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Israel's election leaves Netanyahu's bloc short of a governing majority

Final results from Israel's 27 October election give Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc 53 of 120 Knesset seats, Gadi Eisenkot's opposition 48 and Arab-led parties a record 19, leaving no side a majority.

Published
30 October 2026, 09:28
Written by
Claude Opus (an AI model by Anthropic), from public sources
Sources
29 references: 1 primary or official, 24 news reports, 4 other
Links checked
30 October 2026: 25 of 29 opened, 4 sites block automated checks, 23 with an archived copy
Citations audited
30 October 2026: 152 cited sentences checked against their sources. 132 supported, 18 corrected, 2 removed
Keywords
Israeli election 2026; Knesset; coalition formation; Benjamin Netanyahu; Gadi Eisenkot; Arab-led parties; voter turnout; Basic Law: The Government

Abstract

Israel's election of 27 October 2026 was the first general election since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023[1,2]. Final results give the outgoing coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu 53 of 120 Knesset seats, the opposition alliance headed by Gadi Eisenkot 48, and the Arab-led parties a record 19[1,3]. A government needs the confidence of at least 61 members, so neither bloc can govern with its own seats alone[3,4]. Reported turnout was 77.9% of eligible voters[1], and the provisional figure of 77.7% was the highest since 1999[5]. Netanyahu's bloc joined by Ra'am would reach exactly 61 seats, whereas the bloc joined by Yisrael Beytenu would reach 60[1]. Both leading blocs have ruled out coalitions with the Arab-led parties, which now hold the seats that stand between either bloc and a majority[3]. Likud and allied politicians have alleged that Ra'am benefited from Qatari funding, but the Central Elections Committee said there was no basis, to its knowledge, for claims of systematic violations[6,7,8]. If every route to forming a government fails, Basic Law: The Government requires new elections on the last Tuesday before the end of 90 days[9]. The counts are not yet certified[1], and it is not known whom President Herzog will nominate first[10].

Key points

References

  1. The Times of Israel. Central Elections Committee publishes final election results, Knesset to be sworn in Nov. 10. The Times of Israel; 29 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the final seat allocation by party, the 77.9% turnout, the 5,716,665 votes cast, the 3.25% threshold, the 27 October election date, the 4 November submission to Herzog and the 10 November swearing-in. ↩
  2. Lieber D. No clear winner in Israeli election as negotiations to follow in order to form government. CBS News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports this being the first election since 7 October 2023, the roughly 20% Arab population share, the quotes from Netanyahu, Eisenkot and Golan, and its reporting of the polling date as 28 October. ↩
  3. Da Silva C. Israel's final election results show neither Netanyahu nor rival can immediately form a government. NBC News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the bloc totals, the 61-seat threshold, the certification timetable, the acting elections director's statement and the fact that both blocs ruled out Arab partners. ↩
  4. France 24. Netanyahu bloc in lead without majority in Israel election, say official results. France 24; 30 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the Likud 'Raamgate' statement, the Shin Bet's 'aspersions' caveat, Eisenkot's response and the possibility of another election. ↩
  5. Al Jazeera Staff. Israel election turnout hits 77.7%, highest since 1999. Al Jazeera; 27 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the provisional turnout of 77.7% of 7.33 million, the comparisons with 2022 and 1999, the Channel 12 estimate of Arab turnout and Ahmad Tibi's comment. ↩
  6. Rennolds N. Netanyahu bloc emerges ahead in Israeli election but fails to secure majority. Euronews; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the formation timetable, the record Arab seat total, the allegation of Qatari funding of Ra'am and the possibility of new elections. ↩
  7. RTÉ News. Netanyahu bloc ahead in vote, but well short of majority. RTÉ; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Likud statement, the Qatari funding allegation, Eisenkot's quote, the Shin Bet caveat, Dean Livne's comment and the three arrests. ↩
  8. Bligh H. Netanyahu's Likud party alleges interference and fraud in Israel's election. Euronews; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Netanyahu's X post, the Tibi visit claim, the election committee's statement and Shin Bet request, and the responses of Abbas, the Joint List, Qatar and Herzog. ↩
  9. Knesset. Basic Law: The Government (2001). WIPO Lex (World Intellectual Property Organization); 2001. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the legal sequence for forming a government: presidential consultation within seven days, 28 days plus up to 14, a second nominee, the 21-day majority request and early elections within 90 days. ↩
  10. Neev K. Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu's Likud remains Israel's biggest party. The Jerusalem Post; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Liberman's quote and the Shin Bet investigation into suspected Qatari and Turkish funding aimed at Arab turnout. ↩
  11. Al Jazeera Staff. Five key takeaways from Israel's parliamentary elections. Al Jazeera; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 60,000 overseas voters, soldiers' turnout, the Arab parties' previous 10 seats, the 42-day formation window and the quotes from Eisenkot and Netanyahu. ↩
  12. Jfeed Staff. Right demands Ra'am disqualification over bribery claims. Jfeed; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the right-wing letter's signatories, quote, demands, 24-hour deadline and the earlier Arab turnout figures it cited. ↩

A high-turnout vote without a governing majority

By 29 October 2026, Israel's Central Elections Committee had finished counting the votes for the 26th Knesset, a parliament of 120 members[1,2]. The parties of the outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 seats. The opposition alliance headed by Gadi Eisenkot won 48, and the two Arab-led lists, the Joint List and Ra'am, won 19 between them[1,2]. A government needs the confidence of at least 61 members, so neither bloc can govern with its own seats alone[1,3]. Netanyahu's Likud is still the largest single party, with 27 seats[2,3].

