn seats, the list of redistricting states, the 13-seat Republican hope and the Houston primary between Al Green and Christian Menefee. ↩
16. Supreme Court of the United States. Docket No. 24-109, Louisiana v. Callais. Supreme Court of the United States; 29 Apr 2026. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 29 April 2026 decision date, Justice Alito's majority opinion and Justice Kagan's dissent joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson. ↩
17. Congressional Research Service. Congressional Redistricting: High Court Narrows Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais. Congressional Research Service; 14 May 2026. Official report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Callais holding, the new intent standard for Section 2, the legislatures removing majority-minority districts and the possible response from Congress. ↩
18. Lam J, Steele S. Here's What 34 Courts Have Said About the Trump Administration's Attempts to Take Over Elections. Brennan Center for Justice; 20 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the count of 34 decisions, their breakdown, the judges' appointing presidents and the two executive orders. ↩
19. Riddle S, Tucker E. Justice Department threatens California with legal action over claim of noncitizens on voter rolls. ABC30 (Associated Press); 15 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 13 October letter to Shirley Weber, its demands, McCotter's warning and Bonta's quote. ↩
20. Associated Press. Supreme Court rejects Trump administration push to set aside thousands of California ballots. 96.5 KRMG (Associated Press); 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the Supreme Court's 2 November rejection with no public dissent, the fourth defeat, the 'fair statement' admission and the Justice Department's position on the list. ↩
21. Riccardi N. Justice Department urges sanctions for database analysis critical of its noncitizen voting claims. PBS NewsHour (Associated Press); 1 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the CHIRLA and UCLA findings on the list and the Justice Department's 'political grandstanding' response and call for sanctions. ↩
22. Associated Press. Judge orders Trump administration to stop demanding that California officials set aside 20k ballots. The Boston Globe; 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the prosecutor's admission of errors, Judge Carter's warning, the 2-1 appeals ruling and Judge Boasberg's Elections Clause finding. ↩
23. Barker A. Paxton slips past Talarico in latest poll as Senate race enters final days. FOX 26 Houston; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the Quantus Insights Texas Senate poll figures, field dates, sample size and margin of error. ↩
24. Arikat S. The US midterms will test the limits of Trump's power. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Arikat's argument about institutional tests, his account of Trump's response to the 2020 election and his quoted conclusion. ↩

Abstract

1A narrowly divided Congress goes to the voters

Voters across the United States went to the polls on Tuesday 3 November 2026 to elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 members of the Senate^[1]. Voters in 36 states are also electing governors, and Al Jazeera puts the number of eligible voters at more than 230 million^[1]. Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to win majorities in both chambers, which President Donald Trump's Republican Party currently controls^[1,2]. The official tally kept by the House Press Gallery lists 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies, with the caveat that the page is updated only once members' departures are read on the House floor^[10]. In the Senate, the Congressional Research Service records 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats^[11].

The campaign has been large by any measure. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that a record 54 million people had cast ballots before polling day, that the contests had drawn about 11 billion US dollars in advertising, and that Elon Musk, the Trump ally who led the cost-cutting drive known as DOGE, had given nearly half a billion dollars to help elect Republicans^[12]. According to the same report, the Democratic senator Raphael Warnock told CNN that his party's mood was 'nauseously optimistic'^[12].

The result may not be known quickly. Polls close first in Indiana and Kentucky at 6pm Eastern time (23:00 GMT) and last in Alaska's western Aleutian Islands at 1am Eastern time on Wednesday^[8]. Al Jazeera and the Associated Press note that Alaska, California, Arizona, Nevada, Maine and Washington need extra time because of postal ballots, signature verification or ranked-choice voting, and that in 2024 it took eight days to establish which party controlled the House^[8]. They warn that it might not be clear for days whether Republicans have kept control of Congress^[8].