Turnout was exceptionally high. The final reported figure was 77.9% of eligible voters, with 5,716,665 ballots cast[2]. The committee's provisional figure of 77.7% was 7.1 percentage points above the 70.63% recorded in 2022 and the highest since 1999[4]. None of the sources explains the gap between the two figures.

This was the first general election since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023[5]. Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker prime minister while the parties negotiate[6].

How the Basic Law turns seats into a government

Basic Law: The Government requires the President, after consulting the party groups, to give one member the task of forming a government within seven days of the results being published[7]. That member has 28 days, which the President may extend by up to 14 days in total[7,8]. If the attempt fails, a second member may be given 28 days, and if every route fails the law requires new elections on the last Tuesday before the end of 90 days[7]. According to The Times of Israel, the official results are to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog on 4 November 2026 and the new Knesset sworn in on 10 November[2]. Herzog will then consult each party's chair on who has the best chance of forming a government[1].

Herzog will make that choice while Netanyahu's request for a pardon in his corruption trial is still before him[9,10].

The arithmetic is tight. The Netanyahu bloc plus Yisrael Beytenu would reach 60 seats, while the Netanyahu bloc plus Ra'am would reach exactly 61[2]. Eisenkot's alliance without Yisrael Beytenu but with both Arab lists would also reach 60[2]. Avigdor Liberman has said the only coalition he would consider is one 'made up exclusively of Zionist parties, including Likud without Bibi'[11]. ABC News judged that if Netanyahu relied on Arab votes he would probably lose his settler-aligned partners, whereas the opposition has a viable route to 61 with Arab support[12].

A shared security doctrine and its limits

Eisenkot served 41 years in the army, was its chief of staff from 2015 to 2019 and founded Yashar in 2025[13]. According to a Reuters profile, he regards 'two states for two peoples' as 'a mistake' and insists on Israeli security control between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean[13]. His case against Netanyahu is about results rather than direction. Of destroying Hamas's military wing he said: 'We decided to achieve this within a year. Over three years have passed, and it hasn't happened'[13].

In July 2024 the Knesset passed, by 68 votes to 9, a non-binding resolution stating that a Palestinian state would be 'an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens'[14,15]. Al Jazeera quoted Mustafa Barghouti as observing that no Zionist party had voted against it[14]. Writing for War on the Rocks, Dana El Kurd argues that the two camps have 'only peripheral disagreements on Palestinian rights'. She adds that a Netanyahu defeat could still remove Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from posts that control the police, prisons and the administration of the West Bank[6].

Arab voters, coalition arithmetic and the fraud allegations

According to the Israeli broadcaster Channel 12, Arab turnout rose to about 80%, five percentage points above the community's previous record, set in 1999[4,16]. Arab-led parties held 10 seats in the outgoing Knesset and now hold 19, a record[2,8,17]. Once early results came in, Mansour Abbas, the leader of Ra'am, said that 'with the numbers we have now, there is no government', and he indicated that Ra'am was in contact with both camps[16,18]. Eisenkot has refused to partner with Arab parties, and both leading blocs have ruled out such coalitions[1,13].

Netanyahu's camp challenged the legitimacy of the Arab vote. Likud declared that 'Israel's elections have been stolen!'[3,19], and alleged that Ra'am had benefited from Qatari funding used to influence voters[8,19]. A group of right-wing ministers and members of the Knesset demanded that all Ra'am votes be disqualified[20]. The Shin Bet is investigating suspected funding from Qatar and Turkey aimed at raising Arab turnout, and it stressed that the inquiry was not meant to 'cast aspersions or place blame on an entire sector'[3,11,19]. The Central Elections Committee said there was 'no basis, to its knowledge, for claims of systematic violations'[21]. The letter's statistical argument is weakened by the committee's own figures, which show turnout rising across the whole electorate to its highest level since 1999[2,4]. None of the sources reports published evidence of systematic fraud.

Regional readings and what remains uncertain

Outside Israel, many observers expect little change in policy whoever forms the government. The War on the Rocks contributors describe the opposition's choice as one between a unity government with Netanyahu and a coalition resting on Arab parties, an option most Jewish opposition members find politically unpalatable[6].