France 24 describes the vote as a referendum on Trump's second term, and notes that since the Second World War control of both chambers has changed hands in the same midterm election only three times, in 1946, 1994 and 2006^[2]. Said Arikat, a Washington-based journalist writing in Al Jazeera's opinion pages, argues that more than party control is at stake^[13]. In his view the election tests whether constitutional checks can restrain a president, whether election officials can withstand political pressure and whether the government will respect the voters' verdict^[13].

2Historical patterns and the polling evidence on an unpopular president

Midterm elections usually go badly for the party that holds the White House. John Woolley of the American Presidency Project calculated that between 1934 and 2014 the president's party lost an average of 27 House seats and four Senate seats at midterms^[14]. Gallup's Jeffrey Jones showed that the size of the loss tracks presidential popularity: in midterms from 1946 to 2014, the parties of presidents with job approval below 50% lost an average of 37 House seats, against 14 for presidents above that level^[4]. Both analyses were published ahead of the 2018 midterms^[4,14]. Because each rests on fewer than two dozen elections, they describe tendencies rather than firm rules.

Trump's ratings are well below the 50% line that Gallup used. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted online over four days to 19 October among 1,679 adults put his approval at 31%, the lowest of either of his terms, with a margin of error of about two percentage points^[3]. Among the 1,279 registered voters in that poll, 47% said they would vote for an unnamed Democrat for Congress and 35% for an unnamed Republican, a 12-point gap that was the widest of the election cycle^[3]. A Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll put Trump's approval at 33%, and an NBC poll found that 71% of Americans thought the country was on the 'wrong track'^[15]. Foreign Policy reported that NBC News's polling average, which pools many surveys, stood at 38%^[9].

The spread between 31% and 38% is not necessarily a contradiction. Individual polls differ in whether they sample all adults, registered voters or likely voters, in how they reach respondents and in how they weight results, while an average smooths out the swings of single surveys. Each 'record low' therefore refers to a pollster's own series, not to a single agreed measure. National figures also measure national opinion, whereas Congress is chosen seat by seat and state by state.

Analysts nonetheless read the direction of the figures as clear. France 24 quoted Richard Johnson, a senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, as saying that 'No American president in recent memory has been as unpopular as Donald Trump is right now', and reported that he described Trump as a liability for Republican candidates^[2]. AFP reported that the forecaster Decision Desk HQ projected Democrats winning the Senate by 52 seats to 48 and the House by 241 seats to 194^[12]. Such projections are model estimates built largely on polling, and they carry the same uncertainties as the polls they rely on.

3War costs, prices and the parties' closing arguments

War abroad has shaped how voters feel about the economy. The United States and Israel launched a war on Iran on 28 February 2026, and Al Jazeera and Reuters report that the share of Americans who disapprove of Trump has grown steadily since then as petrol and diesel prices rose^[15]. Foreign Policy links the Democrats' advantage to economic discontent tied both to the Iran war and to Trump's tariff dispute with Canada^[9].

An estimate of the war's cost to households comes from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, as reported by CNN on 14 October. He estimated that the war had cost US consumers about 265 billion dollars since late February, or roughly 2,000 dollars for the average household^[16]. About 1,100 dollars of that came from higher energy costs and about 360 dollars from higher borrowing costs, with petrol averaging 4.34 dollars a gallon nationally, against 2.98 dollars before the conflict^[16]. The estimate combined energy price rises linked to disruption in the Strait of Hormuz with higher borrowing costs after inflation prompted Federal Reserve rate increases^[16]. 'Many Americans have rightly connected the dots between the Iran War and the painfully high cost of living and thus want the war to end,' Zandi said^[16]. The figure is a single private-sector estimate, not an official statistic or a peer-reviewed study, and any such calculation depends on assumptions about what prices would have done without the war.

Democrats have built their campaign on that discontent. At a rally in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, on 26 July, the House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries launched an agenda called 'Fighting for an Affordable America'^[17]. 'When you work hard and play by the rules, you should be able to live a middle-class life,' he said, promising to bring down the cost of groceries, housing, healthcare and fuel if Democrats won the House^[17].