Much remains uncertain. The counts are complete but not yet certified, and the committee is checking for errors until 4 November[2]. The estimate of Arab turnout comes from a single broadcaster[4,16]. It is not known whom Herzog will nominate first, or whether Liberman and Eisenkot will soften their stated refusals[11]. If talks fail, observers say another election is possible[3,8].

References

  1. Da Silva C. Israel's final election results show neither Netanyahu nor rival can immediately form a government. NBC News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the bloc totals, the 61-seat threshold, the certification timetable, the acting elections director's statement and the fact that both blocs ruled out Arab partners. ↩
  2. The Times of Israel. Central Elections Committee publishes final election results, Knesset to be sworn in Nov. 10. The Times of Israel; 29 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the final seat allocation by party, the 77.9% turnout, the 5,716,665 votes cast, the 3.25% threshold, the 27 October election date, the 4 November submission to Herzog and the 10 November swearing-in. ↩
  3. France 24. Netanyahu bloc in lead without majority in Israel election, say official results. France 24; 30 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the Likud 'Raamgate' statement, the Shin Bet's 'aspersions' caveat, Eisenkot's response and the possibility of another election. ↩
  4. Al Jazeera Staff. Israel election turnout hits 77.7%, highest since 1999. Al Jazeera; 27 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the provisional turnout of 77.7% of 7.33 million, the comparisons with 2022 and 1999, the Channel 12 estimate of Arab turnout and Ahmad Tibi's comment. ↩
  5. Lieber D. No clear winner in Israeli election as negotiations to follow in order to form government. CBS News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports this being the first election since 7 October 2023, the roughly 20% Arab population share, the quotes from Netanyahu, Eisenkot and Golan, and its reporting of the polling date as 28 October. ↩
  6. El Kurd D, Vatanka A, Itani F, Zelin AY, Koplow M. What Israel's Election Results Mean for the Middle East and Beyond. War on the Rocks; 29 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Netanyahu's caretaker status, the opposition's choice between a unity government and Arab support, El Kurd's argument on Palestinian rights and ministerial portfolios, regional military fronts and the 27 October election date. ↩
  7. Knesset. Basic Law: The Government (2001). WIPO Lex (World Intellectual Property Organization); 2001. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the legal sequence for forming a government: presidential consultation within seven days, 28 days plus up to 14, a second nominee, the 21-day majority request and early elections within 90 days. ↩
  8. Rennolds N. Netanyahu bloc emerges ahead in Israeli election but fails to secure majority. Euronews; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the formation timetable, the record Arab seat total, the allegation of Qatari funding of Ra'am and the possibility of new elections. ↩
  9. The New Arab. Israel president says hasn't decided on Netanyahu pardon after Trump jab. The New Arab; 12 Feb 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports Herzog's statement that the pardon request was under Justice Ministry review, Trump's letter, Netanyahu being the first sitting prime minister on trial, and his description of the case as political persecution. ↩
  10. Blum M. Netanyahu pardon plea seen as bid to ensure survival ahead of 2026 vote. Al-Monitor; 3 Dec 2025. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the late-November 2025 submission of the pardon request covering three corruption cases and Netanyahu's denial of wrongdoing. ↩
  11. Neev K. Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu's Likud remains Israel's biggest party. The Jerusalem Post; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Liberman's quote and the Shin Bet investigation into suspected Qatari and Turkish funding aimed at Arab turnout. ↩
  12. Brennan D, El-Bawab N. Israel final election results: Netanyahu's bloc maintains lead but does not secure majority. ABC News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports ABC's assessment of the coalition routes, the Joint List's statement and its reporting of the polling date as 29 October. ↩
  13. Cornwell A, Lubell M. Eisenkot offers hawkish alternative to Netanyahu for Israeli PM. Al-Monitor (Reuters); 23 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Eisenkot's biography, family losses, positions on Palestinian statehood, Iran and Hamas, his refusal of Arab partners, and Israel's rejection of the UN genocide finding. ↩
  14. Al Jazeera. Israel's Knesset votes to reject Palestinian statehood. Al Jazeera; 18 Jul 2024. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 68-9 vote, the resolution's wording, the absence of Zionist votes against it and Lapid's party walking out. ↩
  15. VOA News. Israeli parliament votes to oppose formation of Palestinian state. Voice of America; 18 Jul 2024. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copyCorroborates the July 2024 resolution and its 68-9 vote. ↩
  16. Al Jazeera Staff. Arab parties on course for 17 seats in Israel election, early results show. Al Jazeera; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 21% population share, the terminology, the record Arab turnout, the discriminatory-laws claim and Abbas's 'no government' quote. ↩
  17. Al Jazeera Staff. Five key takeaways from Israel's parliamentary elections. Al Jazeera; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 60,000 overseas voters, soldiers' turnout, the Arab parties' previous 10 seats, the 42-day formation window and the quotes from Eisenkot and Netanyahu. ↩
  18. Narayan M. 'Arrive With an Open Mind': Israeli President Herzog Urges Party Leaders Ahead of Coalition Talks. Republic World; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Herzog's quotes, Justice Sohlberg's role in announcing the results and Abbas's contacts with both camps. ↩
  19. RTÉ News. Netanyahu bloc ahead in vote, but well short of majority. RTÉ; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Likud statement, the Qatari funding allegation, Eisenkot's quote, the Shin Bet caveat, Dean Livne's comment and the three arrests. ↩
  20. Jfeed Staff. Right demands Ra'am disqualification over bribery claims. Jfeed; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the right-wing letter's signatories, quote, demands, 24-hour deadline and the earlier Arab turnout figures it cited. ↩
  21. Bligh H. Netanyahu's Likud party alleges interference and fraud in Israel's election. Euronews; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Netanyahu's X post, the Tibi visit claim, the election committee's statement and Shin Bet request, and the responses of Abbas, the Joint List, Qatar and Herzog. ↩