Republicans have bet on the president himself. In January, Fox News quoted the Republican National Committee chair, Joe Gruters, as saying 'I think the President of the United States is our secret weapon', and adding that 'there's nobody that can energize our base more than President Trump'^[18]. According to the Associated Press and AFP, Trump's own closing argument on 2 November, at the renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, focused mostly on his building projects in the capital rather than on prices or the war^[12,19]. He called the vote 'the most important midterm I believe in our lifetime' and said 'We have to keep our Congress strong, free, a little bit of apple pie'^[9,12]. Vice-President JD Vance, by contrast, made campaign stops in New York and Ohio focused on the economy^[19].

4Redrawn districts and a narrower Voting Rights Act

Many voters are choosing representatives in districts drawn since the last election^[20,21]. NPR reported that Trump prompted a mid-decade redistricting race to try to keep Republican control of the House^[22]. In Texas, Trump pushed the state to redraw its congressional map to shore up the Republicans' narrow House majority, with the aim of adding as many as five Republican seats^[20]. A federal district judge, Jeff Brown, found in a 160-page opinion 'substantial evidence' that the map was a racial gerrymander, but on 27 April 2026 the Supreme Court allowed it to be used, over the dissent of Justices Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor and Ketanji Brown Jackson^[20].

California responded. In November 2025 its voters approved Proposition 50, with more than seven million votes in favour, allowing the Democratic-controlled legislature to draw a map that could give Democrats five more seats^[21]. A three-judge federal panel found the motive was partisan rather than racial, Judge Josephine Staton writing that 'Proposition 50 was exactly what it was billed as: a political gerrymander designed to flip five Republican-held seats', and on 4 February 2026 the Supreme Court declined to block the map, with no noted dissents^[21]. In Virginia, voters approved a redistricting amendment by 52% to 48% in April, but the state Supreme Court voided it by four votes to three on 8 May for procedural violations and ordered the state to keep its 2022 to 2024 map; NPR reported that the rejected plan could have helped Democrats gain four seats^[22].

Al Jazeera estimates that about 35 million voters are casting ballots in newly redistricted seats^[5]. It lists Republican redraws in Missouri, North Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida and Ohio, and a court-ordered map in Utah that favoured Democrats^[5]. Republicans had hoped to gain at least 13 seats nationally, though Al Jazeera reports that the actual gain could be much smaller^[5]. In Houston, the new lines forced the Democratic congressman Al Green into a primary against Christian Menefee, which Green lost, and the city lost one of its Black representatives^[5].

The law also changed. On 29 April 2026 the Supreme Court decided Louisiana v. Callais, with Justice Samuel Alito writing for the majority and Justice Kagan dissenting, joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson^[23]. According to the Congressional Research Service, the Court held that Louisiana had engaged in an 'unconstitutional racial gerrymander' by creating a second majority-minority district to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965^[24]. It ruled that Section 2 is violated 'only when the evidence supports a strong inference that the State intentionally drew its districts to afford minority voters less opportunity because of their race'^[24]. The CRS notes that challengers must now prove present-day intentional discrimination, that some legislatures have already begun eliminating majority-minority districts, and that Congress could respond by legislation^[24].

5Federal pressure on state election officials meets the courts

A second dispute concerns how the vote is run. In a review dated 20 October, the Brennan Center for Justice counted at least 34 federal district court decisions that had temporarily or permanently blocked Trump administration initiatives on elections^[6]. Eight were orders in cases challenging two executive orders: one from March 2025 requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register, and one from March 2026 directing the Postal Service not to deliver mail ballots to voters missing from federal lists^[6]. The other 26 dismissed Justice Department demands for statewide voter registration lists, and of the judges involved, 22 were appointed by Democratic presidents and 12 by Republicans, including eight by Trump^[6]. The report's title calls these measures attempts to take over elections^[6]. The count therefore comes from a critic of the policies, although each ruling it lists is a public court record that can be checked.