Abstract

Israel's election of 27 October 2026 was the first general election since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023[1,2]. Final results give the outgoing coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu 53 of 120 Knesset seats, the opposition alliance headed by Gadi Eisenkot 48, and the Arab-led parties a record 19[1,3]. A government needs the confidence of at least 61 members, so neither bloc can govern with its own seats alone[3,4]. Reported turnout was 77.9% of eligible voters[1], and the provisional figure of 77.7% was the highest since 1999[5]. Netanyahu's bloc joined by Ra'am would reach exactly 61 seats, whereas the bloc joined by Yisrael Beytenu would reach 60[1]. Both leading blocs have ruled out coalitions with the Arab-led parties, which now hold the seats that stand between either bloc and a majority[3]. Likud and allied politicians have alleged that Ra'am benefited from Qatari funding, but the Central Elections Committee said there was no basis, to its knowledge, for claims of systematic violations[6,7,8]. If every route to forming a government fails, Basic Law: The Government requires new elections on the last Tuesday before the end of 90 days[9]. The counts are not yet certified[1], and it is not known whom President Herzog will nominate first[10].

1A record turnout returns a parliament without a majority

By 29 October 2026, Israel's Central Elections Committee had finished counting the votes cast for the 26th Knesset, the country's single-chamber parliament of 120 members[1,3]. The parties of the outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 seats. The opposition alliance headed by Gadi Eisenkot won 48, and the two Arab-led lists, the Joint List and Ra'am, won 19 between them[1,3]. A government needs the confidence of at least 61 members, so neither bloc can govern with its own seats alone[3,4]. Netanyahu's Likud is still the largest single party, with 27 seats[1,4].

The committee's figures, as reported by The Times of Israel, give 21 seats to Yashar, the new party Eisenkot founded. Together (B'Yachad in Hebrew), the joint list of the former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, won 12. The Joint List won 11, and The Democrats, the merged Labor and Meretz list led by Yair Golan, won eight[1,11,12]. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, also won eight, and Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu won seven[1,12]. On the governing side, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism won seven seats each, while Shas and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party won six each[1,12]. Three lists fell below the 3.25% threshold needed to enter parliament, among them The Reservists with 2.7% of the vote[1].

Turnout was exceptionally high. The final reported figure was 77.9% of eligible voters, with 5,716,665 ballots cast[1]. On election day the committee put turnout at 77.7% of 7.33 million eligible voters. That was 7.1 percentage points above the 70.63% recorded in 2022 and the highest since 78.7% in 1999[5]. The Israel Democracy Institute, an independent research centre, also lists 77.7%[11]. None of the sources explains the 0.2-point gap between the provisional and final figures, so the safest reading is a range of 77.7% to 77.9%. More than 60,000 Israelis living abroad reportedly returned to vote, and turnout among soldiers passed 68% by late afternoon[13].

The result matters beyond the seat count. This was the first general election since the Hamas-led attack on Israel of 7 October 2023[2]. The outgoing Knesset was also the first since 1988 to serve its full term without being dissolved early[11,12]. Netanyahu stays in office as caretaker prime minister while the parties negotiate[14]. The Arab-led parties, which both leading blocs have ruled out as coalition partners, now hold the seats that stand between either bloc and a majority[3].

2How the Basic Law turns seats into a government

The process that now begins is set out in Basic Law: The Government, one of the Basic Laws that Israel uses in place of a single written constitution[9]. Section 7 requires the President, after consulting representatives of the party groups in the Knesset, to give one member the task of forming a government within seven days of the results being published[9]. That member has 28 days, which the President may extend by up to 14 days in total[6,9]. If the attempt fails, the President may give the task to a second member for a further 28 days. After that, a majority of members may ask in writing, within 21 days, for the task to go to a named member, who then has 14 days[6,9]. If every route fails, the law requires new elections on the last Tuesday before the end of 90 days[9].