California became the main test. On 15 October the Justice Department wrote to the state's secretary of state, Shirley Weber, telling officials to 'segregate their mail-in ballots until their status can be determined, and to not provide a ballot to anyone who has not yet received it', for people the federal government believed were likely non-citizens^[25]. The letter, signed by the acting deputy attorney general Trent McCotter, warned that without compliance 'the United States will have no choice but to seek emergency relief'^[25]. The dispute concerned about 20,000 postal ballots from people federal officials called 'likely' non-citizens^[2,7]. California's attorney general, Rob Bonta, rejected the demand as part of a pattern of 'absolutely false conspiracy theories that there is widespread voter fraud when there is not'^[25].

The accuracy of the list became the central factual question. An analysis by the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights (CHIRLA), a plaintiff in the litigation, and UCLA's Voting Rights Project found that more than 40% of the names did not appear in California's voter file, and identified 22 people who had probably become naturalised citizens^[26]. The Justice Department called the report 'political grandstanding' and urged sanctions over it^[26]. Yet in court a federal prosecutor conceded that 'there may be errors on the list', and a department lawyer, asked about a high error rate, replied 'That's a fair statement'^[7,27].

District Judge David O. Carter warned that segregating the ballots would 'wreak havoc', and a 2-1 appeals panel, with judges appointed by both Trump and Joe Biden in the majority, upheld his order^[27]. On 2 November Chief Judge James Boasberg found that 'The Executive Branch has likely violated the Constitution's Elections Clause, which commits authority over election rules to the states and Congress alone'^[27]. The same day, hours before polling day, the Supreme Court rejected the administration's emergency request without explanation and without public dissent, the fourth consecutive court defeat for the effort^[7].

6Tight Senate contests and rival readings of the stakes

Control of the Senate may turn on a few states. In Texas, a Quantus Insights poll of 1,221 likely voters conducted from 26 to 28 October gave the Republican Ken Paxton 48.7% and the Democrat James Talarico 47.6%, a gap well inside the poll's margin of error of 3.2 points^[28]. In Michigan, the progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed won his party's primary in August by about 15,000 votes and faces the Republican Mike Rogers, who lost the state's 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by fewer than 20,000 votes^[29]. Analysts have called the Michigan seat a potential tipping point for Senate control^[29]. In his closing speech Trump said 'We're not looking to have a jihadist be in our Senate', which Foreign Policy described as a thinly veiled reference to El-Sayed^[9].

The president has also indicated how he would govern with a hostile Congress. AFP reported that he told the New York Post's Pod Force One podcast: 'If we didn't win, I veto everything'^[12]. Gruters, for his part, has argued that the Republicans' task is to 'make sure we turn our voters out'^[18]. In the California litigation, the Justice Department flagged the people on its list as likely non-citizens, and a federal prosecutor expressed high confidence that they were not entitled to vote^[7].

Democrats and many observers stress what a change of control would allow. AFP noted that winning only the House would give Democrats voting power over the federal budget and control of committees able to investigate alleged corruption under Trump, while a Democratic Senate could block his lifetime appointments to the courts, including the Supreme Court^[12]. France 24 predicted that if Republicans lost Congress, the rest of Trump's term would likely be consumed by Democratic-led investigations into his administration and business dealings, and possibly another impeachment^[2].

A third reading treats the vote as a test of institutions rather than parties. Arikat recalls Trump's response to the 2020 election, including his challenges to the result, his fraud allegations, his pressure on Georgia officials and the attack on the Capitol on 6 January 2021^[13]. 'No president stands above the law, no party owns the electoral process, and no exercise of political power is beyond accountability,' he writes^[13]. That is an argument made in an opinion column, and the record of the courts so far shows the institutions he names being tested rather than overwhelmed.