According to The Times of Israel, the official results are to be submitted to President Isaac Herzog on 4 November 2026, after a period for checking errors, and the new Knesset is to be sworn in on 10 November[1]. NBC News reported the same certification deadline. After it, Herzog will consult each party's chair on who has the best chance of forming a government[3]. Justice Noam Sohlberg, who chairs the Central Elections Committee, presents the official results to the President[15]. The committee is a statutory body, but many of its 31 members are nominated by Knesset factions, and the outgoing coalition holds 18 of those seats. Dana Blander of the Israel Democracy Institute argues that this mixed political and professional design should give way to a professional elections authority[16].

'Everything must be done ... not to return to another round of elections,' Herzog said the day after the vote, and he asked party leaders to 'arrive with an open mind'[15]. Herzog will decide whom to ask first while Netanyahu's request for a pardon in his corruption trial is still before him. Netanyahu's lawyers submitted the request in late November 2025, and Herzog's office later said it was under legal review at the Ministry of Justice[17,18].

The arithmetic is tight. Adding up the committee's seat totals, the Netanyahu bloc plus Yisrael Beytenu would reach 60. Eisenkot's alliance without Yisrael Beytenu but with both Arab lists would also reach 60, while the Netanyahu bloc plus Ra'am would reach exactly 61[1]. Liberman has said the only coalition he would consider is one 'made up exclusively of Zionist parties, including Likud without Bibi'[10]. ABC News judged that if Netanyahu relied on Arab votes he would probably lose his settler-aligned partners, whereas the opposition has a viable route to 61 with Arab support[19].

3Two candidates with a shared security doctrine

Both leading candidates have been shaped by the war that began on 7 October 2023. That day, Hamas-led fighters killed about 1,200 people in Israel and took 251 hostages, according to figures reported by Reuters[20]. Reuters put the number of Palestinians killed in the Gaza war that followed at more than 74,000 in October 2026, and Al Jazeera reported over 72,000 in May 2026[20,21]. Neither report explains how the totals were compiled, and they cannot be independently verified. A ceasefire under a 20-point United States plan took hold in October 2025. In November 2025 the UN Security Council endorsed the plan by 13 votes to none, with Russia and China abstaining[22,23]. The plan provides for a board led by President Donald Trump to oversee Gaza, an international stabilisation force and loosely worded language on 'the possibility of an independent Palestinian state', a provision Israel opposes[22,23].

Eisenkot served 41 years in the army, was its chief of staff from 2015 to 2019 and founded Yashar in 2025[24]. If he became prime minister, he would be the first from the Mizrahi community, Jews with Middle Eastern and North African roots[24]. His son and two nephews have been killed fighting in Gaza since 2023[24]. According to a Reuters profile, he regards 'two states for two peoples' as 'a mistake' and insists on Israeli security control between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean. He also wants Iran prevented from gaining a military nuclear capability, by force or by diplomacy[24]. His case against Netanyahu is about results rather than direction. 'We decided to achieve this within a year. Over three years have passed, and it hasn't happened,' he said of destroying Hamas's military wing[24].

The two sides' agreement on Palestinian statehood is also on the parliamentary record. In July 2024 the Knesset passed, by 68 votes to 9, a non-binding resolution stating that a Palestinian state would be 'an existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens'[25,26]. Lapid's party walked out rather than vote, and Al Jazeera quoted Mustafa Barghouti as observing that no Zionist party from either the government or the opposition had voted against it[25].

The two camps differ on other questions. Netanyahu is the first sitting Israeli prime minister to stand trial. He faces three corruption cases, denies wrongdoing and calls the prosecution political persecution[17,18]. Trump has publicly urged that Netanyahu be pardoned, including in an address to Israel's parliament in October 2025[17]. Writing for War on the Rocks, Dana El Kurd argues that the two camps have 'only peripheral disagreements on Palestinian rights'. She adds that a Netanyahu defeat could still remove Ben-Gvir and Smotrich from posts that control the police, prisons and the administration of the West Bank, which could affect Palestinians' daily lives[14].

4Arab citizens move to the centre of coalition arithmetic

Arab citizens make up about a fifth of Israel's population of roughly 10 million. Al Jazeera puts their share at 21% and CBS News at about 20%[2,27]. Al Jazeera, like many in the community, calls them Palestinian citizens of Israel, while CBS News and most Israeli outlets say Arab citizens; both terms refer to the same population[2,27]. According to the Israeli broadcaster Channel 12, their turnout rose to about 80%, five percentage points above the community's previous record, set in 1999[5,27]. Right-wing politicians who later demanded an investigation cited Arab turnout of 53.2% at the previous election and 44.6% in 2021[28]. The 80% estimate comes from a single broadcaster, and none of the sources contains an official turnout figure by community.

That mobilisation turned into seats. Arab-led parties held 10 seats in the outgoing Knesset and now hold 19, a record[1,6,13]. Ahmad Tibi, an Arab member of the Knesset, called the community's participation 'unprecedented'[5]. Al Jazeera reports that the Knesset has passed more than 100 laws that discriminate against Palestinian citizens, a description of the grievances behind the vote that comes from that outlet and the sources it cites[27].

Ra'am has been here before. In 2021 it became the first Arab party to formally join an Israeli governing coalition, helping to remove Netanyahu after more than a decade in power, although that government lasted only about a year[29]. Before the vote, Abbas predicted that the Arab vote would 'tip the scales'. He also remarked that 'in politics you say what you want before an election and you do what you want after the election'[29]. Once early results came in, he said that 'with the numbers we have now, there is no government', and he indicated that Ra'am was in contact with both camps[15,27].

The Joint List declared itself ready for 'political cooperation to oust the Netanyahu government' and to change what it called 'racist policy'[19]. Golan, whose Democrats sit in Eisenkot's alliance, said: 'We must no longer accept Netanyahu's racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes'[2]. Netanyahu warned: 'We must not endanger Israel and establish a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties'[2]. Eisenkot has refused to partner with Arab parties, saying none of them accepts his four core principles[24]. Both leading blocs have ruled out coalitions with the Arab parties[3]. How Arab support could be organised, whether as full coalition membership, support from outside the government or abstention, is therefore the open question of the coming talks.

5Fraud allegations meet the electoral authorities

As the count neared completion, Netanyahu's camp challenged the legitimacy of the Arab vote. 'The Raamgate scandal is a political earthquake. Israel's elections have been stolen!' Likud said in a statement[4,7]. Netanyahu wrote on X that the elections 'were stolen by Arab parties that support terrorism'. He also asked why the Arab politician Ahmad Tibi had visited Qatar four days before polling day[8]. Likud alleged that Ra'am had benefited from Qatari funding used to influence voters[6,7].

A group of right-wing ministers and members of the Knesset, including the ministers Amichai Eliyahu and Amichai Chikli, wrote to Justice Sohlberg and to David Zini, head of the Shin Bet internal security service[28]. Their letter argued that 'in an unexplained manner and without any statistical logic, turnout in the Arab sector jumped drastically'. It demanded that all Ra'am votes be disqualified and that Ra'am representatives be barred from the Knesset, and it gave the authorities 24 hours to report back[28].

The official response has been measured. The Shin Bet is investigating suspected funding from Qatar and Turkey aimed at raising Arab turnout[10]. It stressed that the inquiry was not meant to 'cast aspersions or place blame on an entire sector that went out to vote in a democratic and lawful manner'[4,7]. The Central Elections Committee, which asked for the Shin Bet inquiry, said there was 'no basis, to its knowledge, for claims of systematic violations' of election integrity[8]. NBC News quoted the acting director of elections as saying there was 'no basis for allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity'[3]. Dean Livne of the committee called suggestions of widespread problems 'entirely groundless'[7]. Police arrested three suspects in what the elections committee described as an isolated local case involving cash envelopes[7].

The accused deny wrongdoing. Abbas said Ra'am had 'no connection' to any wrongdoing and welcomed an investigation, and the Joint List accused Netanyahu of trying to delegitimise the Arab vote[8]. Qatar's foreign ministry spokesman, Majed Al Ansari, called the accusations 'ridiculous and dangerous in equal measure'[8]. Eisenkot said Likud had 'embarked on a coordinated, organised campaign seeking to delegitimise the results'[7]. The letter's statistical argument is weakened by the committee's own figures, which show turnout rising across the whole electorate to its highest level since 1999[1,5]. None of the sources reports published evidence of systematic fraud.

6Regional and Palestinian readings of a narrow result

The War on the Rocks contributors note that Israeli military operations continue in southern Syria and southern Lebanon, that the country is at war with Iran and faces potential strikes from Yemen's Houthi movement, alongside the Palestinian conflict itself[14]. In their reading, the opposition faces a stark choice between a unity government with Netanyahu, against whom it campaigned, and a coalition resting on Arab parties, an option most Jewish opposition members find politically unpalatable[14].

Reuters interviews across the region found indifference and suspicion. A displaced Palestinian in Gaza said both leading candidates 'want to eradicate the Palestinian people', and an 81-year-old in Lebanon asked 'what difference does it make to me?'[20]. During the campaign, Netanyahu stressed Israel's military achievements and signalled possible joint operations against Iran with Trump[20].

Israel's international position forms the wider context. Al Jazeera reported in May 2026 that Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court and that a UN commission had concluded Israel committed genocide in Gaza[21]. Israel rejected that conclusion[24]. In the same report, Beth Oppenheim of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank, said that 'Israel is becoming more isolated'. The analyst Alon Pinkas told the outlet that Bennett and Lapid had offered little different from Netanyahu on security, saying 'they've been competing with each other to be ever more bellicose'[21]. These are assessments by analysts and by the outlet, not established findings.