Uncertainties and open questions

Conclusion

The arithmetic favours the opposition. Democrats need net gains of only three House seats and four Senate seats^[1]. Historically, the parties of presidents with approval below 50% have lost an average of 37 House seats^[4], and one major poll has put Trump's approval as low as 31%^[3]. Against that, the Texas map was redrawn to add Republican seats^[20], several other states redrew their districts in the Republicans' favour^[5], and the Texas Senate contest is within the polling margin of error^[28]. The election has also tested how voting is run. District courts have blocked federal election initiatives in at least 34 decisions^[6], and the Supreme Court refused to let the administration set aside the disputed California ballots^[7]. Whether that pattern holds through counting and certification, and how a president who has said he would veto a hostile Congress's legislation governs afterwards, are questions the evidence cannot yet answer^[12].

References

1. Al Jazeera Staff. What time do polls open and close in the US midterm elections 2026?. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the seats at stake, the 36 governors' races, the 230 million eligible voters and the net gains Democrats need. ↩
2. France 24. Midterms live: US voters head to polls to determine control of Congress for Trump's remaining term. France 24; 3 Nov 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the referendum framing, the seats needed, the three post-war double flips, Richard Johnson's quote, the 20,000 ballots, the prediction of investigations and the report on Haley Stevens. ↩
3. Reuters. Trump approval falls to record low of 31% as midterms near, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds. GV Wire (Reuters); 19 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the 31% approval figure, the poll's method, sample sizes and margin of error, and the 47% to 35% generic ballot result. ↩
4. Jones JM. Midterm Seat Loss Averages 37 for Unpopular Presidents. Gallup; 12 Sept 2018. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the average House losses of 37 seats for presidents below 50% approval and 14 for those above, from 1946 to 2014. ↩
5. Stepansky J. US midterms present a test for Republican redistricting in Texas and beyond. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the 35 million voters in redrawn seats, the list of redistricting states, the 13-seat Republican hope and the Houston primary between Al Green and Christian Menefee. ↩
6. Lam J, Steele S. Here's What 34 Courts Have Said About the Trump Administration's Attempts to Take Over Elections. Brennan Center for Justice; 20 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the count of 34 decisions, their breakdown, the judges' appointing presidents and the two executive orders. ↩
7. Associated Press. Supreme Court rejects Trump administration push to set aside thousands of California ballots. 96.5 KRMG (Associated Press); 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the Supreme Court's 2 November rejection with no public dissent, the fourth defeat, the 'fair statement' admission and the Justice Department's position on the list. ↩
8. Melimopoulos E, Associated Press. When will we know the US midterm election results?. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the poll closing times, the states with slower counts, the eight days needed in 2024 and the warning that results may take days. ↩
9. Sharp A. Trump's Closing Midterm Message. Foreign Policy; 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 38% NBC News average, the link to the Iran war and the Canada tariff dispute, and Trump's 'apple pie' and 'jihadist' remarks. ↩
10. House Press Gallery. Party Breakdown. US House of Representatives Press Gallery. Primary data✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the current House composition of 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent and two vacancies, and the update caveat. ↩
11. Congressional Research Service. Membership of the 119th Congress: A Profile. Congressional Research Service; 4 Aug 2025. Official report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Senate composition of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. ↩
12. Kemp D, Taggart F. Trump makes final US midterm pitch at troubled Reflecting Pool. RNZ (Agence France-Presse); 3 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 54 million early votes, the 11 billion dollar advertising figure, Musk's donations, Warnock's quote, the Decision Desk HQ forecast, Trump's 'most important midterm' and veto remarks, and the consequences of Democratic control. ↩
13. Arikat S. The US midterms will test the limits of Trump's power. Al Jazeera; 3 Nov 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Arikat's argument about institutional tests, his account of Trump's response to the 2020 election and his quoted conclusion. ↩