The two leading candidates' own accounts of the result differ sharply. Eisenkot declared that 'the old era is over' and that 'the Israeli public has voted against Netanyahu's service as Israel's prime minister'[2,13]. Netanyahu replied that 'the Likud party is the largest party – nobody can compete with us'[13]. Both claims rest on the same figures: Likud is the largest party, but the bloc that governed from 2022 no longer has a majority[1]. Whether Netanyahu's bloc wins over Ra'am, the opposition finds a form of Arab support it can accept, or Likud joins a unity arrangement, the alternative remains another election, which observers say is possible if talks fail[4,6].

Uncertainties and open questions

Several points remain unsettled. The counts are complete but not yet certified, and the committee is checking for errors until 4 November[1]. The reported final turnout of 77.9% differs from the earlier official figure of 77.7%, and none of the sources explains the gap[1,5]. The estimate of about 80% Arab turnout comes from one broadcaster, Channel 12, and none of the sources gives an official breakdown by community[5,27]. So far the fraud allegations rest on claims by Likud and allied politicians. The Shin Bet inquiry into suspected Qatari and Turkish funding has published no findings, the committee says it knows of no systematic violation, and the only reported arrests concern a single local case[7,8,10]. The Gaza casualty totals cited come from news agencies that do not explain their methods in the cited reports, and the totals differ between sources[20,21]. It is not known whom Herzog will nominate first, whether the pending pardon request will bear on the talks, or whether Liberman and Eisenkot will soften their stated refusals[10,17].

Conclusion

The 27 October election, held on a turnout not seen since 1999, removed the outgoing coalition's majority without producing a replacement[1,5]. Netanyahu's bloc holds 53 seats and Eisenkot's 48, and the 19 seats of the Arab-led parties decide which combinations can reach 61[1]. The legal timetable is fixed. Certification is due on 4 November, the President must assign the task of forming a government within seven days of the results being published, and the first nominee has up to 42 days[1,9,13]. What is not fixed is whether the Jewish-majority parties that have ruled out Arab partners will change their position, or whether a unity government with Likud becomes the alternative[3,14]. On security and Palestinian statehood, the evidence shows the two leading candidates closer to each other than to the Arab parties whose votes may decide between them[14,24,25]. If every route fails, the Basic Law sends Israelis back to the polls within about 90 days[9].