14. Woolley JT. Presidents and Midterm Elections: What Historical Data Suggest about 2018. The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara; 2018. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the average midterm losses of 27 House and four Senate seats from 1934 to 2014. ↩
15. Al Jazeera Staff, Reuters. Trump approval hits record-low 31 percent, polls show Republican struggles. Al Jazeera; 19 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos 33% figure, the NBC 'wrong track' finding and the 28 February start of the Iran war and its effect on fuel prices. ↩
16. Egan M. The Iran war is costing American households $2,000 each, financial research firm estimates. East Idaho News (CNN); 14 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the Moody's Analytics estimates of 265 billion dollars and about 2,000 dollars per household, their breakdown, petrol prices, method and Zandi's quote. ↩
17. Khandaker T. Hakeem Jeffries puts affordability at centre of Democrats' midterm campaign. Al Jazeera; 27 Jul 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the launch of the 'Fighting for an Affordable America' agenda in Bethlehem on 26 July, Jeffries' quote and his pledges. ↩
18. Steinhauser P. RNC chair bets on 'secret weapon' to defy midterm history, protect GOP majorities. Fox News; 16 Jan 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Joe Gruters' 'secret weapon', energise-the-base and turnout quotes. ↩
19. Price ML, Kim SM. Trump spends the day before midterm Election Day promoting his Reflecting Pool makeover. ABC7 New York (Associated Press); 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the focus of Trump's closing remarks on the Reflecting Pool and Vance's economic campaigning in New York and Ohio. ↩
20. Klibanoff E. U.S. Supreme Court upholds Texas' newly redrawn congressional map. KLTV (The Texas Tribune); 27 Apr 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Trump's push for the Texas redraw, the aim of five Republican seats, Judge Brown's finding and the Supreme Court ruling of 27 April 2026 with three dissents. ↩
21. Quinn M. Supreme Court lets California use new congressional map in midterms, rejecting bid to block it. CBS News; 4 Feb 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Proposition 50 vote, the five-seat expectation, Judge Staton's quote and the Supreme Court's refusal on 4 February 2026 to block the map. ↩
22. Kaplow L. Court rejects Virginia redistricting in a blow to Democrats' counter to Trump, GOP. WAMC (NPR); 8 May 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the description of a mid-decade redistricting race, the 52% to 48% Virginia vote, the 4-3 ruling of 8 May, the order to keep the 2022 to 2024 map and the potential four-seat Democratic gain. ↩
23. Supreme Court of the United States. Docket No. 24-109, Louisiana v. Callais. Supreme Court of the United States; 29 Apr 2026. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 29 April 2026 decision date, Justice Alito's majority opinion and Justice Kagan's dissent joined by Justices Sotomayor and Jackson. ↩
24. Congressional Research Service. Congressional Redistricting: High Court Narrows Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais. Congressional Research Service; 14 May 2026. Official report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Callais holding, the new intent standard for Section 2, the legislatures removing majority-minority districts and the possible response from Congress. ↩
25. Riddle S, Tucker E. Justice Department threatens California with legal action over claim of noncitizens on voter rolls. ABC30 (Associated Press); 15 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 13 October letter to Shirley Weber, its demands, McCotter's warning and Bonta's quote. ↩
26. Riccardi N. Justice Department urges sanctions for database analysis critical of its noncitizen voting claims. PBS NewsHour (Associated Press); 1 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the CHIRLA and UCLA findings on the list and the Justice Department's 'political grandstanding' response and call for sanctions. ↩
27. Associated Press. Judge orders Trump administration to stop demanding that California officials set aside 20k ballots. The Boston Globe; 2 Nov 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the prosecutor's admission of errors, Judge Carter's warning, the 2-1 appeals ruling and Judge Boasberg's Elections Clause finding. ↩
28. Barker A. Paxton slips past Talarico in latest poll as Senate race enters final days. FOX 26 Houston; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the Quantus Insights Texas Senate poll figures, field dates, sample size and margin of error. ↩
29. Assaf C, Cotton M. Abdul El-Sayed wins close Michigan Democratic Senate primary. 13 ABC (Gray DC); 5 Aug 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports El-Sayed's primary margin, Rogers' 2024 result, the 'tipping point' assessment and Stevens' endorsement of El-Sayed when she conceded. ↩