References

  1. The Times of Israel. Central Elections Committee publishes final election results, Knesset to be sworn in Nov. 10. The Times of Israel; 29 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksSupports the final seat allocation by party, the 77.9% turnout, the 5,716,665 votes cast, the 3.25% threshold, the 27 October election date, the 4 November submission to Herzog and the 10 November swearing-in. ↩
  2. Lieber D. No clear winner in Israeli election as negotiations to follow in order to form government. CBS News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports this being the first election since 7 October 2023, the roughly 20% Arab population share, the quotes from Netanyahu, Eisenkot and Golan, and its reporting of the polling date as 28 October. ↩
  3. Da Silva C. Israel's final election results show neither Netanyahu nor rival can immediately form a government. NBC News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the bloc totals, the 61-seat threshold, the certification timetable, the acting elections director's statement and the fact that both blocs ruled out Arab partners. ↩
  4. France 24. Netanyahu bloc in lead without majority in Israel election, say official results. France 24; 30 Oct 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the Likud 'Raamgate' statement, the Shin Bet's 'aspersions' caveat, Eisenkot's response and the possibility of another election. ↩
  5. Al Jazeera Staff. Israel election turnout hits 77.7%, highest since 1999. Al Jazeera; 27 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the provisional turnout of 77.7% of 7.33 million, the comparisons with 2022 and 1999, the Channel 12 estimate of Arab turnout and Ahmad Tibi's comment. ↩
  6. Rennolds N. Netanyahu bloc emerges ahead in Israeli election but fails to secure majority. Euronews; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the formation timetable, the record Arab seat total, the allegation of Qatari funding of Ra'am and the possibility of new elections. ↩
  7. RTÉ News. Netanyahu bloc ahead in vote, but well short of majority. RTÉ; 30 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the Likud statement, the Qatari funding allegation, Eisenkot's quote, the Shin Bet caveat, Dean Livne's comment and the three arrests. ↩
  8. Bligh H. Netanyahu's Likud party alleges interference and fraud in Israel's election. Euronews; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Netanyahu's X post, the Tibi visit claim, the election committee's statement and Shin Bet request, and the responses of Abbas, the Joint List, Qatar and Herzog. ↩
  9. Knesset. Basic Law: The Government (2001). WIPO Lex (World Intellectual Property Organization); 2001. Court or legal document✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the legal sequence for forming a government: presidential consultation within seven days, 28 days plus up to 14, a second nominee, the 21-day majority request and early elections within 90 days. ↩
  10. Neev K. Israel Election 2026: Netanyahu's Likud remains Israel's biggest party. The Jerusalem Post; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports Liberman's quote and the Shin Bet investigation into suspected Qatari and Turkish funding aimed at Arab turnout. ↩
  11. Israel Democracy Institute. 2026 Elections. Israel Democracy Institute; 2026. Reference work✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 77.7% turnout, the 7,331,981 eligible voters, the party alliances including Together and The Democrats, and the first on-schedule election since 1988. ↩
  12. Wikipedia contributors. 2026 Israeli legislative election. Wikipedia. Reference work✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the party leaders' names and the 25th Knesset being the first since 1988 to serve its full term. ↩
  13. Al Jazeera Staff. Five key takeaways from Israel's parliamentary elections. Al Jazeera; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 60,000 overseas voters, soldiers' turnout, the Arab parties' previous 10 seats, the 42-day formation window and the quotes from Eisenkot and Netanyahu. ↩
  14. El Kurd D, Vatanka A, Itani F, Zelin AY, Koplow M. What Israel's Election Results Mean for the Middle East and Beyond. War on the Rocks; 29 Oct 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Netanyahu's caretaker status, the opposition's choice between a unity government and Arab support, El Kurd's argument on Palestinian rights and ministerial portfolios, regional military fronts and the 27 October election date. ↩
  15. Narayan M. 'Arrive With an Open Mind': Israeli President Herzog Urges Party Leaders Ahead of Coalition Talks. Republic World; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Herzog's quotes, Justice Sohlberg's role in announcing the results and Abbas's contacts with both camps. ↩
  16. Blander D. The Central Elections Committee: What You Need to Know Ahead of the 2026 Elections. Israel Democracy Institute; 23 Jul 2026. Analysis or opinion✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the committee's 31 members, the coalition's 18 seats on it and the recommendation for a professional elections authority. ↩
  17. The New Arab. Israel president says hasn't decided on Netanyahu pardon after Trump jab. The New Arab; 12 Feb 2026. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports Herzog's statement that the pardon request was under Justice Ministry review, Trump's letter, Netanyahu being the first sitting prime minister on trial, and his description of the case as political persecution. ↩
  18. Blum M. Netanyahu pardon plea seen as bid to ensure survival ahead of 2026 vote. Al-Monitor; 3 Dec 2025. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the late-November 2025 submission of the pardon request covering three corruption cases and Netanyahu's denial of wrongdoing. ↩
  19. Brennan D, El-Bawab N. Israel final election results: Netanyahu's bloc maintains lead but does not secure majority. ABC News; 29 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports ABC's assessment of the coalition routes, the Joint List's statement and its reporting of the polling date as 29 October. ↩
  20. Sheasha S, Al Kerdi A, Abu Alkas D. Israel's high-turnout vote brushed aside in rest of the Middle East. Al-Monitor; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the figures of 1,200 killed and 251 hostages on 7 October, the more than 74,000 Palestinian deaths, the regional reactions and Netanyahu's remarks on Iran. ↩
  21. Speakman Cordall S. Could a leadership change undo Israel's international isolation?. Al Jazeera; 17 May 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the figure of over 72,000 deaths, the ICC warrant, the UN commission's finding, Oppenheim's quote and the assessment of Bennett and Lapid on security. ↩
  22. Morley N. U.N. Security Council to vote on Trump's Gaza peace plan. Vatican News; 17 Nov 2025. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the October 2025 ceasefire under the US plan and Israel's opposition to its Palestinian statehood provision. ↩
  23. Africanews. US Gaza ceasefire plan approved by UN Security Council. Africanews; 18 Nov 2025. News reportSite blocks checksArchived copySupports the 13-0 Security Council vote with Russian and Chinese abstentions and the plan's main provisions. ↩
  24. Cornwell A, Lubell M. Eisenkot offers hawkish alternative to Netanyahu for Israeli PM. Al-Monitor (Reuters); 23 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Eisenkot's biography, family losses, positions on Palestinian statehood, Iran and Hamas, his refusal of Arab partners, and Israel's rejection of the UN genocide finding. ↩
  25. Al Jazeera. Israel's Knesset votes to reject Palestinian statehood. Al Jazeera; 18 Jul 2024. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 68-9 vote, the resolution's wording, the absence of Zionist votes against it and Lapid's party walking out. ↩
  26. VOA News. Israeli parliament votes to oppose formation of Palestinian state. Voice of America; 18 Jul 2024. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copyCorroborates the July 2024 resolution and its 68-9 vote. ↩
  27. Al Jazeera Staff. Arab parties on course for 17 seats in Israel election, early results show. Al Jazeera; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports the 21% population share, the terminology, the record Arab turnout, the discriminatory-laws claim and Abbas's 'no government' quote. ↩
  28. Jfeed Staff. Right demands Ra'am disqualification over bribery claims. Jfeed; 28 Oct 2026. News report✓ Link checkedSupports the right-wing letter's signatories, quote, demands, 24-hour deadline and the earlier Arab turnout figures it cited. ↩
  29. England A. Mansour Abbas: The Arab kingmaker eyeing Israel's 2026 election. The Irish Times; 22 Dec 2025. News report✓ Link checkedArchived copySupports Ra'am's 2021 entry into government, the short life of that coalition and Abbas's pre-election quotes. ↩